NFL Betting Trends, Week 12: Rams vs. Chiefs Has Largest Point Spread of 2022 Season

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The largest point spread of the year may beckon bettors in Week 12 of the 2022 NFL season.

The Kansas City Chiefs appear ready to exceed the -14.5 mark, held by the Buffalo Bills before they demolished the Pittsburgh Steelers 38-3 in Week 5.

The Chiefs were -14.5 against the Rams on Wednesday morning and look poised to reach -15 at some point, according to Johnny Avello, the Director of Race and Sportsbook Operations for DraftKings.

The large spread poses a quandary for bettors. How many points are too many?

When sportsbooks have listed double-digit favorites this year, the handle has become fairly balanced. Indeed, 60% of the early handle went on the Rams. 

“The Rams are going nowhere, and the Chiefs are one of those teams capable of putting up 40 points to cover that number, but the flip side is that this is an awful lot of points to give in the NFL,” Avello told Gaming Today. “Nobody in the NFL is that much better than any other team, and you have to consider the human nature of the players knowing how much they are favored.

“They are going to do enough to win the game, but are you going to give everything once you are at that point that you already have the game won?

“The other thing with a spread this large is that you can be down by three touchdowns and get a late touchdown when the defense is just trying to let the clock keep moving,” he added. “You might get a late cover.”

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The Miami Dolphins stood at -13 early in the week against the Houston Texans. Where does the gamesmanship come in here? It could be with bettors teasing the Dolphins down to less than a touchdown and combining it with another game. They may wish to make that bet now rather than if Miami’s line goes up another 1-1.5 points.

Betting parity via big spreads carries into the Thanksgiving Day schedule at DraftKings.

The host Detroit Lions garnered 60% of the early handle at -10 against the Buffalo Bills. Lions bettors also weighed in at a healthy 29% handle for the moneyline price of +340. Not only have the Lions won three straight, but they manhandled the New York Giants in a no-doubt-about-it 31-18 triumph in Week 11.

The Giants have 54% of the early handle at +9.5 against the host Dallas Cowboys.

A low spread also generates a balanced handle on Thursday. The Minnesota Vikings had 57% of the early handle against the New England Patriots at -3.

As for how the book sees the big picture, DraftKings lists the over-under point total for all three games at 140.5 points. That’s just under 47 points each game. The big test to that projection might be the low-scoring Patriots visiting the high-scoring Vikings, who somehow laid an egg in their 40-3 thrashing by the Cowboys on Sunday.

Patriots vs. Vikings: Odds and prediction | Player props and TD scorer bets

NFL Week 12 Betting Trends at DraftKings

The Los Angeles Chargers gained the highest early backing at 78% against the Arizona Cardinals at -4.5. 

The Washington Commanders opened at -3 and quickly went to -4 against the Atlanta Falcons. Part of that move could be 72% of the early betting handle. Washington is rolling behind newly-named starting quarterback Taylor Heinicke and could go two games over .500 for the first time this year.

In what could be the game of the day, the Tennessee Titans are +1.5 against the Cincinnati Bengals.

This is not only a playoff rematch — won last year by Cincinnati — but a classic rubber-meets-the-road battle.

The defending AFC champion Bengals had a sputtering start and twice failed to get over the top in road losses to the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns.

They are playing well lately and have reached two games above .500 (6-4) for the first time this year.

Cincinnati had a strong offensive effort in toppling the Pittsburgh Steelers 37-30 last week. The Bengals are putting it together but have yet to light up a quality defense.

And they face one here. The Titans have not allowed more than 20 points in seven straight weeks and the 20 points yielded came against the explosive Chiefs.

The Titans are the Sultans of the Spread, covering eight straight weeks.

But they never gain an overwhelming level of support. Avello said that’s because the Titans are not a public team. They haven’t captured the imagination of the general public.

That’s just how some bettors prefer it.

NFL Week 12: OddsBetting tips and strategies | Teaser picks

Panthers Try to Find QB Fit: Darnold, Mayfield, or Walker?

