MLB Strikeout Props: Bet the Over on Brandon Williamson & Logan Gilbert

Whether you’re tuning in for competitive baseball or for betting, MLB’s Monday night schedule has you covered. As usual, we put together our best MLB strikeout props for your consideration. Today’s picks include taking the under on the Yankees’ struggling star and two overs against two of the top three strikeout leading lineups in baseball. 

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Today’s Betting Lines

Here are the odds on FanDuel Sportsbook for the games we made strikeout prop selections on. You can view the odds from the other top sports betting apps on our MLB odds page. If any of our strikeout props or the odds for games catch your eye, check out the current bonus offers to get in on the action. 

MLB Strikeout Props (7/17/23)

Here are our top MLB strikeout props for tonight’s contests. 

Brandon Williamson Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+110 on FanDuel)

The Cincinnati Reds have been one of baseball’s biggest surprises this season. They are just two games back from being atop their division and are one of the most exciting teams to watch in MLB. Brandon Williamson has been a quiet part of that success this season. Although he is 1-2 in the win/loss category, the Reds are 7-3 in his starts. 

Williamson has accumulated 38 strikeouts in his 10 starts but has only gone past five innings in one game. On average, he usually goes four innings for the Reds, so he must get his strikeouts quickly to cover this wager. If there is any team he can do it against, it’s the San Francisco Giants. The Giants are third in MLB in strikeouts with 878 on the season. 

In their last two games, the Giants gave up 15 and 12 total strikeouts to an accumulation of pitchers with high ERAs. That doesn’t often happen to a team who is performing well at the plate. Williamson should be able to add to the Giants’ struggles thanks to the variety of pitches he has under his belt. All of his off-speed pitches draw chases at or above league average, which should help him cover this wager before he is relieved. 

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Logan Gilbert Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+115 on BetMGM)

Logan Gilbert has racked up back-to-back wins for the Mariners against the Astros and Giants, in which he threw six and seven strikeouts, respectively, and a shutout against the Giants. He is in a rhythm and up against the perfect lineup to have a high strikeout game in the Twins, who have a collective .128 batting average against Gilbert, and 16 strikeouts in 39 at-bats.

The Twins also lead the league in strikeouts with 949 total – 48 more than the second place Mariners. In their last four games, their strikeout totals have been 9, 10, 14, and 12. Another bonus for Gilbert in this wager is how deep he usually goes into games. He has gone four or less innings in only three of his 18 starts. The longer he is around against the Twins’ struggling lineup, the better his chances.

Luis Severino Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+126 on FanDuel)

To say Luis Severino has been struggling on the mound for the Bronx Bombers would be an understatement. He hasn’t been good by most measurements all season long (7.38 ERA), but he has been exceptionally bad as of late. In his last two starts, Severino allowed 14 earned runs and 19 hits in only 6.2 innings. 

Additionally, he has only thrown five or more strikeouts in a game in two of his seven starts since June. Of the Angels he has faced before, he is surrendering a .333 batting average, .375 on base percentage, .733 slugging percentage, and a 1.108 on-base slugging percentage. The Angels are 11th in MLB in strikeouts, but they have been piling up the runs as of late, which doesn’t bode well for Severino’s chances of staying on the mound very long. 

Last but not least, Severino is primarily a fastball pitcher, and he has had trouble with his location. Considering he puts his fastball in the zone 55% of the time (five percentage points above league average), location is hyper critical for him. Struggling with his placement is primarily the reason for his elevated hard contact percentage and the runs that come along with the contact.

Thanks to Severino’s challenges keeping offenses at bay with or without the strikeout, we don’t like his chances against the Angels, who are coming off back-to-back high scoring nights against the team with the best ERA in baseball.