The Miami Heat stole Game 2 of the 2023 NBA Finals from the Denver Nuggets to even the series at 1-1. With the Finals heading to Miami for Game 3, the Heat can take a 2-1 series lead over the still heavily favored Nuggets, and we are here to break down Nuggets vs. Heat game 3 predictions, odds, and props.
The Heat’s big victory Sunday night earned them more respect from the oddsmakers. However, they are still playing as the underdog in Game 3, and the point spread has grown since opening Denver -1.5 on some odds boards. As of Thursday around noon ET, BetMGM was dealing Nuggets -2.5, while Caesars Sportsbook has moved all the way to -3.5.
The series price, meanwhile, has tightened since the Heat evened things up, with Miami now +225 at DraftKings to win the NBA Finals.
Nuggets vs. Heat Game 3 Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total
For the first time all postseason, Miami lost Game 1 of a series. But they responded with a big victory in Game 2 and seemingly have found an avenue of success against Nikola Jokic. Now that the series is in Miami for the next two, the Heat are in a good spot to do what they’ve done all postseason: win a series no one gave them any chance in.
Before placing your Nuggets vs. Heat Game 3 wagers, check out the odds and lines from the best US sports betting apps. This will ensure you get the best numbers for your NBA Finals bets and open you up to each sportsbook’s bonus offers.
Here are the Nuggets vs. Heat odds for Game 3, including spread, moneyline, and total.
Nuggets vs. Heat Series Price
The Nuggets opened the series as heavy favorites to win the NBA Finals, and the Game 1 victory further lengthened their odds. However, after the Game 2 loss, Denver is as low as -270 at FanDuel and BetMGM to win the Finals and as high as -280 at Caesars Sportsbook.
If you want to bet on the Nuggets’ odds of winning the NBA Finals, we recommend reassessing the odds after Game 3. However, the oddsmakers love the Nuggets, meaning this may be the shortest Denver’s odds get. This is why it is important to check out the odds and lines from each sportsbook, so you can find a number you’re comfortable with.
Here are the updated Nuggets vs. Heat series price odds prior to Game 3.
|Team||DraftKings||FanDuel||BetMGM (Code TODAY)||Caesars Sportsbook (Code TODAYFULL)|
Nuggets vs. Heat Betting Trends & Notes
Despite the loss, the Nuggets have won seven of the last eight games against the Heat. While they are only 4-3 ATS on the road in the postseason, they have covered six of the last seven games played in Miami.
Conversely, the Heat are now 8-4 ATS on the road in the postseason. If the Heat can maintain home-court advantage, like they have all postseason, they are in an excellent spot to be the first eighth seed to win the NBA Finals.
Based on everything we have seen through the playoffs, Denver has not played up to its expectation level in either game so far in the Finals. Even with the Game 1 victory, where they pulled away early, Denver has not shot the ball well, and when everyone around Jokic can’t hit a shot, things can go wrong fast.
In Game 2, Miami did a great job at allowing Jokic to take as many shots as he wants and limit his ability to facilitate the ball. Although Jokic scored 41 points in Game 2, Miami held Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. to a combined 22 shots and only 4-of-14 shooting from deep.
Jokic is an unbelievable talent because he can shoot from anywhere in any situation, but he is at his best when he is at the top of the key, looking to pass and create open shots. The Heat cut that off in Game 2, and as we saw, the Nuggets suddenly have a weakness.
Denver Nuggets Betting Trends
- Denver is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games against Miami
- The total has gone OVER in six of Denver’s last nine road games
- Denver is 7-1 SU in its last eight games
- Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games in Miami
Miami Heat Betting Trends
- Miami is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games
- The total has gone UNDER in five of Miami’s last six games
- The total has gone OVER in six of Miami’s last seven games against Denver
- Miami is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games
Nuggets vs. Heat Game 3 Prop Bets
Jimmy Butler Over 31.5 Points + Assists (-120, DraftKings)
It’s hard to argue that anyone has been more important for Miami than Jimmy Butler. However, his scoring numbers and shooting efficiency have suddenly disappeared over the last five games. He still puts up 20 points per game in that stretch but only shoots 38% from the field.
Luckily, Butler is knocking down 40% of three-point shots, and in the Finals, he has a 43% three-point shooting percentage. Against the Nuggets, Butler put up 13 points on 14 shots in Game 1 and 21 points on 19 shots in Game 2. Those are just not shooting numbers that are going to scare many teams.
Instead of relying on Butler, like Miami had done up until Game 4 against the Celtics, players like Caleb Martin, Max Strus, and Duncan Robinson have been the main scoring threats. This allows Butler to rack up the assists, which he has done in the Finals averaging eight per game.
While his scoring efficiency has been poor, he will still get his shots up, and at home, look for Butler to be more aggressive, which will result in more foul shots. Before the Finals, Butler was averaging 10 free throws per game. You can also expect Miami to keep moving the ball around to open shooters, and with Butler having the highest usage rate on the team, he should be in a good spot to put up a big scoring number and continue dishing the ball to wide-open teammates.
Nuggets vs. Heat Game 3 Predictions
The Miami Heat continue to be a chore to play against, even when they are not on their A-game. In Game 1, Denver practically controlled the entire game, but Miami kept clawing back. The same can be said for Game 2, but this time, the Heat came away with a victory.
As a result, Miami is only a 2.5-point home underdog, but that is a scary number for both sides. While the Heat have been money at home during the postseason, Denver is the better team offensively, and they can match Miami’s intensity on the other end. Because of that, the Nuggets should eventually win the series, but the same could be said for every team Miami has faced besides the Knicks.
With the spread being so close, we are going to take a look at the total. The pace slowed significantly in Game 2, but the total still went over. If Miami takes control of the game early, expect the pace to continue to get slower and slower. This puts Denver at a significant disadvantage, especially since the defensive rating plummets to 116.4 on the road.
However, Denver’s offense has way too many great shooters that can pull them out of any situation, and Jokic will look to get his teammates more involved, which should help the flow of the offense. This should be a tight game, and if Miami’s hot shooting from deep continues, we can expect another high-scoring matchup.
How To Watch Nuggets vs. Heat Game 3
Date: Wednesday, June 7
Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
Location: Kaseya Center – Miami, FL
Where to Watch: ABC