We hit on two of our three picks on Tuesday, which were all Under selections. We’re leaning in that direction again today, as two of our three MLB strikeout props picks for Wednesday, August 23 are Under as well.
We did find one even-money line worth considering on an Over for a pitcher on a blazing-hot team.
Although there weren’t many double-digit scoring games last night, there were multiple games with teams scoring six or more runs, signaling pitcher fatigue.
Riding the Under trend seems to be valuable at the moment. Keep reading to see what we found on the market today.
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Today’s Betting Lines
Here are odds from the top sports betting apps on the games for which we have a strikeout props pick on Wednesday. In addition to our props, check out the day’s entire card on our MLB odds page. If you want to get in on the action, shop here for the best sports betting promos on the market.
MLB Strikeout Props (8/23/23)
Here are our best MLB strikeout props for Wednesday, Aug. 23.
Georgie Kirby Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100 on Caesars)
The Mariners’ sophomore pitcher has tossed at least five strikeouts in five of his last six games, including a nine-scoreless inning performance against the Orioles. He is taking the mound against the White Sox tonight looking to help Seattle complete a sweep. Chicago has struggled mightily against the red-hot Mariners, who have won eight in a row. In their current series, the White Sox struck out at least 10 times in both games, including 14 times in the first game.
Except for Luis Castillo, who had a dominating nine-strikeout performance in his start, the Mariners have racked up the strikeouts in this series as a team. Bryan Woo racked up four in his start in only four innings. Kirby has made it at least six innings in every start in August, which should be ample time to get Over his K total.
Kirby has a similar pitching repertoire to Castillo, who provides insight into the White Sox’s struggles at the plate after his outing against them. That advice includes where to place his four-seamer, which, in Kirby’s case, is a pitch of nightmares for struggling hitters. He uses it at a 40% clip, and it draws a chase percentage 16 points above league average and a strike percentage eight points above league average. The sinker is his secondary pitch, and it draws a chase percentage 10 points above league average and a strike percentage six points above league average.
That all bodes extremely well for his odds of covering this bet tonight.
Aaron Civale Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+114 on FanDuel)
In 16 starts this season, Aaron Civale has tossed six or more Ks only three times. Although he is up against the Rockies tonight, who are fourth worst in strikeouts in MLB, topping this number would take one of his better games. The last time he pitched six or more strikeouts was early July, when he was still with the Guardians. Wednesday marks Civale’s third start with the Rays.
His last start was against the San Francisco Giants, who are even worse than the Rockies in the strikeout category. In that matchup, he registered only five strikeouts. Tonight, he has to pitch one more strikeout to cash the Over, and the Rockies are doing well at making contact. In the last seven days, only two of their 10 hitters with at least 10 plate appearances are hitting below .250.
Additionally, Civale has gone less and less into the game as a member of the Rays. In his last three outings, he made it out of the fifth inning only once despite hovering around the same pitch count. That’s a decent indicator that teams are making him work for outs, and that they aren’t coming by way of strikeout.
Charlie Morton Under 5.5 Strikeouts (+100 on Caesars)
The Braves have performed like the best team in baseball from the start of the season to now, and Charlie Morton is a major part of their success. However, his strikeout totals began to wane as the season headed into summer.
In nine starts since July, he has only topped six or more strikeouts three times. He is coming off a 10-strikeout performance against the Yankees and is up tonight against the Mets, who he faced just a couple of weeks ago. He didn’t allow any runs when he was on the mound, but he only pitched four strikeouts.
Morton’s curveball is his primary weapon, and it is as dynamic as it gets. However, the four-seamer is his secondary pitch, and the 39-year-old is struggling to get it by hitters. It draws a strike percentage below league average, and batters have a .310 average against it this season. That isn’t good for his strikeout totals against good teams. He needs his four-seamer to be successful to keep batters off balance. Without it, he has to rely on his curveball a lot more often, which the Mets have seen plenty of times given that this will be the third matchup between the two this year.
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