Yesterday, we hit on two of our three picks yet again, putting us at 4-for-6 over the last two days. We hit on one Over and one Under yesterday at values of +120 and +124, respectively. We’re on a roll and looking to bring you that level of value once again.
Today’s Betting Lines
Here are the odds on Caesars Sportsbook for the games we selected for our Thursday prop picks. The value is spread out today, so be sure to check out the lines on the other top sports betting apps on our MLB odds page. Last but not least, we’re on fire bringing the value right to your fingertips, so take a look at the best MLB sports betting promos on the market to get in on the action.
MLB Strikeout Props (8/10/23): David Fletcher
Here are our best MLB strikeout props for Thursday.
Reese Olson Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+115 on Caesars)
Reese Olson hasn’t pitched six strikeouts in a game in quite some time. However, he has pitched at least five Ks in three of his last six starts for the Tigers. On the flip side, he is up against the Twins tonight, who have allowed at least five strikeouts to five of the last six pitchers they faced. At +115, we like Olson on this line simply because the Twins are the worst in the league at striking out. Also, Olson faced them once already this year. In the matchup, he tossed nine Ks and only allowed one run in a 3-2 win for the Tigers.
Additionally, Olson’s primary pitch is the slider, which draws a chase percentage six points above league average. That’s going to be incredibly impactful considering of the Twins’ 14 batters with 150 or more plate appearances, 11 of them hit the slider at .230 or much lower. Combine that with his 95-mph four-seamer that is limiting hitters to a .186 batting average, you have to like his odds of covering this wager.
Olson is a rookie, so he is working on finding himself as a professional, but leaning on the Twins to cover a strikeout prop isn’t a sound investment this season. So, look for Olson to go Over his listed total tonight.
James Paxton Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+118 on FanDuel)
James Paxton is on track for one of the best seasons in his career. He is posting one of his best ERA and WHIP totals to date, and he has a 6-3 record for the season. As primarily a fastball pitcher, Paxton got off to a hot start this season in the strikeout category. In the first two months of his season for the Red Sox, he posted totals of 27 and 34 Ks in back-to-back months.
Last month, he only posted 17, and in his first start in August, he only tossed four Ks. Between his four-seamer (57% usage rate) and cutter (20% usage rate), he is tossing fastballs 77% of the time. At this point of the season, fatigue is a factor despite getting full rest between starts. Additionally, he has only tossed seven or more Ks once in his last five starts.
The Royals don’t have the most talented lineup, but they are able to pile up runs, and they have done so as of late. In their last 10 games, they have scored at least six runs in five of them. Paxton’s hits and runs allowed have been up recently, and that may come into play tonight. At +118 not to go Over seven strikeouts, we like the Royals to keep Paxton at bay.
Hunter Brown Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+125 on BetMGM)
The Astros’ sophomore is growing up quickly. With youth on his side, he had the tendency to lean on his fastballs more than he should have, which got him into trouble in the earned runs category. Now, he is doing a much better job with his location and in mixing in pitches. It hasn’t equated to a lot of strikeouts, but he has cut his earned run totals down in his last couple of starts, and the Astros won all three games.
As talented as the Orioles lineup is, Brown has a few pitches in his arsenal to keep their bats quiet. His slider and curveball both draw chase percentages above league average, and six of the Orioles’ 11 batters with more than 150 plate appearances hit the slider below .240 and six hit the curveball below .240. His combination of finesse and power makes him a different challenge than his teammates Cristian Javier and Framber Valdez, who the Orioles have had success against in the current series with the Astros.
Last but not least, the Astros have won the first two games of the current three games series. Baltimore will certainly be looking to avoid a sweep and avoid giving up more ground to the Rays, who are now just two games back in their division. The slightest increase of aggressiveness at the plate could impact the betting line tonight against a pitcher with as deep of a repertoire as Brown’s. At +125, we really like the value here.
MLB Strikeout Props (8/10/23): Ken Bates
Kenta Maeda Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-155 on BetMGM)
The veteran Kenta Maeda takes the mound this afternoon for the Minnesota Twins’ road trip against the Detroit Tigers. The Twins look to extend their 4.5-game lead over Cleveland for first in the AL Central. Division rival Detroit, however, is eight games back and fighting to remain in contention for the postseason.
Maeda had a rough start to the season but has come on as of late. He posted a 2.93 ERA in the month of July and he’s one of our picks for today’s MLB strikeout props. BetMGM currently lists his total at 5.5 but with a bit of juice. Maeda should have no issue hitting that total today, as he’s posted six or more strikeouts in six straight games. Maeda will face a Detroit lineup with the 10th-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the last three weeks.
The Twins pitcher tossed eight strikeouts in his last start against the Tigers back in late June. Despite the heavy juice on his strikeout prop bet, we’re confident Maeda hits the Over again this afternoon.
James Paxton Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+105 on BetMGM)
The Boston Red Sox play the fourth leg of a home stand against the Kansas City Royals tonight. James Paxton makes the start today for the Red Sox. Boston is 11 games behind in a stacked AL East but is just five games behind a Wild Card berth. Despite facing an inconsistent Royals’ squad, the Under is the play to make with Paxton for today’s MLB strikeout props.
Paxton has stayed under 6.5 strikeouts in four of his last starts on the mound. Although the Royals’ postseason aspirations look bleak, Kansas City batters have posted the third-fewest strikeouts over the last month.
One of our favorite MLB strikeout prop bets to make today, you can currently get the under at plus-money with BetMGM Sportsbook.
Zack Littell Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-110 on BetMGM)
The Tampa Bay Rays have been one of the most exciting teams in the MLB this season. Just two games behind the Baltimore Orioles in the AL East, the Rays won’t be content with just a Wild Card. Zack Littell will take the mound for the Rays tonight against a struggling St. Louis Cardinals squad that is sitting in last place in the NL Central.
One of our pitcher strikeout props for today, we’re taking the Under for Littell. He’s totaled more than 3.5 strikeouts in just two of his 15 games since being dealt to Tampa from Boston. Despite the Cardinals’ struggles this season, St. Louis has still managed to post the seventh-fewest strikeouts in the last month. On the season, they’ve averaged the sixth-highest batting average against right-handed pitchers.
Although it’s a pretty low total, we’re picking the Under in Littell’s strikeout props for tonight’s game against the Cardinals.