Seven games can be found on the NFL Week 13 early slate with all contests kicking off Sunday at 1:00 p.m. EST. The marquee matchup comes in Cincinnati as the Bengals host the Chargers in a pivotal AFC matchup.
Here are the odds and betting analysis for all Week 13 games:
NFL · Sun (12/5) @ 1:00pm ET
|Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio|
The line has barely moved after opening at Cincinnati -2.5.
LA Chargers (6-5, 5-6 ATS) at Cincinnati Bengals (7-4, 6-5 ATS)
BetMGM Line: Bengals -3 (50.5)
The skinny: Both teams currently occupy wild-card playoff slots, but the Chargers have less wiggle room and will be more desperate to win here.
Facts: The Chargers won at Cincinnati in last season’s opener 16-13, which was Joe Burrow’s first career start. The next week current L.A. starter Justin Herbert made his debut.
L.A. bungled a chance last week to take over first in the AFC West (via tiebreaker) when it lost as a 2.5-point favorite in Denver, 28-13. Herbert tossed a pick-six that went through the hands of RB Austin Ekeler.
Cincinnati, which has flourished through the air this season behind Burrow and first-round pick Ja’Marr Chase (50 catches, eight TDs), has recently surged behind a running game fueled by RB Joe Mixon, who had 165 yards last week in the 41-10 win over Pittsburgh.
Analysis: Although the Chargers’ rush defense has shown improvement in recent weeks, including holding Pittsburgh to 55 yards on 18 carries two weeks ago, L.A. is still giving up the most ground yards per game in the league.
Considering Cincinnati had its most productive ground games the past two weeks, it’s bad timing for the Chargers to be making their fourth trip across three time zones and third appearance in the early “jet lag” Sunday time slot.
Chargers at Bengals Pick
Bengals 28, Chargers 21
The Bucs opened as 10-point choices earlier in the week before the number moved up a notch.
Tampa Bay Bucs (8-3, 5-6 ATS) at Atlanta Falcons (5-6, 5-6 ATS)
Caesars Line: Bucs -10 (50.5)
The skinny: Tampa Bay will be looking to take a stranglehold of the NFC South with a victory over second-place Atlanta and stay on the heels of Arizona for the conference’s top seed.
Facts: Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU/ATS as a double-digit favorite this year, but in the only such game that was on the road the Bucs lost 29-19 loss in Washington two weeks ago as a 10-point choice. Leaguewide, double-digit road favorites are 2-3 straight-up, 1-4 ATS this season.
In their Week 2 meeting in Tampa, a 48-25 Bucs victory as a 13-point pick, TB broke open a tight game with a pair of pick-sixes by Mike Edwards less than four minutes apart in the final eight minutes.
Bucs QB Tom Brady had five TD throws and no INTs in that rout, and counting last year, has 11 scoring throws and one interception in three victories over the Falcons.
Analysis: Since fleet Falcons WR Calvin Ridley opted out for a mental health break five games ago, the offense has largely shut down. QB Matt Ryan has thrown for 200 yards once in that spell and top draft choice Kyle Pitts, a combo TE/WR, has totaled 14 catches for 190 yards after having 16 receptions for 282 yards in the two games before Ridley opted out.
Although Atlanta RB/WR Cordarrelle Patterson has continued to flourish, running for a career-best 108 rushing yards on 16 carries last week in a 21-14 win at Jacksonville, he can’t do it all.
And certainly, the Falcons’ defense has had no answer for Brady the past two seasons. Since Atlanta is 0-4 SU/ATS as a host this season, home cookin’ shouldn’t be a factor.
Bucs at Falcons Pick
Bucs 38, Falcons 14
The Cardinals were 7-point picks when the line opened and have largely stayed that way, with some sites at 7.5. Cold, wet weather is in the forecast.
Arizona Cardinals (9-2, 8-3 ATS) at Chicago Bears (4-7, 4-7 ATS)
Line: Cardinals -7 (43.5)
The skinny: After last week’s bye, the Cardinals are expecting back QB Kyler Murray and standout WR DeAndre Hopkins after they missed three games.
Facts: Arizona went 2-1 in the absence of their two offensive stars, with backup QB Colt McCoy throwing for 328 yards in a 23-13 win in Seattle two weeks ago.
In Chicago, rookie QB Justin Fields continued to be slowed by his cracked ribs in midweek drills. That means another start for veteran Andy Dalton, who guided the Bears to a 16-14 Turkey Day (no pun intended) victory in Detroit on an 18-play drive to a field goal as time expired.
2006 flashback: The 5-0 Bears traveled to Arizona for a MNF game against the Cardinals and fell behind 20-0 before rallying for a 24-23 win thanks to two late fumble returns for TDs and a punt return score. “The Bears are who we thought they were!” Arizona coach Denny Green famously ranted while pounding the podium before being whisked from view by team officials.
Analysis: Yet again, Murray, the league’s top-rated passer, is “hopeful” to return from his ankle sprain. Ditto for WR DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring). This time both probably could make it.
As of early Friday morning, though, the weather forecast is for less than a 20% chance of rain at kickoff but increasing to almost 70% by game’s end, with wind chill in the high 20s early on before getting toastier.
Because of the neutralizing effect of the weather, and in case the Cardinals want to be extra cautious and hold out their playmakers again, the Bears and the points look nice under Dalton’s veteran leadership
Cardinals at Bears Pick
Cardinals 19, Bears 17
The spread was at 7 to open and has reached 7.5 in many spots
Minnesota Vikings (5-6, 6-5 ATS) at Detroit Lions (0-10-1, 7-4 ATS)
Line: Vikings -7 (47)
The skinny: Both teams could be without their top running back when these NFC North rivals meet.
