As October nears, the value of pitching is elevated, especially for those in contention for the MLB Playoffs. With so many division races likely coming down to the wire, we’re primarily leaning on the defense to get it done tonight. Our MLB strikeout props for Monday, Aug. 28 include two Over selections and one Under pick, all of which have plus-money odds.
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Today’s Betting Lines
Here are the odds from the top sports betting apps for the games outlined in our MLB strikeout props for Monday. You can review all of Monday’s baseball contests on our MLB odds page and shop for the best sports betting promos on the market to take advantage of thousands of dollars of promotional offers.
MLB Strikeout Props (8/28/23)
Here are our best MLB props for Monday, Aug. 28.
Cristian Javier Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+128 on FanDuel)
Cristian Javier’s second season as a full-time starter hasn’t been going as well for him of late. In August, he has allowed 21 hits in just four games, which has led to 12 earned runs. He has also tossed only 12 Ks and hasn’t hit the five-K mark in August. Tonight, he is up against the Red Sox, who he started against the last time he took the mound for Houston.
In that matchup, he tossed 105 pitches in five innings and registered only three strikeouts. In the last 30 days, Javier has a 5.33 ERA. Conversely, of Boston’s main batters (those with at least 40 plate appearances in the last 30 days), only four of the 12 are hitting below .250 in that stretch of play. They have combined for 1,000 total plate appearances and have surrendered only 206 strikeouts. That’s a 20.6 strikeout percentage, which is below the league average for starting pitchers.
Javier’s primary pitch is the four-seamer. Boston has 11 players with 150 or more plate appearances this season and only three of them hit the four-seamer at a clip below .250. That’s likely why the Red Sox were able to get seven hits and three runs, while running Javier’s pitch count to 105 in five innings. Considering the numbers and plus-money line, we’re taking Javier to go Under.
Jon Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+111 on Caesars)
Through four games in August, Jon Gray has cut down on his hits and runs allowed and upped his strikeout total as compared to July. Tonight, he faces the Mets, hoping to help turn around the Rangers’ 1-9 record in their last 10 outings as the race for the AL West is now set up to be the best finish in MLB. Monday’s matchup against the Mets couldn’t come at a better time for the Rangers given that New York hasn’t been much better lately either, especially when it comes to Ks.
In their last 10 games, the Mets have allowed double-digit Ks in six of them. Their K totals during that stretch of play are 11, 10, 11, 14, 7, 10, 11, 9, 7, and 4. They have also allowed six different pitchers to hit the six-strikeout mark in that time span. Gray has hit the five-strikeout mark in three of his four games this month and figures to hover around his expected line tonight.
Gray has faced eight of the Mets’ available hitters in 30 at-bats in his career. In those matchups, he tossed nine Ks and allowed only a .167 batting average. Similar averages may be in line for tonight’s contest given Gray’s pitching repertoire. The Mets have eight batters with more than 150 plate appearances, and five of them hit the slider below .220. Gray uses the slider 40% of the time and draws a chase percentage 11 points above league average and is allowing only a .170 batting average with it.
Kenta Maeda Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+115 on Caesars)
The Twins hold a six-game lead over the Guardians, which makes every game in their upcoming series worth a premium. Fortunately for the Twins, they’ll have one of their best pitchers on the mound to start the series. Kenta Maeda has performed quite well by his standards during the last two months. In nine starts in July and August so far, he has tossed at least six strikeouts in all but one game.
That stretch of play includes outings against the Diamondbacks and red-hot Mariners. Tonight, he is up against the Guardians, who are still the best in MLB at avoiding Ks. However, that hasn’t been the case recently. In their last five games, Cleveland’s K totals are 14, 10, 9, 8, and 13. Given how things have gone for Maeda on the mound and the Guardians at the plate, Maeda seems in line to cover this wager.
What makes Maeda so dangerous is his pitch selection. Not many pitchers lead with off-speed and breaking ball pitches, but he does. The slider and splitter are his two primary pitches, and he uses them at 34% and 31% clips. The Guardians have only 10 batters with 150 or more plate appearances – five of them hit the slider below .250, and six of them hit the splitter below .250. That sets up Maeda well to go Over his listed total tonight.
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