NFL Betting Trends, Week 12: Rams vs. Chiefs Has Largest Point Spread of 2022 Season

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The largest point spread of the year may beckon bettors in Week 12 of the 2022 NFL season.

The Kansas City Chiefs appear ready to exceed the -14.5 mark, held by the Buffalo Bills before they demolished the Pittsburgh Steelers 38-3 in Week 5.

The Chiefs were -14.5 against the Rams on Wednesday morning and look poised to reach -15 at some point, according to Johnny Avello, the Director of Race and Sportsbook Operations for DraftKings.

The large spread poses a quandary for bettors. How many points are too many?

When sportsbooks have listed double-digit favorites this year, the handle has become fairly balanced. Indeed, 60% of the early handle went on the Rams. 

“The Rams are going nowhere, and the Chiefs are one of those teams capable of putting up 40 points to cover that number, but the flip side is that this is an awful lot of points to give in the NFL,” Avello told Gaming Today. “Nobody in the NFL is that much better than any other team, and you have to consider the human nature of the players knowing how much they are favored.

“They are going to do enough to win the game, but are you going to give everything once you are at that point that you already have the game won?

“The other thing with a spread this large is that you can be down by three touchdowns and get a late touchdown when the defense is just trying to let the clock keep moving,” he added. “You might get a late cover.”

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The Miami Dolphins stood at -13 early in the week against the Houston Texans. Where does the gamesmanship come in here? It could be with bettors teasing the Dolphins down to less than a touchdown and combining it with another game. They may wish to make that bet now rather than if Miami’s line goes up another 1-1.5 points.

Betting parity via big spreads carries into the Thanksgiving Day schedule at DraftKings.

The host Detroit Lions garnered 60% of the early handle at -10 against the Buffalo Bills. Lions bettors also weighed in at a healthy 29% handle for the moneyline price of +340. Not only have the Lions won three straight, but they manhandled the New York Giants in a no-doubt-about-it 31-18 triumph in Week 11.

The Giants have 54% of the early handle at +9.5 against the host Dallas Cowboys.

A low spread also generates a balanced handle on Thursday. The Minnesota Vikings had 57% of the early handle against the New England Patriots at -3.

As for how the book sees the big picture, DraftKings lists the over-under point total for all three games at 140.5 points. That’s just under 47 points each game. The big test to that projection might be the low-scoring Patriots visiting the high-scoring Vikings, who somehow laid an egg in their 40-3 thrashing by the Cowboys on Sunday.

Patriots vs. Vikings: Odds and prediction | Player props and TD scorer bets

NFL Week 12 Betting Trends at DraftKings

The Los Angeles Chargers gained the highest early backing at 78% against the Arizona Cardinals at -4.5. 

The Washington Commanders opened at -3 and quickly went to -4 against the Atlanta Falcons. Part of that move could be 72% of the early betting handle. Washington is rolling behind newly-named starting quarterback Taylor Heinicke and could go two games over .500 for the first time this year.

In what could be the game of the day, the Tennessee Titans are +1.5 against the Cincinnati Bengals.

This is not only a playoff rematch — won last year by Cincinnati — but a classic rubber-meets-the-road battle.

The defending AFC champion Bengals had a sputtering start and twice failed to get over the top in road losses to the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns.

They are playing well lately and have reached two games above .500 (6-4) for the first time this year.

Cincinnati had a strong offensive effort in toppling the Pittsburgh Steelers 37-30 last week. The Bengals are putting it together but have yet to light up a quality defense.

And they face one here. The Titans have not allowed more than 20 points in seven straight weeks and the 20 points yielded came against the explosive Chiefs.

The Titans are the Sultans of the Spread, covering eight straight weeks.

But they never gain an overwhelming level of support. Avello said that’s because the Titans are not a public team. They haven’t captured the imagination of the general public.

That’s just how some bettors prefer it.

NFL Week 12: OddsBetting tips and strategies | Teaser picks

Panthers Try to Find QB Fit: Darnold, Mayfield, or Walker?

