While Napoli only lost Leg 1 of their Champions League quarterfinal at AC Milan 1-0 last week, the result was much worse than the final score indicated.
In Gaming Today’s breakdown of the Napoli vs. AC Milan odds, props, and prediction, we analyze shorthanded Napoli’s chances of a comeback against their league rival. AC Milan controlled Leg 1, but will they rue their failure to build a bigger lead in a match in which their opponent had a key player sent off in the 74th minute?
Though Napoli did not give up any second-half goals last week, disaster struck when they saw both midfielder Andre-Frank Zambo Anguissa and star center back Kim Min-Jae carded and suspended for Leg 2. Napoli’s top player, Victor Osimhen, is expected to play on Tuesday, but they will have a difficult task erasing the 1-0 deficit without Anguissa or Kim.
Betting Odds for Tuesday’s Napoli vs. AC Milan Match
Here are Napoli vs. AC Milan betting lines available on top sports betting apps.
The prices below apply to Leg 2 on Tuesday. Sportsbooks also offer both teams’ odds to advance to the semifinals.
Napoli are slight underdogs to advance on DraftKings (+110), FanDuel (+110), and BetRivers (+120). Milan are the favorites to go through on DraftKings (-135), FanDuel (-134), and BetRivers (-155).
SOCCER · Tue (4/18) @ 3:00 pm ET
|Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples, IT|
Napoli Roster, Injuries, and Betting News
Entering April, Napoli had been nearly perfect all season long, dominating both the Champions League and Serie A as they prepared for the quarterfinals against AC Milan. But since Osimhen’s groin injury, which has sidelined him for the past month, his team has stumbled, with a record of 1-2-1 in their last four matches. Both those losses, on April 2 in Serie and last week in the Champions League, came against Tuesday’s opponent. Napoli beat AC Milan back in September, but have lost to them twice by a combined score of 5-0 in recent weeks.
While Osimhen is reportedly fit enough to start on Tuesday, it’s unlikely he’ll be at 100%, as he’s played just 18 minutes for his club since its 4-0 win over Torino on March 19. With Osimhen returning from injury and two of Napoli’s best players in Anguissa and Kim unavailable, the Serie A leaders face their toughest test of the season.
The good news is they only have a small deficit to overturn at home in front of a raucous crowd enjoying the team’s best season in more than three decades. Napoli are playing in the Champions League quarterfinals for the first time in history, and they’re well on their way to their first Serie A championship since 1990 (Napoli are -20000 to win Serie A on DraftKings). The chance at a historic trip to the UCL semis should make Stadio Diego Armando Maradona a madhouse on Tuesday night.
It’s worth noting, though, that there has been friction between Napoli and its own ultras in recent weeks. In fact, club President Aurelio De Laurentiis was provided with a security detail to protect him from possible fan attacks, according to the AP.
Osimhen’s fitness is a huge storyline, and the absences of Anguissa and Kim will have a major impact. Napoli are also without forward Giovanni Simeone.
AC Milan Roster, Injuries, and Betting News
Milan have won just one of their last five in Serie A (they’re 1-3-1, with a 4-0 win over Napoli). They’ve been excellent against Napoli, though, which should boost their confidence that they can protect their 1-0 lead from Leg 1. They won last week thanks to a 40th-minute goal by Ismael Bennacer after a tremendous run by Brahim Diaz.
On the season, over 270 minutes (in matches on Sept. 18, April 2, and April 18) against Napoli, Milan have outscored the Serie A leaders 6-2. Milan’s enjoyed a 5.8 to 3.9 advantage in combined xG for those matches, none of which featured Osimhen.
Milan enter Tuesday’s match coming off a 1-1 draw vs. Bologna on Saturday. For that match, Manager Stefano Pioli’s XI did not feature usual starters Olivier Giroud, Rafael Leao, Sandro Tonali, Brahim Diaz, Ismael Bennacer, Theo Hernandez, and Fikayo Tomori.
With so many players resting on Saturday ahead of Tuesday’s match, Milan are as healthy and fresh as a team can hope to be for a crucial Champions League match.
Milan will be at full strength, as first-choice center back Pierre Kalulu played over the weekend after missing Leg 1 due to a calf injury.
Napoli vs. AC Milan Props
Below is a sampling of props for Napoli vs. AC Milan.
Anytime Goalscorer (FanDuel):
- Victor Osimhen: +115
- Khvicha Kvaratskhelia: +140
- Hirving Lozano: +210
- Olivier Giroud: +340
- Ante Rebic: +370
- Rafael Leao: +470
Correct Score (FanDuel):
- Napoli 1-0: +500
- Napoli 2-0: +650
- Napoli 2-1: +700
- AC Milan 1-0: +1200
- AC Milan 2-0: +2300
- AC Milan 2-1: +1500
- 0-0: +1000
- 1-1: +650
Total Goal Props (DraftKings):
- Over 0.5 goals -2500, Under 0.5 goals: +1000
- Over 1.5 goals -330, Under 1.5 goals: +250
- Over 2.5 goals +100, Under 2.5 goals: -120
- Over 3.5 goals +255, Under 3.5 goals: -240
Napoli vs. AC Milan Broadcast Info: Where to Watch
- Date/Time: Tuesday, April 18, 3:00 p.m. ET
- Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.
Watch this match at one of the following:
Napoli vs. AC Milan Prediction: Napoli 2, AC Milan 1
Napoli have a lot working against them, from the 1-0 deficit to the fact they’re without multiple key pieces, even if Osimhen is at his best. Watching AC Milan fail to get a second goal when Napoli were down to 10 men last week, though, felt like something that was going to become a huge deal in Leg 2.
This game might come down to whoever scores first, assuming Napoli can find a goal (they’ve already been shut out by Milan twice this month). If Milan can make it 2-0 on aggregate with a first-half goal, it’s easy to see Napoli’s passionate home crowd working against the hosts.
It seems more likely, though, that Osimhen or Kvaratskhelia equalize the tie with an early goal and Napoli score again to go ahead. At the risk of discounting the deserving winner of these teams’ recent match-ups, I like Napoli to do enough to advance to the semis, where they could face another Serie A opponent (the winner of Napoli-AC Milan is scheduled to play the winner of Benfica-Inter Milan, and Inter won leg 1 2-0).
Here are a few other bets available at DraftKings that are worth checking out:
- Napoli (-135)
- Over 2.5 (+100)
- Napoli to advance (+110)
Also read: Premier League futures | 2026 World Cup odds
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