A season-high point spread of -16, exceptional betting support for three chalks, and another game in Germany (this one between the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots) highlight NFL Week 10.
Here are our NFL betting trends for Week 10, along with Wednesday betting odds at DraftKings.
NFL Week 10: Bettors Pounce on Three Favorites
Gamblers back the Dallas Cowboys at a whopping -16 (Best Live Odds: ) on Sunday against their NFC East rival New York Giants on Sunday. That line could drift as high as 17, as the Giants have taxi-squad quarterback Tommy DeVito behind center.
Despite the high hurdle, the early handle favors Dallas at 92%.
The Detroit Lions, meanwhile, lead all chalks with 97% handle at -2.5 (Best Live Odds: ), up from -1.5, against the Los Angeles Chargers.
The Seattle Seahawks have 91% of the money at -6 (Best Live Odds: ) against the Washington Commanders.
Before these developments, the DraftKings betting line of the Chicago Bears -4 (Best Live Odds: ) against the visiting Carolina Panthers on Thursday night projects Justin Fields returning for Chicago. He’s been out since the middle of October with a thumb injury.
Let’s unpack the week gamblers have already jumped on.
Bears vs Panthers: Yes, There Are Bets
Throw out the records when gambling is involved.
Never mind the Bears entering at 2-7 and the Panthers at 1-7. This is the type of game the NFL should publicly thank sports betting for rescuing.
There would be few people watching the game outside of these markets without wagering action.
“This is the kind of game you say to your spouse, ‘Honey, I am going to take you out to dinner this week, I’m going to give up football,’” Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, laughed through that remark to Gaming Today.
“She knows you watch football on Thursday, on Saturday with colleges, and then Sunday and Monday in the NFL. So, you pass up this game and try to be a hero. She doesn’t know the records of the teams.”
The bettors, meanwhile, already have some props to stab at.
Bears vs Panthers Touchdown Scorers (First, Anytime)
- D’onta Foreman (+500, -105)
- Justin Fields (+600, -125) Would he really risk re-injury by running one in, especially early? Maybe. He’s chomping at the bit to get back.
- DJ Moore (+700, +155)
- Chuba Hubbard (+760, +130)
- Cole Kmet (+950, +185). He had two touchdowns last week and is a force. The Bears’ tight end should be targeted more. He’s a good physical player and difference-maker.
- Adam Thielen (+950, +185). Always a good play, both in scoring and yardage, for the Panthers.
- Darnell Mooney (+2000, +500). He gets targeted often enough to hit the jackpot now and then.
Hit one of these bets and what do you care what the teams’ records are? Money in your digital wallet still spends.
The total of 39 (Best Live Odds: ) may interest Over bettors. Fields will likely direct an up-tempo effort. Da Bears lit it up for 40 points the last time they played on Thursday night, topping the Washington Commanders, 40-20.
The game will get decent betting handle because of its positioning and the spread puts it in reach for all types of wagers.
NFL Week 10 Prop Targets for Popular Wagering Choices
The Lions come off a bye, bringing a 6-2 mark on the moneyline and ATS into Los Angeles. The Chargers just notched their second straight win, drubbing the New York Jets, 27-6, on Monday night.
Austin Ekeler and Keenan Allen will be prime prop considerations for the Chargers.
Detroit’s Amon Ra-St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, and the returning David Montgomery will entice scoring and yardage interest from gamblers. If Montgomery doesn’t return, Jahmyr Gibbs will become an option.
What to do about the Cowboys and Giants? 16 is a huge ask for the Cowboys, but big hurdles have been cleared before. The San Francisco 49ers covered -14.5 in topping the Arizona Cardinals, 35-16, in Week 4.
The Dolphins cleared -12.5 in topping the New York Giants 21-16 and -13.5 in a 42-21 victory over the Panthers. And they trailed 14-0 early, making that a 27.5-point hole they crawled out of.
