Today, we’re taking pitchers to run the board. All of our MLB strikeout props picks for Tuesday, Aug. 29 are pitchers to go Over their listed totals. Two of them are steep totals, but the matchup makes the lines favorable.
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Today’s Betting Lines
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MLB Strikeout Props (8/29/23)
Here are our best MLB strikeout props for Tuesday, Aug. 29.
Pablo Lopez Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+124 FanDuel)
Pablo Lopez is fourth in MLB in strikeouts. He has won five straight starts for the Twins and has been one of the more consistent pitchers in the strikeout category. Lopez has tossed at least six strikeouts in all but five of his 26 starts this season. Tonight, he takes the mound against the Guardians, who have the least number of strikeouts this year.
However, they’ve hit a rough patch, putting up their worst stretch of play in 2023 over their last six outings. Their K totals during that time span are 7, 14, 10, 9, 8, and 13. Additionally, eight of their batters with at least 30 plate appearances over the last 30 days have batting averages well below .250. A seven-strikeout performance is still a high mark against the Guardians, even during as they’re struggling.
If anyone can hit this mark, it’s Lopez. His four-seamer draws a chase percentage eight points above league average and a strike percentage seven points above average, and his slider is limiting batters to a .187 average. The Guardians have 11 batters with more than 150 plate appearances. Five of them hit the slider below .250 and another five hit the four-seamer below .250. That’s the perfect split for Lopez to work his way through the Guardians’ struggling lineup.
The potential payout makes this line worth the risk tonight.
Zach Thompson Over 4.5 Strikeouts
The Cardinals’ sophomore Zack Thompson has racked up starts in August after spending the majority of the season as a relief pitcher. In each of his four starts this month, he has compiled at least five strikeouts, and he hasn’t surrendered more than two runs. The Padres are coming off an electric outing against Thompson’s pitching mate Adam Wainwright, in which they only surrendered one strikeout. However, their K totals in the previous five games were 11, 12, 17, 4, and 12.
Thompson is proving that with more pitches, he is capable of starting-level outings, and the Padres, despite their last game, haven’t been performing well at the plate. Due to Thompson’s pitch selection, they are likely to return to the team they were before last night’s outlier performance. The four-seamer is his primary pitch, but he also has a dynamic curveball and cutter.
His curveball limits batters to a .184 average, and his cutter draws a chase percentage 14 points above average. The Padres have 11 batters with more than 150 plate appearances and seven hit the curveball well below 250 and eight of them significantly struggle with the cutter as well. Given their struggles against two of Thompson’s top weapons, even-money odds on this line may be a steal.
Corbin Burnes Over 6.5 Strikeouts
This is another steep strikeout count that we like for various reasons. One of them is that Corbin Burnes is no stranger to the Cubs. He has faced 12 of the Cubs’ current batters for a total of 98 at-bats. In those matchups, he tossed 34 Ks. That’s nearly a 35% K percentage, which is 13 points above this year’s average strikeout percentage for pitchers.
Another reason is his unique pitching repertoire. He leads with the cutter and uses the curveball and changeup as his backup pitches, three of the more challenging pitches to hit in the sport. His cutter draws a strike percentage three points above league average; his curveball draws a chase percentage above league average and limits hitters to a .100 average; and his changeup draws a chase percentage six points above average, a strike percentage five points above average, and a batting average of .184.
The Cubs do a great job at getting to the cutter as a team, but they struggle with the curveball, which should help keep them off balance enough for Burnes to cover this line. Chicago has 11 batters with more than 150 plate appearances this season, and six of them hit the curveball well below .250.
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