Friday’s MLB schedule presents another full slate of games for sports bettors to get in on. If you’re looking for some wagering action, we’ve got you covered. For two of our three MLB strikeout prop picks, we’re taking the offenses to get the better of the pitchers. We do like a familiar name to hit the Over on his strikeout prop. Check below for our picks.
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Today’s Betting Lines
Here are the odds from BetMGM Sportsbook on the games we suggest a strikeout prop pick on Friday. For betting lines from all the best sports betting apps on the evening’s full card, check out our MLB odds page. Also, check out the current bonus offers from top sportsbooks.
MLB Strikeout Props (7/7/23)
Here are our top three MLB strikeout prop bets for Friday’s action.
Aaron Civale Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-106 on FanDuel)
Although Aaron Civale’s season has been plagued by injury, he is still on track for one of his best seasons to date, which has helped the Guardians stay within striking distance in their division. This year, he is posting a 2.96 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 35 strikeout stat line through eight starts. However, he has thrown six or more strikeouts in only two of his eight starts. Additionally, he is in his fifth year in the majors, and he has never posted a 100-strikeout season.
The last stat in the case for Civale not to hit the Over in this one is his 18.4% strikeout percentage, which is two percentage points below the league average. Combine that with his 45.2% ground ball percentage, which is two percentage points above the league average, you quickly realize what type of pitcher he is at the moment. He may go deep Friday night against the Royals, but we expect the bulk of his outs to be ground balls due to above-average cutters, curveballs, and sinkers.
Kansas City is prone to striking out this season, having done so 800 times, good for sixth worst in MLB. However, the Royals’ chase percentage is only slightly over the league average. That means Civale will have to put the ball in play to generate outs against them despite their struggles. He is capable of doing so, but when he does, it’s most often ground ball outs as opposed to strikes.
Charlie Morton Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+105 on BetMGM)
Charlie Morton is one of the Braves’ stars on the mound. He has thrown seven or more strikeouts in seven of his last 11 starts. He has 105 strikeouts this season and a 26.1% strikeout rate, about five percentage points above the league average. His primary pitch is a curveball that is drawing a whopping 38.2% zero swing percentage – 11 percentage points above league average. That alone is enough to consider taking Morton on the Over in this one.
However, there are additional considerations — none bigger than the Tampa Bay Rays’ struggles at the plate. They are in the middle of a five-game losing streak and have given up at least eight strikeouts in their last seven, including five games of double-digit strikeouts in that time span. The Rays are about middle of the pack in the category this season, but their recent stretch moved them in the wrong direction significantly as of late.
With a pitcher like Morton heading to the mound, we don’t like the Rays’ odds of finding their stroke in this one.
Jameson Taillon Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+100 on Caesars)
James Taillon returns to New York to take on the Yankees, his former team, now as a member of the Cubs, and the numbers suggest his homecoming may not go the way he wants it to. So far this year, he hasn’t pitched five strikeout games three times in a row, and he is currently on a two-game streak. Additionally, his primary ball is a four-seamer that underperforms the league average in chase percentage and has a hard contact percentage above league average. His strike percentage is also below the league average.
As for the Yankees, they have struggled to put up runs, but they have still performed well in the strikeout category. That’s except for a dominating 10-strikeout performance from Dean Kremer in their last series against Baltimore. As a team, the Yankees have surrendered only seven strikeouts to Taillon through 48 at-bats, and four of those were by Anthony Rizzo, who faced him 22 times in his career. Given the numbers, we like the Under here, despite the Yankees’ struggles.
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