Yesterday, we hit on three of our six MLB strikeout props. We hit on two Over picks and an Under with values of +115, +118, and +125. That’s the value we sought out for our picks today as well. This is a hot week for us, so check out our picks for Friday below and get in on the action.
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Today’s Betting Lines
Here are the odds on FanDuel Sportsbook for the games we pulled our MLB strikeout props from for Friday. You can check out our MLB odds page for the lines from all the top sports betting apps for tonight’s games. Last but not least, take a quick look at the best sports betting promos on the market to get in on the flaming hot action we’ve brought to you over the last couple of days.
MLB Strikeout Props (8/11/23)
Here are our best MLB strikeout props for Friday.
Aaron Civale Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+116 on FanDuel)
Aaron Civale will take the mound for the Rays tonight against the Guardians, who he spent the first five years of his career with. Civale’s line is 4.5 Ks tonight, and he has only pitched five or more Ks in six of his 14 starts this season, so five is a pretty aggressive number, especially against the best team in the league at avoiding strikeouts.
The Guardians have a team chase percentage four points above league average. However, they also hit pitches outside of the zone eight percentage points higher than league average. That’s the biggest reason why pitchers have to be exceptional to compile a large number of strikeouts against them.
The final reason we recommend taking Civale on the Under is that his primary pitch is the cutter, which he uses at a 38% clip. The Guardians have eight batters with more than 150 plate appearances this season and only one of them hit the cutter at a clip below .250. Additionally, Civale’s secondary pitch is the curveball, which he tosses 25% of the time. Only three of the Guardians’ eight batters with more than 150 plate appearances this season hit the curveball below .250.
Javier Assad Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+108 on FanDuel)
The Cubs’ rookie relief pitcher is coming off a 3.2-inning, three-strikeout performance in an 8-6 victory over the Atlanta Braves. His reward for his performance is his second consecutive start of the season, which will take place tonight against the Toronto Blue Jays. He has registered at least one strikeout in all but one of his appearances this year, and the game he didn’t was in an outing where he only faced one batter. He has tallied three or more strikeouts five times this season, all of which were in only three innings of play or less.
The Blue Jays are ninth best at avoiding strikeouts in MLB, but they have surrendered at least eight Ks in seven of their last 10 outings. At least for the moment, they seem to be more vulnerable to striking out, which is good news for this betting line tonight.
What will also help him cover his line for tonight is his array of fastball pitches. He uses the sinker, cutter, and four-seamer at clips of 29%, 29%, and 20%, respectively. His sinker draws a chase percentage four points above league average, and his cutter is limiting batters to a .190 batting average. His mix of fastballs during a full start should help keep the eyes of the Blue Jays’ batters moving just enough to make him formidable on the mound tonight and cover this wager.
Charlie Morton Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+120 on FanDuel)
Charlie Morton is a critical piece to the Braves’ dynamic pitching rotation. However, he hasn’t been quite the same late in the year in the strikeout category. After back-to-back 37 total strikeout months, Morton only registered 28 in July. In his last seven starts, he only tossed six or more twice. He has also allowed at least three runs in his last four trips to the mound.
Friday will mark the third time Morton has faced the Mets in 2023. In both games, the Mets registered four runs on Morton and didn’t allow him to see the sixth inning. Morton’s strikeout totals in the games were six and five. The game he registered six Ks was much earlier in the season when his fastball was a lot more effective.
The Mets are the fourth-best in the league at avoiding strikeouts. They are also one of the more disciplined teams at the plate, registering a chase percentage two points under league average, and they also make contact outside of the zone at a higher clip than league average. Morton’s primary pitch is the curveball, which is one of the best in the league, but his four-seamer is needed to keep batters off balance, and it isn’t currently getting by many.
Morton’s four-seamer is being hit a .317 average largely due to placement. He puts it in the zone above league average, so if it’s not properly located, that’s a recipe for disaster.
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