New Mexico State vs Liberty Prediction, Odds, Best Bets: 2023 CUSA Football Championship

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Eight conference championships will be decided across college football, kicking off with the 2024 Conference USA Championship between New Mexico State and Liberty at Williams Stadium in Lynchburg, Virginia.

 

The No. 20 Liberty Flames (12-0) put their undefeated record on the line against the visiting New Mexico State Aggies (10-1) in the 19th annual football championship game for Conference USA. Both teams will be making their first appearance in the CUSA title game and only one will walk away with the trophy.

Check out our New Mexico State vs Liberty prediction, odds, and best bets.

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New Mexico State vs Liberty State Spread, Moneyline, Total

Here are the best available odds for moneyline, spread, and total across top sports betting apps. Click on the odds you like to place a bet. Learn more about sports betting promos when signing up to receive bonus bets.

Spread: New Mexico State , Liberty
Moneyline: New Mexico State , Liberty
Over/Under:

New Mexico State vs Liberty Betting Trends

  • ATS Records: New Mexico State 10-2-1, Liberty 8-4-0
  • ATS Away vs. Home: New Mexico State away 5-1-1, Liberty home 4-3-0
  • Over/Under Records: New Mexico State Over 4-9-0, Liberty 7-5-0
  • Over/Under Away vs. ome: New Mexico State away 3-2-0, Liberty home 4-3-0
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New Mexico State vs Liberty Props

Some of the player props available for the top stars in this matchup — from New Mexico State passing and rushing leader Diego Pavia to Liberty’s QB Kaidon Salter and WR CJ Daniels — are listed below:

 

Diego Pavia has taken a leap in his second year as New Mexico State’s quarterback and is a key piece of the offense. If he has a good game, he should hit the over on passing yards and rushing yards for the Aggies, and provides the best value on delivering a rushing touchdown .

Other names to shop for NMSU are RB Star Thomas and WR Jonathan Brady. Trent Hudson leads the team in receiving touchdowns and second in receiving yards as well.

Kaidon Salter has similar numbers to Paiva, but it’s tougher to find value in the O/U and passing touchdowns. There is a good price on the Liberty QB to throw an interception , and considering this is a championship game, that may be the best buy on him. Don’t sleep on Salter taking one in himself, as he ranks second in rushing TDs, but the plus money there is on him scoring multiple (which he has done on five occasions this season).

Salter does have a lot more help in the running game with Quinton Cooley leading in yards and TDs. Cooley is coming off a three-TD game but has only had four multiple touchdown games this season, something he’ll have to do to pay well . CJ Daniels, Bentley Hanshaw, and Treon Sibley are the receivers to shop to score but don’t expect much of a return unless you’re going with Daniels, which will be the popular choice.

New Mexico State vs Liberty Analysis and Prediction

Due to the single-division format of Conference USA, these teams faced off in the regular season. Liberty won 33-17 at home in a game where the defense held New Mexico State to zero points in the second half. Of course, that game was back on Sept. 9 and both teams have one combined loss since.

The two quarterbacks will be important in this one but New Mexico depends a bit more on Pavia than Liberty on Salter. Liberty is also at home but that could also add pressure for a team with so much riding on the line. Double digits are a big spread to cover in a championship game, though that seems to be the sweet spot in CUSA where recent title games have ranged from an eight-point difference to a 40+ point gap.

Going with prop bets may be the wiser play here. If you like New Mexico to cover, this one may be one to go all in on the moneyline.

Pick: New Mexico (+11.5 at time of publishing), Over (56 at time of publishing)

How to Watch New Mexico State vs Liberty

  • Date: Friday, Dec. 1, 2023
  • Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
  • Location:  Williams Stadium (Lynchburg, Virginia)
  • Network: CBS Sports Network

Read more: NCAAF Conference Championship odds | College Football Championship odds | Best college football betting apps

About the Author
Victor Araiza

Victor Araiza

Writer
Victor Araiza is a sports betting writer for Gaming Today who joined the team in 2022. Araiza has over a decade of experience covering major sports in the United States with a specialty in soccer.

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