Will the trend be your friend or is it time for the streak to end?
Gamblers have tantalizing choices on the spread and total areas for Super Bowl 58 between the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers on Feb. 11.
Here’s a deeper look at those two considerations regarding NFL betting trends for Super Bowl 58.
Super Bowl Spreads
Underdogs have been on a 12-4 against-the-spread (ATS) tear over the past 16 years. However, do gamblers want that big a sample or would they prefer to examine this as a 2020 rematch between many of the same key personnel? The Chiefs rallied from the way back to top the Niners, 31-20, and cover -1.5.
The Chiefs are playing in their fourth Super Bowl in the last six years. They covered against the Niners as a small chalk in 2020, got blown out 31-9 by the Tampa Bay Bucs as a field-goal favorite in 2021, and nipped the Philadelphia Eagles 38-35 last year at +2.
Here, they are at +1.5 or +2 (Best Live Odds: ) against the Niners.
Why are dogs covering so much in recent years? Parity. There has been little to separate the teams that worked their way to the big game and the outcomes are turned by a definitive play.
The Over/Under presents an interesting decision, too. The Over finally broke a four-year losing streak, when the Chiefs and Eagles soared past 50.5. But the same Chiefs team and a strong Niners offense have a lower total this year, 46.5 (Best Live Odds: ), and it went down early this week.
What caused that? Patrick Mahomes was content to be a smart game manager last week and the Chiefs nipped the Baltimore Ravens, 17-10, without scoring any second-half points. Kansas City has been a low-scoring second-half team all season, as it has relied on a stout defense and made few mistakes.
Intangibles Impact Performance
Here are some emerging trends bettors will weigh into the equation.
Travis Kelce has been a man possessed and has three touchdowns in the last two playoff games. Miffed over dropped passes, injuries, and some subpar regular-season performances, he’s flashed rejuvenated mojo to spark this offense.
Isiah Pacheco has enormous speed in the Kansas City backfield. Rashee Rice is becoming the steady wide receiver the Chiefs have lacked since the departure of Tyreek Hill.
As for the Niners, this team remains heavily dependent on Christian McCaffrey and the legs of quarterback Brock Purdy. Can they find other weapons? The week between games will help the healing process for Deebo Samuel, a cog they can’t be without.
Super Bowl Historical Betting Trends
Here is something bettors can plug into their opinions, culled from DraftKings research.
- Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 42-15 SU and 40-14-3 ATS (74.1%). The Chiefs outrushed the Eagles last February, 158-115. These teams are razor close in that category going in here. Kansas City has averaged 127 rushing yards in three contests, with San Francisco hitting 133. And this is a Niners team that trailed most of the way in both of their playoff victories. What bettors will assess is whether the Chiefs put extra people in the box or shadow McCaffrey, the heart and soul of the Niners’ offense.
- Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 44-13 SU and 37-17-3 ATS (68.5%). This one actually lost last year as the Eagles and QB Jalen Hurts outgained Mahomes and the Chiefs in this category, 8 to 6.7. This may be a take it with a grain of salt category. Short crisp passes can keep the clock running and the Niners use swing passes to McCaffrey like running plays.
- In the 45 previous Super Bowls in which there was a turnover advantage for either team, the team that had fewer turnovers has lost just eight times, going 35-9-1 ATS (79.5%). The Kansas City defense has been making plays in major postseason tests. They delivered a critical scoop-and-score touchdown against the Eagles last year and knocked the ball away from Zay Flowers, denying a sure Baltimore touchdown last week. Best of all, the Chiefs got a turnover and kept their 17-7 lead.
- Teams that win the time of possession battle are 41-16 SU and 39-15-3 ATS (72.2%) in the history of the Super Bowl, but the Eagles were the latest to lose on that edge, holding the ball for about 11.5 minutes longer than Kansas City. That was a quirk last year, but that’s still the place you want to be. Both teams are excellent ball-control units.
Super Bowl ATS and Moneyline Betting Trends
- Favorites in the Super Bowl are 35-21 SU but own an ATS mark of 25-28-3 (47.2%), with the 1982 game having been a pick’em point spread. However, over the past 22 years, underdogs own a 16-6 ATS (72.7%) edge, including 12-4 ATS in the last 16. Kansas City pulled the outright upset last year as 1.5-point underdogs, 38-35.
- The straight-up winner is 47-7-3 ATS (87%) in the 57 previous Super Bowls. This is the highest mark of any playoff round. Interestingly, one of those ATS losses did occur in 2022 as the Cincinnati Bengals became the first underdog to cover a point spread without winning on a Super Bowl line of less than 6.
- The team that is the better playoff seed is just 2-15-2 ATS (11.8%) in the last 26 Super Bowl games. Based on that, edge to Kansas City over the No. 1 seeded Niners.
- The team with the better record going into the Super Bowl game is 30-19 SU all-time but has lost 11 of the last 13 and is on a 1-15 ATS skid since 2004, including the Los Angeles Rams (12-5) ATS loss to the Bengals (10-7) in 2022. The New England Patriots’ epic comeback against the Atlanta Falcons in the 2017 game was the only ATS win. This trend was not in play last season but will be here.
Super Bowl Over/Under Betting Trends
- The results are nearly split with 28 Overs, 27 Unders, and 1 push. Before the 2023 Over, the most recent four had gone Under, the first time there was that much of an Under streak since the four straight in 2005-08. The 2023 game went Over by 21.5 points, the biggest margin on that wagering option since Philadelphia beat New England, 41-33, in 2018 on a total of 49.