Three weeks, three new starters.

The Carolina Panthers will go back to Sam Darnold when hosting the Denver Broncos as a slight dog Sunday.

Baker Mayfield, whom the team traded for in the offseason, was benched after an ineffective effort against the Baltimore Ravens in a 13-3 loss. He had started in place of the injured PJ Walker.

Darnold gets the nod as the Panthers continue spinning their wheels.

Darnold and Mayfield are part of a bizarre puzzle, showing that some can’t-miss selections don’t pan out.

In the 2018 NFL Draft, Mayfield was the first player chosen by the Cleveland Browns. Darnold was taken third by the Jets.

Both ended up being traded to the Panthers and scuffled. So now the No.  1 pick in the 2018 Draft is benched in favor of the No. 3. pick. And to rub salt in that wound, both players were taken ahead of a player who has thrived: Bills quarterback Josh Allen. He was taken seventh.

Lamar Jackson, the 2019 NFL MVP, was taken 32nd by the Baltimore Ravens.

Panthers interim coach Steve Wilks is using the rest of this year presumably to see if any of these three quarterbacks can inspire confidence. If not, one may be used to groom a 2023 pick.

Two Notable Monday Night Football Week 11 Hits

DraftKings bettors cashed in on Jimmy Garoppolo to toss more than 1.5 touchdowns. He threw four in San Francisco’s 38-10 rout of the Arizona Cardinals.

Gamblers also cashed at +800 for Brandon Aiyuk to haul in the first touchdown.

Notable Bets from NFL Week 11

Quarter mania

One customer placed a $0.25 bet on a 2-leg parlay that paid out $650.25. The following selections were:

  • ATL Falcons 27, CHI Bears 24
  • LA Chargers 27, KC Chiefs 30

Now, THIS is research.

NFL Betting Trends, Week 12: Largest Point Spread of the 2022 Season
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs continue to factor into NFL betting trends (AP Photo/Ed Zurga)

One customer turned a $5 bet into $7,505 after hitting on a 10-leg Same Game Parlay on the Chiefs-Chargers Sunday Night Football game. The following legs of the bet were:

  • Austin Ekeler: Over 49.5 Rushing Yards
  • Patrick Mahomes: Under 29.5 Rushing Yards       
  • Austin Ekeler: Under 49.5 Receiving Yards
  • Kadarius Toney: Under 49.5 Receiving Yards
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Under 49.5 Receiving Yards
  • Travis Kelce: Over 84.5 Receiving Yards
  • Each Team Total Touchdowns: Under 3.5
  • Each Team Total Points: Over 23.5
  • Each Team Total Points: Over 11.5 (1st Half)
  • Each Team Total Points: Over 0.5 (1st Quarter)

One customer placed a $15.63 wager on 4-leg SGP at +60000 odds that paid out $9,393.63. The following legs were:

  • Travis Kelce: To Score 2 or More Touchdowns
  • Joshua Palmer: To Score 2 or More Touchdowns
  • Travis Kelce: Over 94.5 Receiving Yards
  • Josh Palmer Alternate Receiving Yards: 65+

A customer placed a $5 SGP bet that paid out $5,605 at odds of +80000 with a 40% profit boost. Below are the winning legs:

  • Melvin Gordon III Alternate Receiving Yards: 38+
  • Latavius Murray Alternate Receiving Yards: 20+
  • Courtland Sutton: Over 79.5 Receiving Yards
  • Davante Adams: Over 84.5 Receiving Yards
  • Josh Jacobs: Over 84.5 Rushing Yards
  • Josh Jacobs: Over 34.5 Receiving Yards

One customer placed a player to score 2 or more touchdowns parlay.  Only three players were needed for this parlay, but the 3-legger was able to pay out $9,240 from a $20 bet. The following players needed were:

  • Tony Pollard: To Score 2 or More Touchdowns
  • Najee Harris: Score 2 or More Touchdowns
  • Davante Adams: To Score 2 or More Touchdowns

This was a betting version of a come-from-behind score. Harris scored a garbage-time TD for the Pittsburgh Steelers in their 37-30 loss to the Cincinnati Bengals.

