Today, there are a few lines we arsurprised to see available, so, of course, we had to share them with you. Our MLB strikeout props for Wednesday include two Under picks and one Over, all for under-the-radar pitchers. Check out our picks below to get in on the action we’re suggesting for Wednesday’s contests.
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Today’s Betting Lines
Here are odds from the best sports betting apps for the contests we pulled our prop picks from. However, it’s a full schedule tonight, so be sure to check our MLB odds page for the lines to all of Wednesday’s contests. Also, check out the wide variety of sports betting promos up for grabs on the market.
MLB Strikeout Props Picks (8/16/23)
Here are our MLB strikeout props picks for Wednesday, Aug. 16.
Tylor Megill Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+126 on FanDuel)
Considering the season Tylor Megill has had for the Mets, this line is pretty surprising. Megill has tossed five or more strikeouts only four times in 17 starts this year, so plus-money odds on the Under is worth consideration. He faced the Pirates once already this season, and it went woefully bad. He allowed seven runs in 3.2 innings and tossed only one strikeout in the matchup.
Additional reasons to take him Under is that Megill has faced five of the Pirates’ batters throughout his career for a total of 22 at- bats. Throughout his career, he is allowing a .409 average to those batters and struck them out only three times total. Also, Megill uses the four-seamer, slider, and changeup at clips of 54%, 21%, and 17%, respectively. Batters are getting to each of his three pitches with averages of .321, .280, and .284.
Additionally, he draws a strike and chase percentage above league average only on his slider, and as a team, the Pirates own a chase percentage three points below league average. One pitch won’t be enough for him to go Over his listed total tonight.
Andrew Abbott Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+112 on FanDuel)
Andrew Abbott didn’t begin starting for the Reds until June this season. Since then, he has compiled some pretty impressive strikeout performances, including a 12-strikeout outing against the Pirates and a 10-strikeout performance against the Rockies. However, he hasn’t been quite as dominant against teams above average in the strikeout category. For instance, he pitched only two against the Astros, three against the Nationals, and four against the Cardinals.
Each of those teams are top 10 in MLB at avoiding the strikeout. Today, Abbott is up against the Guardians, who lead the league at avoiding strikeouts – 27 fewer than the second-place Nationals. Going Over is going to be difficult for Abbott because the Guardians are effective hitting pitches outside the zone. As a team, they have a chase contact percentage eight percentage points higher than the league average.
Also, Abbott’s most used pitch is the four-seamer, which he is using at a 49% clip this season, and it averages only about 92.7 mph. That’s far from the most electric fastball. Additionally, only two of the eight Guardians batters with 150 or more plate attempts hit the four-seamer below .260. Styles matter significantly in handicapping pitcher props, and this one doesn’t seem to be in Abbott’s favor tonight.
Paul Blackburn Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+120 on Caesars)
Paul Blackburn has tossed at least five strikeouts in nine of his 12 starts this season. That includes six against the Braves, five against the Astros, and nine against the Rays, which proves he can get it done against tougher lineups. In his last start, he tallied only three, but that was against the Nationals, who are second-best in MLB at avoiding strikeouts.
Three is the lowest number of strikeouts he has tossed in a game all season long. We like him to get the extra two strikeouts he needs thanks to his pitch selection. He is one of the more balanced pitchers, so he’ll have a plethora of options to help him keep the Cardinals lineup at bay tonight. Blackburn’s top four pitches are the sinker (22%), cutter (21%), slider (20%), and four-seamer (16%).
His cutter draws a chase percentage three points above league average and a strike percentage one point above league average. The slider draws a chase percentage eight points above league average and a strike percentage two points above league average. Most importantly, eight of the Cardinals’ 12 batters with more than 150 plate appearances struggle to hit the slider. That plays well to his odds of covering this wager tonight.
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