NFL Betting Trends, Week 11: Gamblers Buy Dips on Eagles, Bills

Buy on the dip.

That’s what DraftKings futures bettors have done in the aftermath of shocking Week 10 upsets suffered by the popular Super Bowl-favored Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles.

The sportsbook’s gamblers jumped on the Bills, after their odds to win Super Bowl 57 rose from +290 to +400. Buffalo garners 19% of the bets and 17% of the handle at the new price after their 33-30 overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings.

Gamblers flocked to the price change now that the 6-3 Bills are second to the 7-3 Miami Dolphins in the AFC East. Buffalo has lost two straight, including a 20-17 setback to the New York Jets in Week 9.

The Eagles, shoved off their unbeaten pedestal with Monday’s 32-21 loss to the Washington Commanders, saw their odds rise from +500 to +600 to win the Super Bowl. That was enough to cajole 7% of DraftKings tickets and 6% of the handle.

Chiefs Remain Steady, 49ers’ Super Bowl Odds Tighten

The Kansas City Chiefs’ Super Bowl odds at DraftKings remain steady at +500, and the team is receiving 9% of both the tickets and handle.

Also read: Chiefs futures odds across various markets

One contender has rising performance and falling value.

The San Francisco 49ers train is close to leaving the station. The Niners are the only team to incur a major shift, moving from +1100 to +900 to take it all.

The team that shot from +1800 to +1300 after obtaining Christian McCaffrey has surged again. At the +900 price, the Niners obtained 5% of the bets and 7% of the handle.

As Week 11 begins Thursday night, with the Green Bay Packers line darting between -3 and -3.5 against the Tennessee Titans at DraftKings, here’s a look around the league.

Two divisions stand out.

The NFC and AFC East don’t have a losing team.

The NFC East, a recent laughingstock of the NFL, has the league’s best record at 26-11.

All its teams opened as favorites this week, including three on the road.

How the betting lines are moving: NFL Week 11 Odds

NFC East Betting Trends

Philadelphia Eagles: 8-1

Recent Trend: 1-1 on moneyline, 0-2 vs the spread
Next Up: At Indianapolis Colts

The Eagles have landed on earth, suffering their first loss against the Washington Commanders in Week 10. For the first time in four weeks, they won’t be double-digit chalk.

But they didn’t fall far.

They opened at -7.5 against the Colts, with 79% of the early handle favoring Indy. Colts money drove the line down to Philly -6.5, and Indy money was still riding at 72% handle.

Late Tuesday night, the line was back up to Philadelphia +7.5. Bettors jockey on either side of the ‘7’ number, hoping to find the right spot.

Injury news to Dallas Goedert may further shake some Eagles backers. The solid tight end will miss extended time with a shoulder injury sustained Monday night. Jack Stoll is the next man up at this point. That’s a projected drop-off.

Indianapolis plays its first home game under new coach and former Colt center Jeff Saturday. He debuted with a 25-20 triumph over the Las Vegas Raiders at +4 last week.

New York Giants: 7-2

Recent Trends: 5-1 versus moneyline and spread
Next Up: Versus Detroit Lions

The second-place G-Men took 66% of the early handle at -3 against a stubborn and feisty Detroit Lions team, which seeks its third straight triumph.

Big Blue’s defense has been exceptional at home, yielding just over 17 points per game and creating red-zone takeaways.

They face a Lions team off a come-from-behind 31-30 verdict over the Chicago Bears. The Lions overcame a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter.

Dallas Cowboys: 6-3

Recent trends: 2-1 versus spread and on the moneyline after return of Dak Prescott
Next Up: At Minnesota Vikings

The Cowboys can wind up as a favorite or dog in a game attractive to both sides.

They opened at -1 against the 8-1 Vikings, who have won seven straight. The line suggests Minnesota could have an emotional letdown after its rally from 17 points down to top the host Bills.

The bettors initially jumped on Minnesota with 58% of the handle. And 69% of the handle went on the Minnesota moneyline, which paid +100 versus -110 for the spread.

The Cowboys are just the opposite of the Vikings. They let a big lead slip away.

Dallas had been 195-0 after holding a two-touchdown fourth-quarter lead before losing a 28-14 fourth-quarter margin to the Green Bay Packers and a 31-28 overtime verdict.

This is one time the vaunted Cowboys D under-performed.

Back the Boys? NFL Week 11 Betting Tips & Strategies

Washington Commanders: 5-5

Recent Trends: 4-1 on moneyline and 4-0-1 versus spread

The Commanders, who authored a ball-control clinic against the Eagles, garnered 54% of the early handle at -3 against the host Houston Texans. That drove the line up. It was -3.5 Tuesday with Houston gaining 75% of the handle. It will be interesting to see if Houston support is big enough to drive this back down to 3.

The Commanders are red-hot on the spread line, sporting an NFC best 4-0-1 against the number in their last five weeks. Bettors enjoyed that, but most of the run came in the underdog role. The performance has generated respect and Washington has a rare favored slot.

If the Commanders win, every NFC East team is above .500. This team can’t win the division but lurks on the wild-card fringe.
AFC East Betting Trends

AFC East Betting Trends

Another hot division is the AFC East. All of its teams are over .500, and the New England Patriots, who dominated this division for several years, are last at 5-4.

The overview:

Buffalo Bills: 6-3

Recent Trend: Losses to the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings, as strong favorites.
Up Next: Versus Cleveland Browns

The Bills remain substantial favorites. They opened at -8.5 and gained well above 60% of the betting handle.

Cleveland has a pounding ground attack with Nick Chubb, but he’s ineffective if the Browns must play from behind. They were bludgeoned by the Dolphins 39-17 last week.

