Nevada vs. Arizona State Odds, Trends, Betting Picks: Take This Team To Cover Spread

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The last First Four game of the 2023 NCAA Tournament tips off Wednesday in Dayton, Ohio, as the Nevada Wolf Pack and Arizona State Sun Devils battle for the right to play as the No. 11 seed in the West Region against No. 6 TCU. Here, we break down Nevada vs. Arizona State odds, trends, and betting picks. 

These teams were awarded the final two at-large March Madness bids, and Nevada almost played itself out of the tournament with three-straight losses, including an 81-77 defeat against San Jose State in the MWC Tournament. On the other side, Arizona State made it to the semifinals of the Pac-12 Tournament, but Arizona got revenge after a full-court prayer gave the Sun Devils a huge Quad 1 victory.

The First Four is always full of action, and if you are struggling to find a Nevada vs. Arizona State bet, we have got you covered as we break down the teams and trends, and give our best bet of the night. March Madness is here, meaning it is time for bettors to get to work.

Nevada vs. Arizona State Betting Odds: Spread, Moneyline, Total

When you go to make your Nevada vs. Arizona State picks, we advise you to check out several of the country’s top sportsbooks to ensure you are getting the best odds and lines for each matchup. Doing this also allows you to claim multiple sportsbook welcome bonuses, giving you a nice bankroll for March Madness.

Here, we have included the odds and lines from some of our favorite mobile sportsbooks to give you a good idea of how the oddsmakers feel about Nevada vs. Arizona State.

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How Nevada & Arizona State Got to the Big Dance

The Sun Devils enjoyed their first winning season since 2019-20, when the NCAA Tournament was canceled due to COVID-19. Head coach Bobby Hurley took advantage of the transfer portal over the last few seasons and has this team in a good spot, as they finished the season with a 22-12 record. Although they only mustered an 11-9 conference record, they made it to the semifinals of the Pac-12 Tournament.

Arizona State coach Bobby Hurley
Coach Bobby Hurley and Arizona State are short favorites over Nevada in NCAA Tournament First Four action (AP Photo/David Becker)

The Wolf Pack also had a winning season ruined by COVID-19 and is making their first tournament appearance since 2018-19 when the 29-5 Nevada Wolfpack fell in the First Round of the Tournament. This season, Nevada finished with a 22-10 regular season record and a 12-6 conference record.

The future is bright for both teams, which should make for an exciting matchup.

Read More: March Madness odds

Nevada vs. Arizona State Betting Trends

Nevada

  • Nevada is 2-4 ATS in its last six games
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of Nevada’s last six games
  • Nevada is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games against the Pac-12
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of Nevada’s last nine games when playing as the underdog

Arizona State

  • Arizona State is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games
  • Arizona State is 8-1-1 ATS in its last 10 games against the MWC
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of Arizona State’s last six when playing as the favorite
  • Arizona State is 5-1 SU at neutral site matchups this season

Nevada Wolf Pack (22-10, 19-11-1 ATS)

The Wolf Pack are lucky to be in this spot after losing their final three games of the season, all of which were against non-tournament teams. This is especially troubling since they have one of the biggest teams in the nation, and they like to bully teams down low.

If Nevada was not able to do what it wanted inside against Wyoming, UNLV, and San Jose St, then I cannot imagine that they will make it very far this March. They also have athletic guard play on offense, which allows the big men to kick it out and dominate the pick-n-roll. While Arizona State’s athleticism will be tough to match, Nevada certainly has a size advantage, which is all you need for a one-game elimination tournament.

Nevada does not shoot the ball very effectively, as they rank 315th in ShotQuality‘s Rim & 3 Rate, which measures the percentage of possessions that end in a three-pointer or a shot at the rim. The Wolf Pack also rank 61st in KenPom‘s Adjusted Offensive Efficiency Rating. They are sixth in free throw percentage, which may be why Nevada finds a way to win, as Arizona State plays aggressively on both sides of the ball.

Defensively, Nevada is shockingly not as good a rebounding team as one would expect with a starting lineup that has an average height of 6-foot-6, but they rank 43rd in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Rating, and they only allow teams to shoot 32.5% from deep.

Arizona State Sun Devils (22-12, 15-19 ATS)

Arizona State has two impressive wins for a team that has to make a do-or-die trip to Dayton. They beat Creighton earlier in the season and then took down Arizona on a full-court buzzer-beater. At the same time, they have some bad losses to Texas Southern and San Francisco, but as a whole, the Sun Devils have proven that they can be a team that goes on a run this March.

This team likes to rely on its athleticism and open-court offense to beat teams, and that is a perfect style when going up against a slow-paced bump-and-grind team like Nevada. Their athleticism on the perimeter will give them a step up if they can dictate the game’s tempo and force a slow-moving team to pick up the pace.

Although Arizona State does not play at a fast tempo, ranking 130th in KenPom’s Adjusted Tempo, they are taking 60.5 shots per night, with 23.9 coming from behind the arc.

On defense, Arizona State can suck the life out of this team as they rank sixth in opponents’ two-point shooting percentage (43.8%), 11th in opponents’ shooting percentage (39.8%), 19th in effective field goal percentage (46.4%), and they are 29th in KenPom’s Adjusted Defensive Efficiency Rating.

Nevada already doesn’t take quality shots, and now they have to go up against a team that is good at defending the perimeter and causing havoc on that end of the court. With how stagnant Nevada’s offense can be, Arizona State can put this team away early.

Nevada vs. Arizona State Betting Pick

Nevada has not only limped into the First Four, but they had a pretty brutal stretch to end the season, losing three-straight, and their defense, which has been a strength all season for this team, has collapsed, allowing two 80-point performances in their final three to two teams that are not great on offense. Still, this team has been a covering machine, and Arizona State has only covered the spread five times in its last 17 games.

With two solid defenses, this game screams going under, especially if Nevada can turn this into a half-court contest, in which case, they will have the upper hand. However, Arizona State is the more talented roster, and Nevada has not seen this type of athletism in a team from the MWC. If Nevada cannot slow this team down, and force them to play half-court offense, this game might get ugly. 

We will take Arizona State to cover.

Pick: Arizona State -2 via BetRivers

How to Watch Nevada vs. Arizona State

Date: Wednesday, March 15, 2023

Tipoff: 6:40 p.m. ET (after Fair Dickinson vs. Texas Southern)

Location: UD Arena— Dayton, OH

Where to Watch: truTV

About the Author
DJ Corrigan

DJ Corrigan

Writer
DJ Corrigan is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today and has been covering the world of wagering since his days at Ohio State University. Corrigan's love of betting the Over and chasing the hungry dogs has led him to a career crunching numbers with an emphasis on NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, and MLB betting.

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