Adams delivered the bet winner in overtime, hauling in the game-winner as the Raiders topped the Broncos, 22-16. And to think Denver was one play away from a regulation kneel-down before the Raiders stopped them.

Giants vs. Cowboys: Odds and prediction | Player props and TD scorer bets

Juggling the Lines at FanDuel

The book enabled some Minnesota action on Thursday by moving the line from -3 to -2.5 at a price of -118. This at least gets bettors off the dreaded “3” number. That’s where they usually wait to see whether the next half-point move works in their direction.

FanDuel also moved the Cincinnati game to -2.5, a big enticement for Titans bettors seeing +1.5 elsewhere.

Square Odds on Rushing Honors at Caesars

It’s a field of three for the touchdown title. Beat two players and get +300. That’s what bettors weigh in a fair wager.

The competition to garner the most rushing touchdowns has Jamaal Williams at 12 touchdowns, Nick Chubb at 11, and Derrick Henry at 10. 

Jalen Hurts has eight touchdowns for Philadelphia and would be quite a price at +1100. But making up four scores is quite an assignment.

Read: Bills vs. Lions odds and prediction

Caesars Sportsbook

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Kansas City Stock, Philadelphia Value Rise at PointsBet

Faith in the Kansas City Chiefs is soaring, as the book vaulted Kansas City all the way up to +400 as the Super Bowl favorite.

Buffalo, which dominated this spot for the first half of the season, slid to + 425 (+450 at DraftKings). The Bills had been under +200 until having three less-than-dominant performances, two of them losses.

On the flip side, Eagles bettors get a dip-buying opportunity.

The Eagles have hit a rough patch with a loss to the Washington Commanders and a narrow victory over the Indianapolis Colts. They have been elevated to +650, a deal for their backers of about 50-100 basis points over other books.

In a large-sized bet, that matters.

NFL Week 12 Odds

Here are point spreads, totals, and moneylines from top sports betting apps for the week’s card:

