MLB Strikeout Props: Wednesday’s Picks Lean Toward Offenses

This week, we’re 2-for-4 with our picks. We came within one strikeout on multiple wagers that could have flipped our record, so we’re confident we’ll turn it around starting today.

Our MLB strikeout props for Wednesday lean toward the offenses with the exception of one young up-and-comer in the league hitting the Over. 

Today’s Betting Lines

Here are the odds on BetMGM for the games we referenced for MLB strikeout props. Check out our MLB odds page for lines from the other top sports betting apps. If you want to get in on the action, claim one of the current bonus offers and get started with your favorite sportsbook. 

MLB Strikeout Props (7/19/23)

Here are our selections for Wednesday’s best MLB strikeout props.

Justin Verlander Under 6.5 Strikeouts (+106 on FanDuel)

Justin Verlander hasn’t tossed seven or more strikeouts in his last seven starts for the Mets. The last time he did was June 2 against the Blue Jays, and it took 117 pitches – a volume he isn’t likely to toss in a game again this year. He is up against a White Sox lineup that is putting the ball in play currently. 

In their last three games, they are averaging 38 at-bats and eight runs a game. Additionally, only four of the White Sox 12 batters with 100 or more plate appearances are hitting the fastball at an average below .250. That doesn’t bode well for Verlander, who utilizes the fastball at a 49% clip, which batters are making hard contact with 41.3% of the time.

Additionally, against the White Sox’ batters he has faced, he is allowing a .252 batting average. That includes a .299 BA for Elvin Andrus, who has 77 at-bats against Verlander and 23 hits. Andrus is one of the White Sox batters who is struggling with the fastball, but that isn’t the case against Verlander. Given the numbers, we don’t think the White Sox will allow Verlander to get the Over on this one. 

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Brandon Bielak Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+100 on BetMGM)

Brandon Bielak has helped the Astros stay afloat amid the vast pitching injuries they’ve endured this season. He has a 3.79 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and has accumulated 46 strikeouts in 11 starts. He tossed at least four strikeouts in his last two starts, one of which was against the Rockies. 

The Rockies are ninth in the league in striking out with 865 on the season. The strikeout totals for their last five games are 11, 15, 9, 10, and 10. Colorado’s 10 batters who have faced Bielak have a collective slash line of .160, .364, and .160. In 25 at-bats, they only have four hits. 

Although they have faced him once, he has a variety of pitches at his disposal, which allows him to challenge struggling lineups. He utilizes the fastball, changeup, and sinker at near equivalent clips, and his changeup and sinker draw chase rates above league average. Considering the Rockies have a 24.5% strikeout percentage and a 31.4% chase percentage (above league average), we like Bielak’s odds of covering this wager. 

Jon Gray Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-105 on BetMGM)

Jon Gray has pitched six or more strikeouts in only one of his last seven starts, and the Rangers have gone 3-4 in that time span. He is up against the Rays, who are struggling to secure wins but aren’t surrendering a ton of strikeouts as of late.

In their last four games, they haven’t surrendered more than four strikeouts to a single pitcher, including just a two-strikeout contest in the game against the Rangers yesterday. 

Gray’s go-to pitch is the four-seamer, which he puts in the zone about 54% of the time (four percentage points above league average). Fastballs in the zone at that clip require ideal placement to avoid mistakes and secure outs.

Gray seems to be struggling with his placement at the moment, which is a good part of why he has surrendered at least three runs in four of his last five games. His ground ball count has risen in that span as well, which, although still an out, also points to more contact being made on his pitches.  

Additionally, only four of the Rays’ 13 players with more than 100 plate appearances are hitting the fastball at clips below .250. Given Gray’s use of the fastball and his location struggles, we’re taking the Under on this one.