Exceptional teams beat really bad ones
“You can’t bet the moneyline on the Cowboys, there is no money to be made if you are anywhere from -1100 to -1600 at some places,” Avello noted. “It’s not easy to lay that many points. I mean you can do alternative spreads, etc., but it’s a tough spot to play.
“16 is no good anyway. Might as well make it 17, 18, or 20 and try to make some money there. If the Giants had Daniel Jones, you figure they hang around for a little while and maybe you push that number down some more with an alternate line, but there’s hardly anywhere to go with it.
“And you can’t take the Giants straight up with Tommy DeVito.”
No. The Giants lost to the Cowboys, 40-0, with Jones in Week 1.
But there is always room for a spot player.
Prop stabs on touchdown scorers like CeeDee Lamb, Jake Ferguson, and Tony Pollard (the Cowboys may feed him the ball if they are running downhill) all look possible. So does a Cowboys special team score. They had two on opening night.
Seahawks vs Commanders NFL Week 10 Preview
How did Seattle get 91% of the early handle?
The Seahawks play well at home and bettors think -6 is reachable.
The Commanders, meanwhile, have become an excellent under-the-radar spread team. They nailed a backdoor push against the Philadelphia Eagles, 38-31, at +7 and once led by 14 points.
They followed with a 20-17 triumph over the New England Patriots at +2.5.
Washington is 5-4 ATS and 4-1 on the road. The Commanders have saved their best work for games away from home.
Prop-wise, Sam Howell is an emerging star at quarterback and Terry McLaurin has become a reliable scoring and yardage threat.
The Seahawks only averaged 15 points per game over their last four. Tyler Lockett, D.K. Metcalf, and Kenneth Walker are the top prop weapons for quarterback Geno Smith. Walker has been his first choice. Bettors will look to him for first and anytime scores.
The Seahawks are 5-3 ATS and moneyline.
Niners Have High Expectations vs Jaguars
Bettors take the San Francisco 49ers with 79% at -3 (Best Live Odds: ) against the host Jacksonville Jaguars.
That’s Capital R-type respect.
The Niners have lost three straight and yielded the NFC West lead to the Seahawks.
The Jags have a league-high five-game win streak, all with covers.
You’d think the Jags would be the play based on recent streaks.
But the Niners are a popular team and bettors may think they hit bottom as the Jags peaked.
San Francisco hopes to get Deebo Samuel back into its lineup. That will be a substantial advantage. Trent Williams remains out.
All-world Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk are prime betting targets for Niners backers.
Travis Etienne and Calvin Ridley are scoring threats for the Jags, who seek a statement victory against an elite team.
So far, the bettors think they won’t get it.
Avello labeled the Houston Texans, who visit the Cincinnati Bengals at +6.5 or +7 (Best Live Odds: ) across the books, a potential “wise guy game.”
“That’s a lot of points for this Houston team that just had a big game last week,” Avello noted of the Texans’ pulsating 39-37 triumph over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
“A wise guy is going to look at that game and be looking to get over a touchdown,” Avello said.
Cincinnati has 68% of the early handle.
Houston launched an under-the-radar roll to become 4-4. The Texans are 4-2 in their most recent ATS run, but it would have been 5-1 if they hadn’t suffered the loss of their field goal kicker during their last game.
It’s CJ Stroud against Joe Burrow and this should be one of the week’s most entertaining games.
Burrow has Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Joe Mixon to spread the ball, too. Bettors also look at Irv Smith, who returned +2000 to them as the first touchdown scorer in Cincinnati’s 24-18 triumph over the Buffalo Bills.
Dalton Schultz is a force for the Texans, proving why he was signed away from the Cowboys in the offseason. They also had three receivers — Tank Dell, Schultz, and Noah Brown — clear 100 yards last week.
Stroud is proving to be the pick of the draft. Bettors will make sure to catch this game for the entertainment value alone.
NFL Week 10: Bettors Anticipate Three Nail Biters
These feature betting that is close to down the middle.
The Minnesota Vikings, injected with the energy of Joshua Dobbs, host the New Orleans Saints at +2.5 (Best Live Odds: ). Gamblers have 52% early handle on New Orleans.