Bet TypeSpreads
Open
Thu (11/24) @ 12:34pm ET BUF Bills -370 -1429 -1000 -189 -909 -1667
DET Lions +300 +800 +525 +155 +520 +1000
Thu (11/24) @ 4:35pm ET NY Giants +300 +2500 +3300 +1200 +3500 0
DAL Cowboys -370 0 -10000 -3333 0 0
Thu (11/24) @ 8:23pm ET NE Patriots +135 +2500 +1700 +3000 +125 +2500 0
MIN Vikings -161 0 -10000 0 -141 0 0
Sun (11/27) @ 1:00pm ET TB Buccaneers -164 +300 +1100 +270 -167 +360 +375
CLE Browns +140 -400 -5000 -345 +147 -526 -556
Sun (11/27) @ 1:00pm ET ATL Falcons +155 +2500 +3300 +2000 +165 -156 +5000
WAS Commanders -185 0 -10000 -5000 -189 +122 0
Sun (11/27) @ 1:02pm ET CIN Bengals -120 -1000 -10000 -1111 -1667 -1667
TEN Titans +100 +650 +3300 +650 +800 +850
Sun (11/27) @ 1:02pm ET DEN Broncos -141 +2500 +3300 +1100 +2500 +4500
CAR Panthers +115 0 -10000 -2500 0 0
Sun (11/27) @ 1:02pm ET CHI Bears +200 +800 +3300 +2800 +6500 +9000
NY Jets -250 -1429 -10000 -10000 0 0
Sun (11/27) @ 1:03pm ET HOU Texans +425 +1600 +3300 +2000 +1500 +1700
MIA Dolphins -588 -10000 -10000 -5000 -10000 -5000
Sun (11/27) @ 1:27pm ET BAL Ravens -200 +210 +150 +475 -161 -141 -141
JAX Jaguars +165 -263 -200 -714 +140 +110 +120
Sun (11/27) @ 4:04pm ET LV Raiders +165 -149 -145 -141 +182 -233 0
SEA Seahawks -200 +120 +110 +110 -208 +176 0
Sun (11/27) @ 4:05pm ET LA Chargers -154 -10000 -115 -10000 -143 +106 -3333
ARI Cardinals +130 +2200 -110 +2800 +125 -135 +1300
Sun (11/27) @ 4:24pm ET NO Saints +300 +1400 +1250 +1000 +325 +5500 +4500
SF 49ers -370 -5000 -5000 -2000 -385 0 0
Sun (11/27) @ 4:25pm ET LA Rams +750 +1700 +3300 +1600 +800 +1700 +6600
KC Chiefs -1250 -10000 -10000 -5000 -1111 -10000 0
Sun (11/27) @ 8:22pm ET GB Packers +240 +2500 +1900 +4000 +2500 0
PHI Eagles -303 0 -10000 0 0 0
Mon (11/28) @ 8:14pm ET PIT Steelers +125 -769 -10000 -10000 +120 -1250 -1250
IND Colts -149 +520 +3300 +2500 -137 +630 +700
Thu (11/24) @ 12:34pm ET BUF Bills -9.0 -110 -2.5 -1250 -1.5 -110 -3.0 -120 -2.5 -370 -3.0 +135
DET Lions +9.0 -110 +2.5 +700 +1.5 -120 +3.0 -110 +2.5 +260 +3.0 -161
Thu (11/24) @ 4:35pm ET NY Giants +8.0 -110 +11.5 -130 +14.5 +150 +8.0 +525 +14.5 +630 +15.5 -179
DAL Cowboys -8.0 -110 -11.5 +100 -14.5 -208 -8.0 -833 -14.5 -1250 -15.5 +150
Thu (11/24) @ 8:23pm ET NE Patriots +3.0 -115 +6.5 -110 +4.5 +3300 +6.5 +110 +2.5 -106 +3.5 -114 +4.0 -110
MIN Vikings -3.0 -105 -6.5 -120 -4.5 -10000 -6.5 -141 -2.5 -115 -3.5 -115 -4.0 -105
Sun (11/27) @ 1:00pm ET TB Buccaneers -3.0 -110 -6.5 -250 -7.5 +170 -6.5 -200 -3.5 -108 -8.5 -114 -7.0 -175
CLE Browns +3.0 -110 +6.5 +200 +7.5 -227 +6.5 +165 +3.5 -114 +8.5 -114 +7.0 +145
Sun (11/27) @ 1:00pm ET ATL Falcons +3.0 -105 +5.5 +160 +5.5 +240 +5.5 +105 +3.5 -108 +6.5 -179 +6.0 -130
