The Denver Nuggets reclaimed homecourt advantage over the Miami Heat and have taken a 2-1 series lead in the 2023 NBA Finals. As Miami looks to avoid a 3-1 series deficit, we will break down the action with a complete Nuggets vs. Heat Game 4 predictions, odds, and props preview.
With a 15-point Game 3 victory, Denver has now won eight games by double-digits in the postseason. However, the oddsmakers expect the Heat to keep Game 4 close, with DraftKings Sportsbook listing Denver as a 3.5-point favorite as of Thursday afternoon.
The series price has swung heavily in favor of the Nuggets, with odds as high as -1000 at FanDuel.
Nuggets vs. Heat Game 4 Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total
For the second time in the Finals, Denver has held Miami to under 100 points. While the Nuggets still did not shoot the ball very well in Game 3, they controlled the entire game and slowly wore the Heat out. Thanks to yet another historic night from Nikola Jokic and a 34-point performance from Jamal Murray, Denver easily took this game and recaptured the momentum in this series.
Before placing your Nuggets vs. Heat bet, check out the odds and lines for Game 4 from the best US sports betting apps. This will ensure you get the best numbers for your wager and allow you to claim any potential sportsbook bonus offers eligible to you.
Here are the Nuggets vs. Heat odds for Game 4, including spread, moneyline, and total.
Nuggets vs. Heat Series Price
Denver opened the NBA Finals as big favorites. After the Game 2 loss, the Nuggets’ odds of winning the NBA Finals dropped to as low as -270.
With Denver taking Game 3 fairly convincingly, oddsmakers have put a lot of faith in the Nuggets to win the Finals. At DraftKings, BetMGM, and Caesars Sportsbook, Denver is -800 to win the NBA Finals, and Miami is getting a +550 price to win the series. If you are looking to place a wager on the Heat’s odds to win the NBA Finals, FanDuel has the best odds of Miami winning the Finals, with a +650 price.
The NBA Finals odds will change drastically no matter who wins Game 4. Before placing your wager on the Nuggets vs. Heat odds for Game 4, make sure you are comfortable with the current numbers.
Here are the updated Nuggets vs. Heat series price odds prior to Game 4.
|Team||DraftKings||FanDuel||BetMGM (Code TODAY)||Caesars Sportsbook (Code TODAYFULL)|
Nuggets vs. Heat Betting Trends & Notes
Game 3 was a deflating loss for a Miami team that stole the momentum of the series with a Game 2 victory. The Heat have proven the doubters wrong all postseason, but they are seemingly running out of gas at the worst possible time.
The Nuggets have not been good in the Finals either, but when you have the best basketball player on the planet and a supporting cast that can hurt you from all three levels of the court, you are in very good shape. It also helps that Miami has shot only 41% from the field and is only attempting 13 free throws per game.
While Miami has been great at home throughout the postseason, they have lost three straight at the Kaseya Center. If the Heat cannot recapture that shooting touch, especially from three, Denver may make short work of the rest of this series.
Denver has also won four-straight road games in the playoffs by an average of 13.2 points per game. Even though they have not been on their A-game, the Nuggets have easily been the better team in the series. In Game 2, Miami shot 48.6% from three and 90% from the free throw line, and still, the Nuggets had a chance to send it to overtime at the buzzer.
Denver Nuggets Betting Trends
- Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last five games
- The total has gone UNDER in six of Denver’s last nine games
- Denver is 8-1 ATS in its last nine games against Miami
- Denver is 5-0 ATS in its last five games in Miami
Miami Heat Betting Trends
- Miami is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 games
- The total has gone UNDER in six of Miami’s last seven games
- The total has gone OVER in six of Miami’s last eight games against Denver
- Miami is 2-5 SU in its last seven games
More Finals action: NBA Finals series price
Nuggets vs. Heat Game 4 Prop Bets
Caleb Martin Over 1.5 Made Threes (+120, DraftKings)
You could argue that Caleb Martin deserved the ECF MVP over Jimmy Butler. While Butler was huge down the stretch in most games, Martin was lights out from deep, shooting 49% from three on 6.4 shots per game.
That success has not translated to the Finals, but he still shoots 44% from deep on three shots per game. In the first two games of the Finals, Martin could only get two shots up per game. In Game 3, Martin took five shots from beyond the arc and hit this number.
At home in the postseason, Martin is shooting 41% from three, and he has cashed this number in six of nine games played in Miami. If the Heat are to get back in this series, they will need to shoot much better from three, starting with Martin.
While guys like Max Strus, Duncan Robinson, and Gabe Vincent have all struggled, Martin has been the guy the Heat have turned to when they need a big shot. Look for Miami to get him more involved in the offense, which should open up more three-point attempts for him.
Nuggets vs. Heat Game 4 Predictions
Miami picked up a big win in Game 2, but it still feels like Denver has dominated every minute of this series. They have completely cut off the Heat’s three-point shooting, which is a big reason they are in this spot, to begin with.
The Heat are winning the turnover battle, giving up the ball only 7.7 times and forcing 13 per game, but they have yet to really cash in on those turnovers. Denver’s offense is so damn efficient that the Heat almost need to be as good as they were all the way up until Game 4 of the ECF to be able to win. That’s what happened in Game 2, and again, they still almost lost.
Denver entered Game 3 as a 2.5-point home favorite, and after a 15-point win, the oddsmakers have them laying only 3.5 points. As someone who has made a small fortune betting on Miami throughout the playoffs, I am very tempted to take the Heat on the spread. The Nuggets vs. Heat odds have favored Denver all series, and Miami has been a covering machine in the postseason.
However, we have seen Miami’s best in this series, and Denver has kind of jogged into a 2-1 lead. Expect the Nuggets to turn up the pressure and head back to Denver for a potential closeout game.
Nuggets vs. Heat Game 4 Prediction: Nuggets -3.5 via DraftKings Sportsbook
How To Watch Nuggets vs. Heat Game 4
Date: Friday, June 9
Tip-off: 8:30 p.m. ET
Location: Kaseya Center – Miami, FL
Where to Watch: ABC