Three weeks, three new starters.

The Carolina Panthers will go back to Sam Darnold when hosting the Denver Broncos as a slight dog Sunday.

Baker Mayfield, whom the team traded for in the offseason, was benched after an ineffective effort against the Baltimore Ravens in a 13-3 loss. He had started in place of the injured PJ Walker.

Darnold gets the nod as the Panthers continue spinning their wheels.

Darnold and Mayfield are part of a bizarre puzzle, showing that some can’t-miss selections don’t pan out.

In the 2018 NFL Draft, Mayfield was the first player chosen by the Cleveland Browns. Darnold was taken third by the Jets.

Both ended up being traded to the Panthers and scuffled. So now the No.  1 pick in the 2018 Draft is benched in favor of the No. 3. pick. And to rub salt in that wound, both players were taken ahead of a player who has thrived: Bills quarterback Josh Allen. He was taken seventh.

Lamar Jackson, the 2019 NFL MVP, was taken 32nd by the Baltimore Ravens.

Panthers interim coach Steve Wilks is using the rest of this year presumably to see if any of these three quarterbacks can inspire confidence. If not, one may be used to groom a 2023 pick.

Two Notable Monday Night Football Week 11 Hits

DraftKings bettors cashed in on Jimmy Garoppolo to toss more than 1.5 touchdowns. He threw four in San Francisco’s 38-10 rout of the Arizona Cardinals.

Gamblers also cashed at +800 for Brandon Aiyuk to haul in the first touchdown.

Notable Bets from NFL Week 11

Quarter mania

One customer placed a $0.25 bet on a 2-leg parlay that paid out $650.25. The following selections were:

  • ATL Falcons 27, CHI Bears 24
  • LA Chargers 27, KC Chiefs 30

Now, THIS is research.

NFL Betting Trends, Week 12: Largest Point Spread of the 2022 Season
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs continue to factor into NFL betting trends (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

One customer turned a $5 bet into $7,505 after hitting on a 10-leg Same Game Parlay on the Chiefs-Chargers Sunday Night Football game. The following legs of the bet were:

  • Austin Ekeler: Over 49.5 Rushing Yards
  • Patrick Mahomes: Under 29.5 Rushing Yards       
  • Austin Ekeler: Under 49.5 Receiving Yards
  • Kadarius Toney: Under 49.5 Receiving Yards
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Under 49.5 Receiving Yards
  • Travis Kelce: Over 84.5 Receiving Yards
  • Each Team Total Touchdowns: Under 3.5
  • Each Team Total Points: Over 23.5
  • Each Team Total Points: Over 11.5 (1st Half)
  • Each Team Total Points: Over 0.5 (1st Quarter)

One customer placed a $15.63 wager on 4-leg SGP at +60000 odds that paid out $9,393.63. The following legs were:

  • Travis Kelce: To Score 2 or More Touchdowns
  • Joshua Palmer: To Score 2 or More Touchdowns
  • Travis Kelce: Over 94.5 Receiving Yards
  • Josh Palmer Alternate Receiving Yards: 65+

A customer placed a $5 SGP bet that paid out $5,605 at odds of +80000 with a 40% profit boost. Below are the winning legs:

  • Melvin Gordon III Alternate Receiving Yards: 38+
  • Latavius Murray Alternate Receiving Yards: 20+
  • Courtland Sutton: Over 79.5 Receiving Yards
  • Davante Adams: Over 84.5 Receiving Yards
  • Josh Jacobs: Over 84.5 Rushing Yards
  • Josh Jacobs: Over 34.5 Receiving Yards

One customer placed a player to score 2 or more touchdowns parlay.  Only three players were needed for this parlay, but the 3-legger was able to pay out $9,240 from a $20 bet. The following players needed were:

  • Tony Pollard: To Score 2 or More Touchdowns
  • Najee Harris: Score 2 or More Touchdowns
  • Davante Adams: To Score 2 or More Touchdowns

This was a betting version of a come-from-behind score. Harris scored a garbage-time TD for the Pittsburgh Steelers in their 37-30 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.

