NCAA’s Alabama-LSU likely to be BCS title game

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Even though we have a bunch of conference championship games this weekend, it’s likely none of the results will matter and we’ll have an Alabama-LSU rematch for the BCS title game.

The one variable that could come into play is if Oklahoma State somehow wows the human vote, which consists of two-thirds of the BCS equation, with a big win against Oklahoma this Saturday. Here’s a look at this week’s big games in college football:

NCAA Football SEC Championship

LSU -13 vs. Georgia: Even if Georgia wins, LSU shouldn’t fall too far just because of what the Tigers have done all season. They have defeated three teams ranked in the top-3, including current No. 2 Alabama at Tuscaloosa. No voter could justify putting any one-loss team above them.

Despite this game being played in Atlanta, Georgia’s backyard, the cushion LSU knows they have should take some of the “win-or-else” pressure off. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a 30-point win.

NCAA Football Big-12

Oklahoma St. -3½ vs. Oklahoma: This is the first year the league doesn’t have an official championship game. This matchup has some of its luster taken away with the Cowboys losing to Iowa State two weeks ago, but still a big game.

Oklahoma State has to hope they win big and voters don’t want to see an all-SEC matchup for the national title. However, the decision won’t be a difficult one to make after the Sooners win outright.

PAC-12 Championship

Oregon -31 vs. UCLA: What kind of title game features two teams where the spread is -30 or higher? UCLA backs into it by default because of how bad Utah and Arizona State were down the stretch and, most notably, because USC in ineligible to represent the South Division.

The bad news for UCLA is that the game is in Eugene and not a neutral site. UCLA’s last three road games have seen them outscored 129-18. Look for the trend to continue here with an embarrassing loss that takes the Bruins to 6-7 on the year.

NCAA Football ACC Championship

Virginia Tech -7 vs. Clemson: This game not only impacts Virginia Tech and Clemson’s chance at getting into a BCS bowl, but Stanford’s as well. Stanford passed the Hokies in the latest BCS poll to move into No. 4 which guarantees a BCS bowl bid. Should Tech win impressively, they could vault past the idle Cardinal and possibly leave them high and dry out of the BCS mix.

As for the game, Virginia Tech gets to avenge its only loss. Clemson won 23-3 at Blacksburg in October, but has dropped 3 of its last 4. The Hokies have turned it up a notch and look like one of the best teams to come out of the ACC in recent years having won seven in a row since that loss. It should be a long night for Clemson.

NCAA Football  Big-10 Championship

Wisconsin -10 vs. Michigan St.: The Badgers get a chance to avenge one of their two last second losses of the season this week at Indianapolis against Michigan State. Both Wisconsin losses came on the road Against the spread, Wisconsin was 0-4 in road games while going 7-0-1 at home.

Michigan State has reeled off four wins in a row and should be able to hang around and maybe pull off the upset. The loser will find themselves out of the BCS Bowl mix. Wolverines have to remain with the BCS top-14 to get the invite.

C-USA Championship

Houston -13½ vs. So. Miss: One of the two undefeated teams in the country hasn’t gotten much press of any kind because we’ve all had it beaten into our heads that small conferences don’t matter because of who they play. Last week Houston pounded Tulsa, 48-16.

Should the Cougars win, they’ll be looking at a bid to the BCS Sugar Bowl against Michigan. Should they beat Michigan and one-loss Alabama beats LSU, they still won’t get any love in the polls.

NCAA Football Heisman Odds

I am surprised we didn’t see any sports books post the Heisman odds due to Nevada Gaming Control Board’s willingness to listen to proposals on voted upon propositions. Gaming requires that the process of how a winner is determined be sent in for approval.

Anyway, here’s a look at the top contenders with odds:

1) Trent Richardson, Alabama -120: I can see the SEC media machine churning, especially after Richardson’s big 203 yard game against Auburn in the Iron Bowl. On the season he’s averaged 6 yards a carry with 20 TD’s. He wouldn’t be my choice to win, but the media backing and support of him can’t be denied in the odds.

2) Andrew Luck, Stanford 3-2: He’s been the favorite all season, but after losing to Oregon the steam on his campaign has run dry. Luck looks like the best player in the country to me, but what do I know. He’s completed 70% of his passes and has tossed 35 TD’s to only 9 interceptions.

3) Case Keenum, Houston 10-1: Just like his team, he’s got the weight of being from a small conference on his shoulders. Since when did playing in the best conference determine who was the best player? When I look at Keenum, I see the best stats. He’s completed 73% of his passes for 43 TD’s and only 3 INT’s. That’s 3 all season while throwing for 4,726 yards! He’s a long shot, but one that a great case could be made.

4) Robert Griffin III, Baylor 15-1: Getting knocked out of the game last week may have hurt his chances of making an appearance at the Downtown Athletic Club in New York, but he has a couple of the most exciting performances under his belt to go along with great stats. Griffin has completed 72% of his passes for 34 TD’s and only 5 interceptions.

5) Matt Barkley, USC 25-1: He shredded UCLA last week with 6 TD passes giving him 39 for the season. Should he stay another year, he’ll be the Heisman favorite next season, but his staying is unlikely. He looks like the better pro prospect than Luck.

 

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