WAS Commanders -3.0 -115 -5.5 -196 -5.5 -345 -5.5 -135 -3.5 -114 -6.5 +136 -6.0 +110
Sun (11/27) @ 1:02pm ET CIN Bengals -1.5 -105 -3.5 +125 -4.5 -145 -4.5 +210 -3.5 -278 -4.0 +140
TEN Titans +1.5 -115 +3.5 -154 +4.5 +110 +4.5 -263 +3.5 +205 +4.0 -169
Sun (11/27) @ 1:02pm ET DEN Broncos -2.5 -110 +12.5 +1500 +13.5 -370 +13.0 +450 +13.5 -455 +13.5 -370
CAR Panthers +2.5 -110 -12.5 -5000 -13.5 +270 -13.0 -667 -13.5 +305 -13.5 +300
Sun (11/27) @ 1:02pm ET CHI Bears +5.5 -110 +20.5 +440 +20.5 +250 +21.5 -556 +14.5 -110 +21.0 +130
NY Jets -5.5 -110 -20.5 -625 -20.5 -345 -21.5 +400 -14.5 -118 -21.0 -149
Sun (11/27) @ 1:03pm ET HOU Texans +11.5 -110 +14.5 +200 +14.5 +950 +11.5 +195 +14.5 +150 +15.0 -303
MIA Dolphins -11.5 -110 -14.5 -250 -14.5 -2500 -11.5 -238 -14.5 -196 -15.0 +240
Sun (11/27) @ 1:27pm ET BAL Ravens -3.5 -110 -8.5 -105 -7.5 -110 -5.5 -141 -3.5 -106 -6.5 +110 +0.5 +100
JAX Jaguars +3.5 -110 +8.5 -125 +7.5 -120 +5.5 +110 +3.5 -115 +6.5 -145 -0.5 -115
Sun (11/27) @ 4:04pm ET LV Raiders +3.5 -105 +3.5 -130 +6.5 +150 +3.5 -149 +4.0 -112 +6.5 +168 +1.5 0
SEA Seahawks -3.5 -115 -3.5 +100 -6.5 -200 -3.5 +120 -4.0 -109 -6.5 -227 -1.5 0
Sun (11/27) @ 4:05pm ET LA Chargers -3.0 +100 +6.5 -125 +7.5 -175 -1.0 +225 -2.5 -118 +7.5 -161 +7.5 0
ARI Cardinals +3.0 -120 -6.5 -105 -7.5 +135 +1.0 -278 +2.5 -105 -7.5 +122 -7.5 0
Sun (11/27) @ 4:24pm ET NO Saints +8.5 -115 +12.5 +350 +13.5 -10000 +13.0 +300 +9.0 -112 +13.5 -400 +13.0 -208
SF 49ers -8.5 -105 -12.5 -476 -13.5 +3300 -13.0 -400 -9.0 -109 -13.5 +275 -13.0 +175
Sun (11/27) @ 4:25pm ET LA Rams +14.5 -110 +15.5 +1000 +15.5 +1100 +16.0 -714 +16.5 -114 +15.5 +900 +16.0 0
KC Chiefs -14.5 -110 -15.5 -2000 -15.5 -5000 -16.0 +475 -16.5 -108 -15.5 -2500 -16.0 0
Sun (11/27) @ 8:22pm ET GB Packers +7.0 -105 +7.5 -149 +6.5 +190 +7.0 +340 +14.5 -147 +9.0 -108
PHI Eagles -7.0 -115 -7.5 +120 -6.5 -250 -7.0 -455 -14.5 +112 -9.0 -108
Mon (11/28) @ 8:14pm ET PIT Steelers +2.5 -105 -2.5 +105 -6.5 -345 -6.5 -278 +2.5 -109 -6.5 -357 -7.0 +165
IND Colts -2.5 -115 +2.5 -135 +6.5 +250 +6.5 +225 -2.5 -112 +6.5 +255 +7.0 -200
Thu (11/24) @ 12:34pm ET BUF Bills o52.5 -110 o53.5 +490 o50.5 -105 o49.5 -120 o47.5 +105
DET Lions u52.5 -110 u53.5 -714 u50.5 -120 u49.5 -108 u47.5 -120
Thu (11/24) @ 4:35pm ET NY Giants u43.5 -110 u47.5 -135 u47.5 +145 u47.5 -125 u43.5 +105
DAL Cowboys o43.5 -110 o47.5 +105 o47.5 -189 o47.5 -104 o43.5 -120
Thu (11/24) @ 8:23pm ET NE Patriots u42.5 -110 u68.5 -105 u68.5 -115 u42.0 -110 u67.5 -102 u66 -108
MIN Vikings o42.5 -110 o68.5 -125 o68.5 -115 o42.0 -110 o67.5 -128 o66 -108
Sun (11/27) @ 1:00pm ET TB Buccaneers u44.5 -115 u32.5 -115 u30.5 -125 u42 -110 u42.0 -109 u33.5 +102 u30.5 -108
CLE Browns o44.5 -105 o32.5 -115 o30.5 -105 o42 -110 o42.0 -112 o33.5 -132 o30.5 -108
Sun (11/27) @ 1:00pm ET ATL Falcons o42.5 -115 o35.5 +105 o33.5 -110 o40 -110 o40.5 -108 o37.5 -147 o34.5 -115
WAS Commanders u42.5 -105 u35.5 -135 u33.5 -120 u40 -110 u40.5 -114 u37.5 +112 u34.5 +100
Sun (11/27) @ 1:02pm ET CIN Bengals o42.5 -115 o39.5 +110 o38.5 -145 o36.5 -114 o38.5 -115
TEN Titans u42.5 -105 u39.5 -141 u38.5 +115 u36.5 -114 u38.5 +100
Sun (11/27) @ 1:02pm ET DEN Broncos u34.5 -105 u33.5 -286 u32.5 +165 u29.5 +100 u33.5 -278
CAR Panthers o34.5 -115 o33.5 +225 o32.5 -227 o29.5 -130 o33.5 +230
Sun (11/27) @ 1:02pm ET CHI Bears o43 -110 o46.5 -120 o47.5 -125 o47.5 -132 o41.5 +350
NY Jets u43 -110 u46.5 -110 u47.5 -105 u47.5 +102 u41.5 -455
Sun (11/27) @ 1:03pm ET HOU Texans o45.5 -110 o49.5 +130 o45.5 +775 o49.5 -110 o48.5 +100
MIA Dolphins u45.5 -110 u49.5 -161 u45.5 -1429 u49.5 -118 u48.5 -115
Sun (11/27) @ 1:27pm ET BAL Ravens o45.5 -110 o36.5 -110 o36.5 +110 o43.0 -114 o38.5 -141 o42 -130
JAX Jaguars u45.5 -110 u36.5 -120 u36.5 -135 u43.0 -108 u38.5 +108 u42 +110
Sun (11/27) @ 4:04pm ET LV Raiders o47.5 -110 o63.5 -110 o65.5 -120 o47.5 -109 o61.5 +108 o71 0
SEA Seahawks u47.5 -110 u63.5 -120 u65.5 -105 u47.5 -112 u61.5 -141 u71 0
Sun (11/27) @ 4:05pm ET LA Chargers u47.5 -110 u53.5 +100 u49.5 -110 u48.5 -109 u50.5 -114 u50.5 0
ARI Cardinals o47.5 -110 o53.5 -130 o49.5 -120 o48.5 -112 o50.5 -115 o50.5 0
Sun (11/27) @ 4:24pm ET NO Saints o42.5 -105 o20.5 +105 o19.5 -120 o43.5 -110 o43.5 -112 o20.5 +122 o13.5 +120
SF 49ers u42.5 -115 u20.5 -135 u19.5 +100 u43.5 -110 u43.5 -109 u20.5 -161 u13.5 -141
Sun (11/27) @ 4:25pm ET LA Rams u44 -110 u39.5 -110 u36.5 -110 u41.5 -112 u40.5 -141 u37.5 0
KC Chiefs o44 -110 o39.5 -120 o36.5 -115 o41.5 -109 o40.5 +108 o37.5 0
Sun (11/27) @ 8:22pm ET GB Packers o45.5 -110 o72.5 -125 o71.5 -130 o67.5 +142 o73.5 -125
PHI Eagles u45.5 -110 u72.5 -105 u71.5 +100 u67.5 -189 u73.5 +110
Mon (11/28) @ 8:14pm ET PIT Steelers u39.5 -110 u43.5 -115 u44.5 -110 u39.5 -110 u39.5 -110 u44.5 -115 u44 -108
IND Colts o39.5 -110 o43.5 -115 o44.5 -110 o39.5 -110 o39.5 -110 o44.5 -114 o44 -108
About the Author
Dave Bontempo

Dave Bontempo

Dave Bontempo is a multiple award-winning writer and broadcaster, who has covered the sports industry since the 1970’s. He won the Sam Taub Award for Excellence in Boxing Broadcasting by the Boxing Writers Association of America in 1997, and is in the New Jersey and Atlantic City Boxing Halls of Fame. He has broadcast major fights all over the world. The advent of legalized sports wagering shifted his focus to this exciting new industry in 2018.

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