As the old saying goes “Good teams win, but great teams cover.” A bad team can lose a game outright, cover the spread, and still be a darling to sports bettors everywhere!
Through 12 weeks of NFL action, a few betting trends have emerged. It’s been the year of the Underdog, as teams getting points have cashed at an impressive 97-76-5 (56%) clip against the spread heading into Week 13. A $100 bettor would be up $1,340 by betting underdogs across the board at the standard -110 juice.
Not impressive enough? How about, then, the rate at which Unders are hitting? Through 12 weeks, the Under has hit 101-76-2 (56%) for the season. That same $100 bettor would be up $1,740 so far this season by betting Unders in every game.
Not! Too! Shabby!
Unfortunately for most public bettors, they tend to bet favorites and Overs.
Let’s take a look at some more NFL Betting Trends, and see which team has been performing the best (or worst) ATS and with Over/Under totals.
NFL Trends: Best Teams Against the Spread
The Philadelphia Eagles remain the NFL’s best team through Week 12, with only one loss to the Commanders this season. They’re the current No. 1 seed in the NFC, but would it surprise you to learn they’ve been fairly average against the spread? While the Eagles are a sparkling 10-1 on the season, the Eagles are only 6-5 ATS this season.
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Then there’s the Minnesota Vikings, off to a fantastic 9-2 start. The Vikings are just one game behind the Eagles in the NFC, but also sport a fairly mediocre record against the spread. The Vikings are just 5-5-1 ATS through 12 weeks.
How about the miserable Detroit Lions? With one of the league’s worst records at 4-7, the Lions’ playoff hopes are all but dashed heading into December. But for sports bettors? The Lions have been a covering machine, with a stellar 7-4 record against the spread.
As for this year’s best team against the spread? It’s a tie! Each of the Bengals, Giants, and Titans own impressive 8-3 records ATS this NFL season.
As for the worst of the worst, the defending Super Bowl Champions Los Angeles Rams continue to underperform expectations. The Rams are dead last in the NFL against the spread. After their loss to the Chiefs, the Rams dropped to 2-7-2 against the spread this season.
NFL Trends: Best Over/Under Teams
Betting the Under across the board would have earned you a nice return through 12 weeks. However, there are a few teams that are absolutely crushing these low totals.
The Denver Broncos are the biggest beneficiaries of this Under trend. The $250 Million Dollar Russel Wilson Experiment has been a disaster in the Mile High City. The total has gone Under in ten of eleven games for the Broncos, who have scored more than 20 points only twice this season.
As for Over bettors, you’d be surprised to learn the Chicago Bears have the best Over record against the spread this season. While the Bears have a 3-9 regular season record, they own a league-leading 8-3-1 record towards the Over this season.
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NFL Trends: ATS and Over/Under Records
Here’s the complete list of NFL teams with their respective records across the various betting markets.
|Team||NFL Record||ATS Record||Over/Under Record|
|Green Bay Packers||4-8||4-8||6-6|
|Kansas City Chiefs||9-2||4-6-1||5-6|
|Las Vegas Raiders||4-7||5-6||6-4-1|
|New England Patriots||6-5||6-4-1||5-6|
|New Orleans Saints||4-8||4-8||6-6|
|San Francisco 49ers||7-4||6-5||4-7|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||5-6||3-7-1||2-9|