Facts: Detroit’s D’Andre Swift was coming off 130- and 136-yard rushing games before injuring a shoulder against the Bears on Thanksgiving. Minnesota’s Dalvin Cook, who missed the teams’ Week 5 meeting in Minnesota with an ankle injury, also has a shoulder injury. He had a 206-yard game against the Lions last season.
In that previous meeting this year, a 19-17 Vikings victory on a last-second 54-yard FG, backup RB Alexander Mattison rushed for 113 yards.
Although the Lions’ NFC North title hopes were extinguished last week, computer programming know-it-alls say Detroit can still somehow pull off a wild-card berth. But the Lions will need a lot of help.
Analysis: The Lions, who have the league’s fifth-best ATS record, would have a fighting chance if Swift would be full-go against a Vikings team that’s had its defensive shortcomings this season, The Vikings are short-handed up front defensively and twice in November losses allowed more than 200 rushing yards, including 208 last week in a 34-26 loss to the 49ers in San Francisco.
The Lions already had serious issues in the passing game with a lack of quality receivers, so Swift’s absence would be brutal.
Vikings at Lions Pick
Vikings 27, Lions 10
The line opened at 7.5 and then took a leap in Indy’s direction.
Indianapolis Colts (6-6, 7-5 ATS) at Houston Texans (2-9, 5-6 ATS)
PointsBet Line: Colts -9 (45)
The skinny: Indianapolis goes for the season sweep against the AFC South cellar-dwelling Texans.
Facts: Indy defeated visiting Houston 31-3 in Week 6 as an 11.5-point choice. Back then the Texans were going with rookie backup QB Davis Mills. Tyrod Taylor regained his starting role in Week 9 after recovering from a hamstring injury.
The Colts lead the league with a plus-12 turnover differential yet were at minus-4 in their 38-31 home loss to Tampa Bay last week, squandering a 10-point, third-quarter lead in the process.
Houston’s preparation for this game was interrupted Wednesday when practice and all in-person activities were canceled on the advice of the Colts’ medical team because some players were’t feeling well. Things were back to normal Thursday.
Analysis: The Texans had to be sick after blowing a 14-3 home lead to the bottom-feeding Jets last week.
Not only does Houston have the worst rushing norm per game (78.3) and per carry (3.2), but on defense they’re second worst in yards per game. In last week’s loss, they gave up 157 yards to a team that was without its leading rusher. Now Houston gets to go against the league’s leading rusher, Jonathan Taylor.
Colts at Texans Pick
Colts 35, Texans 20
The line has more than doubled at many sites from Miami -2.5 to as much as -6 with word of the Giants’ injury situation at QB.
NY Giants (4-7, 6-5 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (5-7, 6-5-1 ATS)
Line: Dolphins -6 (40.5)
The skinny: The resurgent Dolphins put their four-game winning streak on the line against the Giants, who will be without QB Daniel Jones.
Facts: Jones, who suffered a neck injury at some point in the Giants’ 13-7 win against Philadelphia on Sunday, was ruled out Friday. Mike Glennon, who’s got a 6-21 record according to Profootballreference.com, started five games for Jacksonville last year and lost them all.
While Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has been getting pats on the back during the team’s streak (4-0 ATS, too), the defense has stepped up in a big way. During their early-season seven-game losing streak, Miami gave up 30.1 points a game. In their win streak, that number is 11.5, including a 22-10 win over AFC front-running Baltimore.
Analysis: The Giants’ defense looked pretty good last week in intercepting Jalen Hurts three times and punching out a key fumble in the closing minutes on Boston Scott in an upset of Philadelphia.
But the offense was stagnant under new play-caller Freddie Kitchens. And now he’ll be working with Glennon for the first time.
Regardless, another low-scoring game seems in the offing.
Giants at Dolphins Pick
Dophins 17, Giants 16
Philly opened as a 7-point choice, but 6.5 is available in some spots.
Philadelphia Eagles (5-7, 6-6 ATS) at NY Jets (3-8, 3-8 ATS)
FanDuel Line: Eagles -7 (45)
The skinny: The Eagles look to improve their record to 12-0 against the Jets dating to 1973.
Facts: New York, which hasn’t been a favorite in a game since 2019, was a 1.5-point pick in this game in the preseason. The Eagles, meanwhile, haven’t been this big a choice since going off as a 10-point pick against Dallas at midseason last year in the one-and-done start for Cowboys QB Ben DiNucci. Philly won, 23-9.
The Eagles have rushed for 200-plus yards in four of their past five games, including their 13-7 loss at NYG last week that was doomed by four turnovers.
The Jets are coming off their comeback 21-14 win at Houston in rookie QB Zach Wilson’s return from a knee injury.
Analysis: Wilson is healthy these days, but what about Eagles QB Jalen Hurts, who has been hobbling around with an ankle injury this week but is listed as probable. But since he’s the team’s leading rusher, probable isn’t good enough here.
And an under-the-radar concern for Philly is the status of center Jason Kelce, who missed past of last week’s game (questionable, knee) vs. NYG. In his brief absence, his replacement had two crucial holding penalties.
Jets RB Tevin Coleman provides just enough offense on the ground to team with the pass-catch combo of Wilson and WR Elijah Moore to make it close.
Eagles at Jets pick
Eagles 21, Jets 19
Last week: 8-7 ATS, 8-7 SU
Season total: 86-91-3 (.486) ATS; 108-71-1 (.603) SU
Also read: NFL Week 13 Late Slate