Adams delivered the bet winner in overtime, hauling in the game-winner as the Raiders topped the Broncos, 22-16. And to think Denver was one play away from a regulation kneel-down before the Raiders stopped them.

Giants vs. Cowboys: Odds and prediction | Player props and TD scorer bets

Juggling the Lines at FanDuel

The book enabled some Minnesota action on Thursday by moving the line from -3 to -2.5 at a price of -118. This at least gets bettors off the dreaded “3” number. That’s where they usually wait to see whether the next half-point move works in their direction.

FanDuel also moved the Cincinnati game to -2.5, a big enticement for Titans bettors seeing +1.5 elsewhere.

Square Odds on Rushing Honors at Caesars

It’s a field of three for the touchdown title. Beat two players and get +300. That’s what bettors weigh in a fair wager.

The competition to garner the most rushing touchdowns has Jamaal Williams at 12 touchdowns, Nick Chubb at 11, and Derrick Henry at 10. 

Jalen Hurts has eight touchdowns for Philadelphia and would be quite a price at +1100. But making up four scores is quite an assignment.

Read: Bills vs. Lions odds and prediction

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Kansas City Stock, Philadelphia Value Rise at PointsBet

Faith in the Kansas City Chiefs is soaring, as the book vaulted Kansas City all the way up to +400 as the Super Bowl favorite.

Buffalo, which dominated this spot for the first half of the season, slid to + 425 (+450 at DraftKings). The Bills had been under +200 until having three less-than-dominant performances, two of them losses.

On the flip side, Eagles bettors get a dip-buying opportunity.

The Eagles have hit a rough patch with a loss to the Washington Commanders and a narrow victory over the Indianapolis Colts. They have been elevated to +650, a deal for their backers of about 50-100 basis points over other books.

In a large-sized bet, that matters.

NFL Week 12 Odds

Here are point spreads, totals, and moneylines from top sports betting apps for the week’s card:

Bet TypeSpreads
Open
Thu (11/23) @ 12:37pm ET GB Packers +290 -1429 -10000 -10000 0 0
DET Lions -370 +750 +3300 +2500 +2500 +5000
Thu (11/23) @ 4:35pm ET WAS Commanders +350 +1800 +3300 +4000 +1700 +4500
DAL Cowboys -455 -5000 -10000 0 -10000 0
Thu (11/23) @ 8:23pm ET SF 49ers -200 -10000 -5000 -5000 -333 -5000 -5000
SEA Seahawks +165 +2200 +1250 +1200 +255 +1300 +1500
Fri (11/24) @ 3:05pm ET MIA Dolphins -345 0 -10000 -10000 -476 0 0
NY Jets +275 +4000 +3300 +2500 +350 +2000 +15000
Sun (11/26) @ 1:02pm ET JAX Jaguars -115 -400 -10000 -500 -588 -357
HOU Texans -105 +280 +3300 +350 +390 +250
Sun (11/26) @ 1:02pm ET PIT Steelers -110 -5000 -10000 -5000 0 -10000
CIN Bengals -110 +1600 +1900 +1800 +3500 +1800
Sun (11/26) @ 1:02pm ET NE Patriots -185 +100 +3300 +100 -111 0
NY Giants +150 -130 -10000 0 -115 0
Sun (11/26) @ 1:02pm ET TB Buccaneers +105 +650 +3300 +3500 +560 +10000
IND Colts -125 -1111 -10000 0 -1000 0
Sun (11/26) @ 1:03pm ET NO Saints -110 +4000 +1150 +700 -135 +900 +850
ATL Falcons -110 0 -3333 -1250 +110 -2500 -1667
Sun (11/26) @ 1:03pm ET CAR Panthers +165 +1800 +2800 +5000 +150 +1300 +1400
TEN Titans -200 -5000 -10000 0 -182 -5000 -10000
Sun (11/26) @ 4:05pm ET LA Rams -120 0 -10000 -2500 -152 -10000 -10000
ARI Cardinals +100 +4000 +2800 +1000 +125 +1700 +2000
Sun (11/26) @ 4:05pm ET CLE Browns +105 +1600 +1400 +900 +107 +1000 +2800
DEN Broncos -125 -5000 -10000 -2000 -128 -3333 0
Sun (11/26) @ 4:25pm ET BUF Bills +145 -115 +180 +350 +123 +148 +130
PHI Eagles -175 -115 -227 -500 -147 -192 -164
Sun (11/26) @ 4:25pm ET KC Chiefs -455 -3333 -10000 -1429 -455 0 0
LV Raiders +340 +1400 +3300 +750 +350 +2000 +9000
Sun (11/26) @ 8:23pm ET BAL Ravens -189 -238 -10000 -179 -175 -213 -2500
LA Chargers +155 +180 +1400 +145 +140 +164 +900
Mon (11/27) @ 8:15pm ET CHI Bears +145 -3333 -2000 +135 -1667 -1250
MIN Vikings -175 +1400 +800 -169 +750 +700
Thu (11/23) @ 12:37pm ET GB Packers +7.5 -110 -6.5 -10000 -14.5 -115 -14.5 -110 -14.5 -125 -7.0 0
DET Lions -7.5 -110 +6.5 +2500 +14.5 -110 +14.5 -120 +14.5 -104 +7.0 0
Thu (11/23) @ 4:35pm ET WAS Commanders +9.5 -110 +34.5 +230 +34.5 +333 +34.5 +670 +34.5 +205 +34.5 +190
DAL Cowboys -9.5 -110 -34.5 -313 -34.5 -500 -34.5 -1250 -34.5 -278 -34.5 -250
Thu (11/23) @ 8:23pm ET SF 49ers -4.5 -110 -17.5 -2500 -18.5 +950 -18.0 +290 -7.0 -110 -17.5 -2500 -17.5 -323
SEA Seahawks +4.5 -110 +17.5 +1100 +18.5 -3333 +18.0 -400 +7.0 -110 +17.5 +900 +17.5 +240
Fri (11/24) @ 3:05pm ET MIA Dolphins -7.5 -110 -20.5 -625 -20.5 -500 +600.0 0 -9.5 -109 -20.5 -385 -20.5 -417
NY Jets +7.5 -110 +20.5 +400 +20.5 +340 -600.0 -263 +9.5 -112 +20.5 +270 +20.5 +310
Sun (11/26) @ 1:02pm ET JAX Jaguars -1.0 -110 -2.5 -179 -10.5 -115 -10.5 +120 -9.5 -152 -2.5 -169
