It’s a new day, which means you get another chance to get in on strikeout wagering action. Every team is taking the field today, so there is no shortage of MLB strikeout props.
Our picks for Tuesday include the Over on three pitchers against some of the best lineups in MLB when it comes to avoiding strikeouts. Keep reading to see why we’re shorting the offenses tonight.
More MLB Betting: Home Run Props for July 18
Today’s Betting Lines
Here are the odds on Caesars sportsbook for the matchups we picked strikeout props for on Tuesday. For odds from other top sports betting apps, check out our MLB odds page. You can also claim one of the current bonus offers on the market to get in on the action below.
MLB Strikeout Props (7/18/23)
Here are our best MLB strikeout prop plays for Tuesday.
Zach Davies Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+100 on Caesars)
Zach Davies missed all but one start in May for the Diamondbacks due to a strained left oblique. He performed well in his first three starts after returning, but he struggled significantly afterward.
However, he is turning things around as of late, tossing six strikeouts in back-to-back games against the Mets and Pirates. The Pirates are middle of the pack in strikeouts for the season, but the Mets are tied for fourth best in the league at avoiding strikeouts with only 737.
The six strikeouts vs. the Mets are a good sign he is figuring out how to get through better lineups. He is up against the Braves tonight, who have arguably the best lineup in baseball. They have only surrendered 756 strikeouts, good for seventh best in the league. Although near the bottom in the category, Atlanta hasn’t been as disciplined as of late.
In back-to-back series, they have surrendered double-digit strikeouts in two of the three games. Their recent struggles have led to an increase in chase percentage and put them over league average, which bodes well for Davies, especially since he is putting each of his three most-used pitches outside of the zone well below league average.
That’s a good combination when it comes to strikeouts, which is why we like Davies on the Over for this one.
Joe Musgrove Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-104 on FanDuel)
Joe Musgrove is 3-1 in his last four starts for the Padres and has thrown at least six strikeouts in each trip to the mound, including an 11-strikeout performance against the Angels. He also hasn’t allowed more than two runs in either contest. He is up against the Blue Jays, who have been just as good at the plate recently. They haven’t allowed a double-digit strikeout outing in over seven games, and they haven’t surrendered more than five strikeouts to a pitcher in that time span.
However, against the seven Blue Jays’ batters he has faced, Musgrove is limiting them to a collective .240 batting average with a strikeout percentage of 30%. In 50 plate appearances against the seven he has faced, he only allowed two home runs, 12 hits, and tossed 15 strikeouts.
Additionally, Musgrove is one of the most balanced pitchers in MLB this year. He has three pitches he utilizes more than 20% of time, each of which draws chase percentages 8-12% above league average. That’s a lot of weapons he has at his disposal to go Over this wager. Six strikeouts seem on par for him given the groove he is in at the moment.
Lucas Giolito Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-102 on FanDuel)
Lucas Giolito has been one of the few bright spots on the White Sox this season. He is 6-5 on the season with a 3.45 ERA, 117 total strikeouts, and a 1.14 WHIP. He hasn’t racked up the strikeouts in his last two games, but he has the Mets batters’ numbers, and as a team, the Mets are struggling in general.
Against the nine Mets he has faced, he has struck them out 20 times in 55 at bats. He has also held them to a collective slash line of .218, .306, .291.
In the Mets last two series, they didn’t get to 30 at-bats in six of the eight games. They are near the bottom of the league in at-bats per game at 33.06. If that level of offensive futility continues, Giolito should be able to go deep into this game.
With a strikeout percentage four points above league average, additional time on the mound will go a long way in helping Giolito cover this wager.
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