As we get going on a fresh week of baseball betting, we’ll focus on picks with even-money odds or better. For our MLB strikeout props for tonight, Monday, Aug. 14, we offer a trio of Overs, notably two aces on AL West rivals fighting for the top spot in the division.
Today’s Betting Lines
BetMGM Sportsbook brought the value today, so we used them to provide the odds for the games we chose our MLB strikeout props from on Monday. You can check out the lines from all the top sports betting apps for all of today’s contests on our MLB odds page. Also, you can get in on the flaming hot action that MLB strikeout props offer by claiming one of the current sports betting promos on the market.
MLB Strikeout Props (8/14/23)
Here are our MLB strikeout props for Monday at the best MLB betting sites available.
Miles Mikolas Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+108 on FanDuel)
This is the second time we’re picking the Cardinals’ right-hander in two weeks. The last time we picked him, it was his first game back from a five-game suspension, and he covered his Over pick for us with a seven-strikeout performance against the Twins. He followed that game up with a five-strikeout performance against the Rays. So, in his two starts since returning, he has hovered right around five strikeouts a game and only needs one more against a top-10 strikeout team in the league to go Over his total tonight.
We like him to get that extra strikeout for a variety of reasons, including that he has faced 10 of the A’s current batters for a total of 36 at bats in his career, and he held them to a .167 batting average and tossed 14 Ks in those battles. Another significant reason we like Mikolas to go Over is his wide array of pitch types. He uses the sinker, four-seamer, slider, and curveball at clips of 27%, 24%, 24%, and 20%, respectively, making him one of the most balanced pitchers in baseball.
His sinker and four-seamer draw chase percentages above league average. His slider and curveball aren’t as dominant, but his slider should perform above average tonight. The A’s have 10 batters with more than 150 plate appearances this season, and nine of them struggle significantly to hit the slider. That gives Mikolas at least three pitches to attack the A’s struggling lineup.
Max Scherzer Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+100 on BetMGM)
The Rangers’ newly acquired ace Max Scherzer hasn’t pitched less than six strikeouts in his last 10 starts, and he has pitched at least eight Ks in five of his last 10. Today, he’ll take the mound on six days’ rest against the Angels, who are sixth worst in the league at striking out. Scherzer is no stranger to six of the Angels’ current batters, facing six of them 105 times and is only allowing a .143 batting average. He also tossed 35 strikeouts in the matchups. That’s a 33.3% strikeout percentage, about 12 points above the 2023 league average.
Taking an ace against struggling lineups with odds like +100 is usually always a low-risk, high-reward betting line, and we believe this option fits the bill. That’s especially so when the pitcher is as skilled as Scherzer, who mixes in skillful use of offspeed and breaking ball pitches to accommodate his four-seamer. Scherzer uses the slider, changeup, and curveball at clips of 18%, 14%, and 12%, respectively. Each of the pitches draw chase percentages at or above league average.
Meanwhile, the Angels have a chase percentage slightly above league average and make contact on pitches outside of the zone below league average. The Angels have 14 batters with more than 150 plate appearances this season, and nine of them hit the slider below .250 while seven of them hit the curveball below .250. That sets up Scherzer well to go Over his listed total tonight.
Framber Valdez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100 on BetMGM)
The Astros’ ace Framber Valdez has struggled in the earned runs department in his last few starts, surrendering six runs in two of his last three outings. However, the Cy Young candidate has only had back-to-back bad outings once all season long. For the bulk of the season, he has followed up games with four or fewer strikeouts with a dominating performance.
Back in July, the Rangers rocked Valdez for six runs in less than three innings. He responded with a perfect game against the Guardians on only 93 pitches. In his very last outing, he made it seven innings against the Orioles, but he allowed six runs and only tossed three strikeouts. His history suggests he’ll figure things out tonight against the Marlins.
Additionally, despite his recent struggles, he has only tossed less than five strikeouts in five of his 22 starts in 2023. Last but not least, the curveball and changeup are two of Valdez’s biggest weapons to keep batters guessing and maximize his sinker. He uses the curveball 26% of the time and draws a chase percentage eight points above league average. He uses the changeup 13% of the time and is only allowing batters an average of .215 when he uses it.
The Marlins have 12 batters with more than 150 plate appearances. Seven of them hit the changeup at .220 or below and seven hit the curveball at .210 or below.