HOU Texans +1.0 -110 +2.5 +140 +10.5 -110 +10.5 -149 +9.5 +116 +2.5 +135
Sun (11/26) @ 1:02pm ET PIT Steelers +4.5 -110 -6.5 +200 -6.0 -667 -8.5 -141 -6.5 +160
CIN Bengals -4.5 -110 +6.5 -270 +6.0 +420 +8.5 +108 +6.5 -200
Sun (11/26) @ 1:02pm ET NE Patriots -3.5 -110 +1.5 -125 +2.5 +185 +2.5 +105 +2.5 +104 +2.5 +150
NY Giants +3.5 -110 -1.5 -105 -2.5 -250 -2.5 -135 -2.5 -135 -2.5 -189
Sun (11/26) @ 1:02pm ET TB Buccaneers +1.5 -105 +7.5 -526 +6.5 -120 +5.5 -115 +6.5 -120 +6.5 +115
IND Colts -1.5 -115 -7.5 +350 -6.5 -110 -5.5 -115 -6.5 -108 -6.5 -145
Sun (11/26) @ 1:03pm ET NO Saints -1.0 -105 +8.5 +100 +6.5 -120 +9.0 +450 -2.0 -112 +8.5 +365 +9.0 -112
ATL Falcons +1.0 -115 -8.5 -130 -6.5 -110 -9.0 -714 +2.0 -109 -8.5 -588 -9.0 -112
Sun (11/26) @ 1:03pm ET CAR Panthers +4.0 -110 +6.5 +100 +7.5 -149 +6.5 +100 +3.5 -114 +6.5 +154 +7.0 0
TEN Titans -4.0 -110 -6.5 -130 -7.5 +115 -6.5 -130 -3.5 -106 -6.5 -204 -7.0 0
Sun (11/26) @ 4:05pm ET LA Rams -15.5 -130 -22.5 -400 -21.5 -1429 -22.5 -714 -3.0 -108 -22.5 -455 -23.0 +190
ARI Cardinals +15.5 +100 +22.5 +280 +21.5 +675 +22.5 +450 +3.0 -115 +22.5 +310 +23.0 -250
Sun (11/26) @ 4:05pm ET CLE Browns +1.5 -110 +16.5 +600 +13.5 +175 +17.0 -125 +2.0 -110 +15.5 -556 +14.5 +230
DEN Broncos -1.5 -110 -16.5 -1000 -13.5 -250 -17.0 -105 -2.0 -110 -15.5 +365 -14.5 -303
Sun (11/26) @ 4:25pm ET BUF Bills +3.0 +100 -2.5 -125 +1.5 -175 +3.5 +115 +2.5 -103 +3.5 +125 +4.0 -125
PHI Eagles -3.0 -120 +2.5 -105 -1.5 +135 -3.5 -145 -2.5 -118 -3.5 -164 -4.0 +100
Sun (11/26) @ 4:25pm ET KC Chiefs -9.5 -110 -13.5 -1111 -17.5 -130 -14.0 -500 -9.0 -110 -14.5 +330 -14.5 +280
LV Raiders +9.5 -110 +13.5 +650 +17.5 +100 +14.0 +350 +9.0 -110 +14.5 -500 +14.5 -370
Sun (11/26) @ 8:23pm ET BAL Ravens -4.0 -110 -9.5 -625 -9.5 -2000 -10.0 -556 -3.5 -106 -9.5 -385 -2.5 -189
LA Chargers +4.0 -110 +9.5 +400 +9.5 +800 +10.0 +380 +3.5 -115 +9.5 +270 +2.5 +150
Mon (11/27) @ 8:15pm ET CHI Bears +3.5 -115 -1.5 +175 -1.5 +165 +3.0 -115 -1.5 +172 +1.0 -149
MIN Vikings -3.5 -105 +1.5 -233 +1.5 -227 -3.0 -115 +1.5 -233 -1.0 +120
Thu (11/23) @ 12:37pm ET GB Packers u44.5 -110 u53.5 -110 u52.5 +105 u50.5 -102 u46 -120
DET Lions o44.5 -110 o53.5 -120 o52.5 -141 o50.5 -128 o46 -105
Thu (11/23) @ 4:35pm ET WAS Commanders u45.5 -110 u54.5 -120 u54.5 +110 u51.5 -135 u53.5 +100
DAL Cowboys o45.5 -110 o54.5 -110 o54.5 -145 o51.5 +104 o53.5 -125
Thu (11/23) @ 8:23pm ET SF 49ers o43.5 -110 o44.5 -105 o44.5 +725 o43.0 -114 o44.5 -110 o44.5 +310
SEA Seahawks u43.5 -110 u44.5 -125 u44.5 -1667 u43.0 -108 u44.5 -118 u44.5 -417
Fri (11/24) @ 3:05pm ET MIA Dolphins o42 -110 o39.5 -135 o39.5 -141 o40.0 -108 o39.5 -147 o47.5 0
NY Jets u42 -110 u39.5 +105 u39.5 +105 u40.0 -114 u39.5 +114 u47.5 0
Sun (11/26) @ 1:02pm ET JAX Jaguars u46.5 -115 u50.5 +114 u46.5 -110 u45.5 -122 u51 -120
HOU Texans o46.5 -105 o50.5 -145 o46.5 -115 o45.5 -106 o51 -105
Sun (11/26) @ 1:02pm ET PIT Steelers u34.5 -110 u22.5 -115 u22.5 -115 u22.5 -110 u22.5 +110
CIN Bengals o34.5 -110 o22.5 -115 o22.5 -115 o22.5 -118 o22.5 -141
Sun (11/26) @ 1:02pm ET NE Patriots o33.5 -110 o22.5 -161 o23.5 +105 o23.5 -108 o23 +115
NY Giants u33.5 -110 u22.5 +124 u23.5 -141 u23.5 -120 u23 -145
Sun (11/26) @ 1:02pm ET TB Buccaneers u42.5 -110 u51.5 -135 u51.5 -115 u50.5 +114 u53.5 -112
IND Colts o42.5 -110 o51.5 +105 o51.5 -115 o50.5 -147 o53.5 -112
Sun (11/26) @ 1:03pm ET NO Saints u41.5 -110 u39.5 -238 u40.5 -200 u42 -110 u42.0 -112 u39.5 +130 u39 +140
ATL Falcons o41.5 -110 o39.5 +180 o40.5 +150 o42 -110 o42.0 -109 o39.5 -169 o39 -175
Sun (11/26) @ 1:03pm ET CAR Panthers o37.5 -105 o32.5 -120 o32.5 -105 o36 -110 o35.5 -110 o30.5 +114 o32.5 -115
TEN Titans u37.5 -115 u32.5 -110 u32.5 -125 u36 -110 u35.5 -110 u30.5 -147 u32.5 -110
Sun (11/26) @ 4:05pm ET LA Rams u46.5 -110 u51.5 -130 u50.5 -110 u45.0 -108 u51.5 -114 u51.5 -323
ARI Cardinals o46.5 -110 o51.5 +100 o50.5 -115 o45.0 -114 o51.5 -114 o51.5 +240
Sun (11/26) @ 4:05pm ET CLE Browns o36.5 -110 o39.5 +114 o39.5 +115 o37.5 -110 o39.5 +120 o39.5 +145
DEN Broncos u36.5 -110 u39.5 -145 u39.5 -149 u37.5 -110 u39.5 -156 u39.5 -179
Sun (11/26) @ 4:25pm ET BUF Bills o47.5 -110 o48.5 -110 o68.5 +100 o48.5 -110 o59.5 -102 o59.5 -105
PHI Eagles u47.5 -110 u48.5 -120 u68.5 -130 u48.5 -110 u59.5 -128 u59.5 -120
Sun (11/26) @ 4:25pm ET KC Chiefs o44.5 -105 o52.5 +110 o52.5 +145 o42.5 -110 o52.5 +104 o52.5 +120
LV Raiders u44.5 -115 u52.5 -141 u52.5 -189 u42.5 -110 u52.5 -135 u52.5 -149
Sun (11/26) @ 8:23pm ET BAL Ravens o46.5 -105 o28.5 -135 o28.5 -145 o48.5 -109 o30.5 +126 o28.5 -141
LA Chargers u46.5 -115 u28.5 +105 u28.5 +110 u48.5 -112 u30.5 -167 u28.5 +110
Mon (11/27) @ 8:15pm ET CHI Bears o45 -110 o22.5 +124 o23.5 +125 o43 -110 o22.5 +136 o22 -120
MIN Vikings u45 -110 u22.5 -161 u23.5 -164 u43 -110 u22.5 -179 u22 -105
About the Author
Dave Bontempo

Dave Bontempo

Writer
Dave Bontempo is an award-winning writer and broadcaster, who has covered the sports industry since the 1970s. He won the Sam Taub Award for Excellence in Boxing Broadcasting by the Boxing Writers Association of America in 1997, and is in the New Jersey and Atlantic City Boxing Halls of Fame. Bontempo has broadcast major fights all over the world. The advent of legalized sports wagering shifted his focus to this exciting new industry in 2018.

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