The 2023 NCAA Tournament tips off in earnest on Thursday, with 16 games on the betting card and 16 more on tap for Friday. Gamblers have been wagering into point spreads, totals, and moneylines since matchups were announced on Selection Sunday, and here we look at how the March Madness betting lines have settled during early action.
We haven’t seen a ton of movement since opening lines were posted at the market-making Circa Sports in Las Vegas. Here are teams who have seen point spreads move at least 1 point in their direction since Sunday:
San Diego State -5, opened -4 (vs. College of Charleston)
Illinois +2, opened +3 (vs. Arkansas)
Arizona -15, opened -14 (vs. Princeton)
Northwestern -1.5, opened pick ’em (vs. Boise State)
Drake +2, opened +3 (vs. Miami)
UConn -9.5, opened -8.5 (vs. Iona)
FAU +1.5, opened +2.5 (vs. Memphis)
Xavier -13, opened -11.5 (vs. Kennessaw State)
Kentucky -4.5, opened -3.5 (vs. Providence)
March Madness Opening Betting Lines from Las Vegas
Circa Sports in Las Vegas posted these point spreads and totals for the First Four and First Round:
College Basketball 🏀🏆
Men's Tournament First Four & Round#MarchMadness pic.twitter.com/wmpyJ30qkh
— Circa Sports (@CircaSports) March 13, 2023
2023 March Madness Point Spreads
Here are live First Round point spreads from more top sports betting apps.
NCAA Tournament Game Point Spreads
|Sat (4/1) @ 6:09pm ET||FAU Florida Atlantic||+1.5 -110||+2.0 -110||+1.5 -105||+2.0 -110||+1.5 -108||+1.5 -102||+2.0 -110|
|SDSU San Diego State||-1.5 -110||-2.0 -110||-1.5 -115||-2.0 -110||-1.5 -114||-1.5 -120||-2.0 -110|
|Sat (4/1) @ 8:49pm ET||MIA Miami (FL)||+6.0 -114||+5.5 -110||–||+5.5 -110||+5.5 -108||+5.5 -110||–|
|UCON Connecticut||-6.0 -108||-5.5 -110||–||-5.5 -110||-5.5 -112||-5.5 -110||–|
For totals and moneylines, head to our college basketball odds board here.
Also check: How pro gamblers are moving March Madness lines | How to hedge NCAA Tournament futures bet
Thursday matchups: West Virginia vs. Maryland odds, predictions | Texas A&M vs. Penn State odds, predictions | Oral Roberts vs. Duke odds, props, predictions
NCAA Tournament Betting Trends
Trends are fun to ponder, but bettors should not follow them blindly. Still, with decades of tournament history, some value may be derived from studying certain March Madness situations.
No. 5 vs. No. 12 Matchups and Spreads
Bettors and March Madness bracket pool participants are always on the lookout for upsets – upsets, after all, are a large part of the NCAA Tournament’s charm.
As college hoops observers know, No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchups are ripe for the lower-seed team prevailing, and recent trends support that notion. Over the last 10 NCAA Tourneys, while No. 5 seeds have won 21 of their 40 first-round games, backing the No. 12 in these contests has paid off at the betting window — No. 12s are 25-15-1 ATS over their higher-seeded opponents.
These are this year’s 5-12 matchups, with early lines from DraftKings. The higher seed is favored in each game.
No. 5 San Diego State (-5) vs. No. 11 College of Charleston, South Region, Orlando
No. 5 Miami (-3.5) vs. No. 11 Drake in Midwest Region. Albany, Friday
No. 5 Saint Mary’s (-5.5) vs. No. 11 VCU, West Region, Albany, Friday
No. 5 Duke (-6) vs. No. 12 Oral Roberts, East Region, Orlando, Thursday
How Have Nos 1 and 2 Seeds Performed ATS?
The highest-seeded tournament teams rarely lose in the first round. In fact, Virginia, in 2018, became the first No. 1 seed to lose its opening game, going down to No. 16 University of Maryland, Baltimore County (UMBC), 74–54.
No. 1 seeds fare well from a betting perspective, too, tallying a 59-45 ATS record (56.7%) over the last 27 years.
No. 2 seeds, meanwhile, are more vulnerable, having lost nine games in the first round since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1995, most recently Ohio State to Oral Roberts in 2021, 75-72 in overtime.
Best 2023 NCAA Tournament Teams ATS
Naturally, teams that make the Tournament tend to be profitable bets during the season. Here are the teams with the five best ATS records heading into March Madness this year.
Texas A&M 23-10
Florida Atlantic 21-10
UC-Santa Barbara 20-10-2
Kennesaw State 20-10-1
Which NCAA Tournament Teams Have Performed Poorly ATS?
Here are Nos. 1-4 seeds with losing ATS records this season:
No. 1 Kansas 16-18
No. 1 Purdue 13-18-2
No. 3 Gonzaga 13-18-1
No. 4 Virginia 12-18-2
No. 4 Indiana 15-17-1
Best Over Teams
For totals bettors, these teams have the best Over records among the tournament field:
Grand Canyon 25-8
West Virginia 21-12
Best Under Teams
Here are the Under records of teams that have cashed plenty of Under tickets this season.
Iowa State 21-11
Mississippi State 20-13
Also check: March Madness futures odds | Thursday’s props | March Madness props
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