This is an emotional gut check for Buffalo. The Bills not only blew a 17-point lead to the Vikings but Josh Allen fumbled the snap in the endzone on an attempted QB sneak that could have clinched the game with under a minute left.

Buffalo needs a game to prove it’s not snakebit. Another loss would further shake up the futures market.

The other two teams in this division face each other. And it should be dynamic. The 6-3 Jets visit the 5-4 Patriots.

Jets: 6-3

Recent trend: A 22-17 loss to the Patriots in a game they should have won. Followed by a 20-17 win over the Buffalo Bills at +12, one of the biggest moneyline upsets of the year.

This is a highly-emotional team, mirroring the sentiment of its fiery coach, Robert Saleh. It can both make big plays or suffer large letdowns.

The Jets were the first team to go Over its projected win total (5.5) at the sportsbooks.

The Jets have lost 13 in a row to the Patriots. The last time they met was supposed to be the game they vanquished those demons.
Is this the game?

Bettors say J-E-T-S. The Jets had 69% of the early handle at +3 and 63% of the moneyline handle at +145.

New England Patriots: 5-4

Recent trends: Running right where the books projected, on target for a 9-8 season. Can go two games over .500 for the first time this year.

A grind-it-out team that makes the most of low-scoring games. They mirror the low-key businesslike demeanor of their coach Bill Belichick, who is 15-7 following a bye week.

Prop bettors: Belichick is one of the few coaches who leans on the kicking game. He will take the three points over a fourth-down gamble most of the time.

In their last matchup, Nick Folk had five field goals. That means field goals and kicking total points are viable props. Winds are not expected to be a factor Sunday.

Totals Bettors: The last two Patriots games have gone Under, including the 22-17 win over the Jets.

Public Underdogs in NFL Week 11 Betting

Dogs were 9-5 last week, and there is some big sentiment for a couple of them here.

The Bears are +3 against the host Atlanta Falcons and generated 98% of the early handle. This has been, by far, the highest betting affirmation for any team this week.

The Pittsburgh Steelers are +5 against the Cincinnati Bengals and garnered 81% of the initial handle.

The Denver Broncos are the most notable favorite being supported. They were at 81% handle at -2.5 against the troubled, 2-7 Las Vegas Raiders.

Ten Bucks and A Little Luck

One DraftKings bettor turned a $10 12-team parlay into $21,588. The bet had +215787 odds and here are the winning legs:

• TB Buccaneers -2.5
• NY Giants -4.5
• PIT Steelers +1.5
• KC Chiefs -9
• TEN Titans -2.5
• MIN Vikings +3.5
• GB Packers +4.5
• ARI Cardinals +1.5
• LA Chargers +7
• IND Colts +4.5
• DET Lions +3
• WAS Commanders +11

This was well-earned. It would have taken extreme faith to back this ticket when the Vikings trailed the Bills 27-10 late in the third quarter and when the Packers were behind the Cowboys by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter. But both of those comebacks happened.

The Kansas City victory was a close shave, with two missed Jacksonville field goals preserving the Chiefs -9 in a 27-17 victory.
The bettor needed three good breaks on a ticket had seven relatively easy winners.

Excellent ticket. Low risk, exceptional reward.

Tua Getting Love in MVP Betting at Caesars

The Dolphins are idle on the field but active at the books. There are nine players with MVP odds of +5000 (50/1) or lower at Caesars, and the Dolphins are the only team with two of them. That’s quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and wide receiver Tyreek Hill.
Tagovailoa is the fourth favorite at +700, only behind Patrick Mahomes (+140), Jalen Hurts (+280), and Josh Allen (+500). Hill is tied with Tom Brady for the eighth-shortest odds at +5000 and is the only non-quarterback at +5000 or better.

Tagovailoa has been surging, going from +5000 to +700 in a few days.

His value can be measured two ways. The Dolphins are 7-0 in games he starts and finishes. They are 0-3 without him. That’s an MVP endorsement.

“What constitutes somebody as an MVP can be different to different people,” said Adam Pullen, Assistant Director of Trading at Caesars Sportsbook. “Miami’s three losses this season all came when Tua was hurt. In my mind, that’s a big positive for his case since it shows his meaning to the team. You can’t fault what he’s been doing when he has been out there. If he continues to put up good numbers and the Dolphins continue to win, he’s going to get a lot of attention. But a lot will be told in the second half of the season, they have a lot of tough games coming up.”

In November, no player has received more bets at Caesars than Tagovailoa. He leads the way with 21.2% of tickets, followed by Hurts at 15.5% and Smith at 13.8%. Mahomes is next at 9.5%, with Hill coming in fifth at 8.7%.

Hill has 1,148 yards (114.8 per game) game and could flirt with the league’s first-ever 2,000-yard receiving season.

If Hill and Tagovailoa stay healthy, the Dolphins will be a major Super Bowl threat.

Earlier in the month, one Nevada bettor staked $100,000 on the Dolphins at +3000 for a potential win of $3 million. That is the largest Super Bowl bet taken thus far at Caesars Sportsbook for this season.

“With how the Dolphins finished last year, a lot of people, including myself, were looking for big things from them this year,” Pullen said. “They’re proving it so far halfway through. People are always drawn to the high-powered offenses. People like offense and they like points, they get more excited seeing an offense consistently go up and down the field. That plays a factor as to why the Dolphins have been getting a lot of Super Bowl action.”

What’s Ahead: Bills, Chiefs Open as Double-Digit Favorites on Week 12 Look-Ahead Lines

NFL Week 11 Odds

Here are point spreads, totals, and moneylines from top sports betting apps for the week’s card: