Today, we’re buying offense, so each of our MLB strikeout props for Tuesday, Aug. 22 are Under selections that offer even-money odds or higher. Yesterday, four of the nine games had teams score in double-digits, which signals a little pitcher fatigue as the regular season nears an end. Two of our picks today are rookies, and one is for a former Cy Young candidate still working his way back from a prolonged injury.
Today’s Betting Lines
Here are odds on the top sports betting apps for the games we have a strikeout props pick today. You can also review the lines for Tuesday’s full lineup on our MLB odds page. Also, shop here for the best sports betting promos on the market.
MLB Strikeout Props (8/22/23)
Here are our best MLB strikeout props for Tuesday, Aug. 22.
Grayson Rodriguez Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+124 on FanDuel)
Grayson Rodriguez has faced the Blue Jays twice already this season. Both times he was knocked out in five innings, but he did toss six Ks in each outing. For the last three months of the season, six Ks has been his high mark, so getting Over this total would require one of his better games.
Additionally, the Blue Jays have done well making pitchers work. Only three of Toronto’s 10 batters with more than 10 plate appearances over the last seven days are hitting below .250 in that time span. They have also surrendered six or more strikeouts to only three pitchers in their last 10 games – Aaron Nola, Brandon Williamson, and Justin Steele. Williamson had an above average day against the Blue Jays, and Nola and Steele are among the strikeout leaders in MLB, so replicating their success won’t be an easy task, given how well Toronto is swinging their bats.
We also like Toronto to stop the Orioles’ rookie due to how well the Jays make contact with his pitch selection. Rodriguez uses the four-seamer and changeup at 47% and 22% clips. Only five of the Blue Jays’ 12 batters with 150 or more plate appearances hit the four-seamer below .250, and only four hit the changeup below .250. Daulton Varsho and Cavan Biggio struggle with both, so there aren’t many Toronto hitters who significantly struggle with Rodriguez’s go-to pitches.
Carlos Rodon Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100 on Caesars)
We’re a little surprised to see this line on the market. The Yankees’ season appears to have officially gone up in flames, and Carlos Rodon’s performance in his return from injury has played a part in why. In six starts since July 7, Rodon has only one win and has only tossed six or more Ks once — and that was against the Rockies, fourth-worst in strikeouts in MLB.
Tonight, Rodon takes the mound against the Nationals, who are second-best in strikeouts this season. Additionally, Rodon has struggled in the earned run department as of late. In his last two starts, he allowed four and five runs, and didn’t make it past the fourth inning in either game. Another significant problem the Nationals present is that they have the second-best chase contact percentage in MLB.
As a team, they hit pitches outside of the zone at a 62% clip, second to only the Guardians at 63.4%. That leaves pitchers very few places to put their pitchers and keeps the pressure on them all game. Considering Rodon’s performance this season, especially recently, we don’t like his chances of staying in the game long enough to get Over his posted total.
Bobby Miller Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+120 on FanDuel)
The Dodgers’ Bobby Miller is another rookie having a great start to his pro career for a contending team this season. He is 7-2 and has a 1.17 WHIP. However, the duration of the big-league season looks to be taking its toll on the rookie’s arm. In July, Miller never tossed fewer than five Ks in a game. In August, he hasn’t tossed five Ks in any of his three starts.
Like many young arms in the association, Miller relies on his heater variations for success on the mound. He uses the four-seamer and sinker at 24% clips. His four-seamer averages 99 miles per hour, and his sinker averages about 99 mph as well, and he puts both pitches in the zone three percentage points above league average.
Challenging professional hitters at that clip requires a great deal of endurance, and given it’s his first pro season, the rookie hasn’t quite learned how to pace himself. The Guardians are the best in MLB at avoiding strikeouts, and they hit pitches in the zone above league average. Also, of the nine Cleveland batters with 150 or more plate appearances, only three are hitting fastballs below .250 this season.