The NFL offseason is in full swing and that means that odds change at the drop of a hat. The second that ESPN’s Adam Schefter tweets the words “breaking news,” be prepared for sportsbooks to temporarily stop accepting bets and account for changes. Thus, Super Bowl odds movement can happen at any time.
So far, there has been little movement in the market since Tom Brady won his seventh Super Bowl. Some smaller moves have caused some movement. For instance, JJ Watt was released by the Houston Texans. Watt decided to sign with the Arizona Cardinals which slightly influenced their odds to win the Super Bowl. The Cardinals’ odds dropped from +5000 to +3300 with one signature on a contract.
Moreover, this is hardly the biggest news that will drop in the coming days. According to reports, Deshaun Watson, also a member of the Texans, has requested a trade. One of the best quarterbacks in football could be on the move. Surely, any team could use a top 10 quarterback that is a dynamic playmaker like Watson.
Below are the movers and shakers to this point, and there could be plenty more to come with Deshaun Watson’s refusal to play in Houston.
NFL Super Bowl Odds Movement
Super Bowl “Movers”
Movers show teams that are trending up with their ability to make moves and improve their rosters.
Los Angeles Rams +1300
The Rams are always looking to make moves and improve their roster. The biggest move this offseason has seen the Rams trade two first-round picks and Jared Goff to the Lions for Matthew Stafford. Stafford’s talents have been wasted on a horrific Lions roster for years. He was the top overall pick and is as talented as anyone.
The Rams do not have a first-round pick in the draft this year – expect the team to be extremely active in trades and free agency. Prior to the Stafford trade, the Rams could be found above +2000 (4.76% implied). After the trade, they moved to +1300 (7.14% implied) on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Baltimore Ravens +1400
The Baltimore Ravens seem to be the victim of negative recency bias. Lamar Jackson has struggled badly in the playoffs and that is what people remember. The Ravens were +1600 on DraftKings Sportsbook on February 19th. DraftKings has since corrected this and moved it down to +1200.
The Ravens will absolutely need to land a playmaker or two on offense. Mark Andrews had a down year, Hollywood Brown is inconsistent, and Jackson struggles to get the ball downfield. He needs help on offense and the Ravens will be extremely aggressive. If you believe in Lamar Jackson, PointsBet Sportsbook is offering the Ravens at +1400 which is the best on market.
Indianapolis Colts +2200
Another team making a move for a quarterback. Carson Wentz is now with the Colts after a trade from the Eagles. Colts coach Frank Reich used to be the offensive coordinator in Philadelphia so there is a lot of familiarity there. The Colts hovered around +2600 (3.70% implied) prior to this trade.
This is a major win-now team. Their defense is vastly underrated, the offensive line is near the top in football, and they have a new quarterback. They are one playmaker at receiver away from being a major competitor in their division and playoffs. It will come down to Wentz’s ability to rebound. William Hill Sportsbook is offering the Colts at +2200. Be aware that many others are closer to +2000 so this price might not last.
Super Bowl Odds “Shakers”
Who is trending down and why?
Houston Texans +15000
Deshaun Watson wants out. He has told people close to him that he will never wear a Texans uniform again. Houston has said they will not even take calls on him but eventually, they will need to make a move. Watson is livid with their front office and their roster is a dumpster fire; sapped of all talent.
The Texans have the worst odds in the NFL despite having Watson on their roster. These odds reflect Watson having already been traded. If you believe that Watson will not be traded and change his mind, you will not get better odds than this. This is a prop you would hope to sell or hedge; because the Texans are not winning the Super Bowl with this roster. The Texans are +15000 on BetRivers Sportsbook.
Seattle Seahawks +2500
From one star quarterback that wants out to another. Russell Wilson has not explicitly said he wants out, but sources close to Wilson say he’s thinking about it. Wilson has been hit more times than any quarterback in the last few years. His offensive line has been bad and his relationship with Pete Carroll seems to be on thin ice.
The Seahawks are not expected to trade him but they will take calls. He will get a huge return back in a trade so expect Seattle to play this very coy. Getting a top 5 quarterback at 25:1 odds is phenomenal if he actually stays in Seattle. Be sure to keep an eye on this one.
Pittsburgh Steelers +3000
Ben Roethlisberger is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in football at this point. They have phenomenal wide receiver talent and their defense is top tier. Roethlisberger is really setting their roster back and they have committed to him past this season.
The Steelers are +3000 everywhere and frankly, I wouldn’t even tough that. On February 19th, the Steelers were around +2600 and have dropped to +3000. The news of Roethlisberger returning is seemingly the reason for this. The roster is not bad but Roethlisberger is a major issue. You can pick your sportsbook on where to bet the Steelers but FanDuel Sportsbook has it at +3000. However, I would never bet the Steelers while Big Ben is behind center.