The Vikings have won four straight but have been injury-riddled. Receiver KJ Osborn remains in concussion protocol from a Week 8 injury and running back Cam Akers suffered a season-ending Achilles injury.
This team already lost quarterback Kirk Cousins for the season and has been without stud receiver Justin Jefferson for several weeks. He’s close to coming back.
The Saints look to quarterback Derek Carr and running back Alvin Kamara as their top weapons. Tayson Hill is a valued asset near the goal line.
Another tight game is the Bucs -1 vs. the Tennessee Titans. Will Levis plays his third game at QB for the Titans, who also have Derrick Henry. The Bucs have Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans.
And Kyler Murray is due back for the Arizona Cardinals this week. His season debut changes this line to Atlanta -1 (Best Live Odds: ) after the Cardinals have been a double-digit dog or close to it each week.
NFL Week 10 Sample (FanDuel)
These bets combine totals for two players. The key to cashing is usually one player going off and the other holding steady.
Amon-Ra St. Brown and CeeDee Lamb (200 yards) at +280. Two weeks ago, Lamb’s companion on this wager was Cooper Kupp. Lamb did more than his part, gaining 158 yards. Kupp only got 21 and the bet lost.
St. Brown and Lamb both have a chance for big games against the Chargers and Giants, respectively. But Lamb may have to get his early before the Cowboys pull away.
Dak Prescott or Sam Howell to reach 350 yards at +370. How much will Prescott need to pass?
Burrow and Stroud to combine for 650 yards. That’s a deserved +750. Players rarely come right back to their monster performance. Stroud had 470 yards last week. Either each QB must notch 325 yards or one of them needs a monster game.
Taysom Hill 1 passing and 1 receiving touchdown at +2400. He can do it all and the Saints need razzle-dazzle operations near the goal line. Hill is a different type of MVP. He is the Most Versatile Player.
BetMGM Sportsbook Insights: NFL Division Futures
- Favorite: Dolphins (-200)
- Highest Ticket%: Bills 30.9%
- Highest Handle%: Bills 55.8%
- Biggest liability: Bills
BetMGM Sportsbook loves this. The Dolphins have taken over first place and the Bills are scuffling. Buffalo was the more proven team coming into the season and has had Miami’s number lately. The teams meet at the end of the season in Miami.
- Favorite: Ravens (-150)
- Highest Ticket%: Bengals 29.9%
- Highest Handle%: Bengals 27.9%
- Biggest liability: Steelers
We will take a deeper look at the Bengals, who have surged from +470 to 270, on Bontempo’s Betting Beat later this week.
- Favorite: Jaguars (-500)
- Highest Ticket%: Titans 40.8%
- Highest Handle%: Jaguars 43.4%
- Biggest liability: Titans
The book will avoid big liability in this division. The Titans are in last place.
- Favorite: Chiefs (-1000)
- Highest Ticket%: Chiefs 41.4%
- Highest Handle%: Chiefs 83.7%
- Biggest liability: Chiefs
- Favorite: Eagles (-650)
- Highest Ticket%: Eagles 32.8%
- Highest Handle%: Eagles 64.7%
- Biggest liability: Commanders
The big liability is safe. But the Eagles and Cowboys may stage a fight to the finish.
- Favorite: Lions (-1000)
- Highest Ticket%: Lions 46.7%
- Highest Handle%: Lions 60.0%
- Biggest liability: Lions
Bettors anticipated the changing of the guard from the Vikings to the Lions. Detroit’s first division title since 1993 looks like a fait accompli.
- Favorite: Saints (-150)
- Highest Ticket%: Saints 49.3%
- Highest Handle%: Saints 65.5%
- Biggest liability: Saints
Wide open. Captivating. The Saints have earned the driver’s seat.
- Favorite: 49ers (-400)
- Highest Ticket%: Seahawks 39.9%
- Highest Handle%: 49ers 74.4%
- Biggest liability: 49ers
The Seahawks are in first place. They are not expected to stay there. But the book is saying maybe, just maybe.