NFL Betting Trends, Week 16: QB Injuries, Weather Figure Into Early Line Moves

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Gamblers face several unique variables as they handicap the NFL Week 16 betting card.

Frigid temperatures, uncertain status for Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson, relative parity for point spreads, and the year’s largest Saturday slate greet bettors. Here are current NFL Week 16 odds, followed by a look at early betting trends from top US sportsbooks.

Bet TypeSpreads
Open
Thu (12/21) @ 8:16pm ET NO Saints +165 +2500 +1850 +6000 +160 +3000 +1300
LA Rams -200 -10000 -10000 0 -200 0 -10000
Sat (12/23) @ 4:31pm ET CIN Bengals -141 +4000 +3300 +2500 -152 +1100 +2500
PIT Steelers +115 0 -10000 -10000 +125 -5000 -10000
Sat (12/23) @ 8:05pm ET BUF Bills -909 0 -1429 -1250 -1429 -1429
LA Chargers +600 +4000 +700 +670 +680 +700
Sun (12/24) @ 1:01pm ET IND Colts -125 +1800 +3300 +1200 +132 +1500 +8000
ATL Falcons +105 -5000 -10000 -5000 -159 -10000 0
Sun (12/24) @ 1:01pm ET DET Lions -185 -200 -400 -500 -147 -370 0
MIN Vikings +150 +154 +300 +350 +120 +265 0
Sun (12/24) @ 1:01pm ET SEA Seahawks -145 -2000 -3333 -345 -159 -1667 -1429
TEN Titans +120 +1000 +1050 +260 +132 +800 +850
Sun (12/24) @ 1:02pm ET WAS Commanders +135 -244 +110 +115 +132 +132 +160
NY Jets -161 +185 -145 -145 -159 -169 -227
Sun (12/24) @ 1:04pm ET CLE Browns +115 0 -10000 -3333 -10000 0
HOU Texans -141 +4000 +3300 +1100 +1700 +10000
Sun (12/24) @ 1:05pm ET GB Packers -208 -1111 -2000 -10000 -196 -5000 -1250
CAR Panthers +170 +650 +900 +2200 +160 +1400 +700
Sun (12/24) @ 4:06pm ET JAX Jaguars -135 +4000 +3300 +850 -128 +1300 +4000
TB Buccaneers +110 0 -10000 -1667 +104 -5000 0
Sun (12/24) @ 4:26pm ET ARI Cardinals +165 +2000 +3300 +900 +170 +3000 +9000
CHI Bears -200 -10000 -10000 -2000 -208 0 0
Sun (12/24) @ 4:26pm ET DAL Cowboys +105 +1800 +1400 +1800 +108 +2500 +1300
MIA Dolphins -125 -5000 -10000 -5000 -133 0 -3333
Sun (12/24) @ 8:17pm ET NE Patriots +200 0 -714 0 +265 0 0
DEN Broncos -250 +4000 +475 +3500 -345 +5500 0
Mon (12/25) @ 1:05pm ET LV Raiders +375 -3333 -10000 -10000 +425 0 -5000
KC Chiefs -500 +1400 +1500 +2200 -588 +2500 +1400
Mon (12/25) @ 4:35pm ET NY Giants +400 +2500 +1200 +1400 +1400 +2500
PHI Eagles -556 -10000 -5000 -5000 -5000 0
Mon (12/25) @ 8:16pm ET BAL Ravens +180 -5000 -10000 -2000 +230 0 -10000
SF 49ers -227 +1500 +1300 +900 -294 +3500 +1500
Thu (12/21) @ 8:16pm ET NO Saints +19.5 -115 +8.5 -526 +16.5 -227 +8.5 -238 +4.0 -110 +7.5 +500 +8.5 0
LA Rams -19.5 -115 -8.5 +360 -16.5 +165 -8.5 +185 -4.0 -110 -7.5 -909 -8.5 0
Sat (12/23) @ 4:31pm ET CIN Bengals +16.5 -115 +22.5 +290 +22.5 +300 +22.5 +320 -2.5 -114 +22.5 +415 +22.5 +230
PIT Steelers -16.5 -115 -22.5 -417 -22.5 -455 -22.5 -455 +2.5 -108 -22.5 -667 -22.5 -303
Sat (12/23) @ 8:05pm ET BUF Bills -13.5 -110 -2.5 +165 -2.5 +160 -4.5 -141 -4.5 -189 -2.0 0
LA Chargers +13.5 -110 +2.5 -213 +2.5 -208 +4.5 +110 +4.5 +142 +2.0 0
Sun (12/24) @ 1:01pm ET IND Colts -2.0 -110 +18.5 +325 +18.5 +525 +18.5 +500 +2.5 -103 +18.5 +245 +19.0 0
ATL Falcons +2.0 -110 -18.5 -476 -18.5 -1000 -18.5 -833 -2.5 -120 -18.5 -345 -19.0 0
Sun (12/24) @ 1:01pm ET DET Lions -3.0 -110 -6.5 +280 -6.5 +155 -6.5 +175 -3.0 -104 -8.5 -141 -6.5 +250
MIN Vikings +3.0 -110 +6.5 -400 +6.5 -208 +6.5 -222 +3.0 -118 +8.5 +108 +6.5 -345
Sun (12/24) @ 1:01pm ET SEA Seahawks -2.5 -110 +3.5 +260 -2.5 -2500 -2.5 -161 -3.0 -110 +3.5 +265 +4.0 0
TEN Titans +2.5 -110 -3.5 -357 +2.5 +825 +2.5 +125 +3.0 -110 -3.5 -385 -4.0 0
Sun (12/24) @ 1:02pm ET WAS Commanders +3.0 -110 +1.5 -105 +1.5 -115 +6.5 -189 +3.0 -118 +5.5 +165 -1.0 -105
NY Jets -3.0 -110 -1.5 -125 -1.5 -110 -6.5 +150 -3.0 -104 -5.5 -222 +1.0 -120
Sun (12/24) @ 1:02pm ET CLE Browns +2.5 -110 -11.5 -1111 -13.5 -1000 -15.0 +5000 -13.5 -909 -14.0 -149
HOU Texans -2.5 -110 +11.5 +650 +13.5 +550 +15.0 0 +13.5 +530 +14.0 +120
Sun (12/24) @ 1:05pm ET GB Packers -4.0 -110 -2.5 -370 -7.5 +155 -8.5 +180 -3.5 -112 -8.5 +175 -7.5 -175
CAR Panthers +4.0 -110 +2.5 +270 +7.5 -208 +8.5 -233 +3.5 -109 +8.5 -233 +7.5 +140
Sun (12/24) @ 4:06pm ET JAX Jaguars -2.0 -110 +18.5 -189 +18.5 -189 +18.0 +2500 -2.0 -110 +17.5 +320 +18.5 0
TB Buccaneers +2.0 -110 -18.5 +145 -18.5 +145 -18.0 -10000 +2.0 -110 -17.5 -476 -18.5 0
Sun (12/24) @ 4:26pm ET ARI Cardinals +4.5 -110 +10.5 +400 +10.5 +170 +10.5 +1100 +5.0 -118 +10.5 +325 +10.5 +120
CHI Bears -4.5 -110 -10.5 -625 -10.5 -227 -10.5 -3333 -5.0 -104 -10.5 -476 -10.5 -149
Sun (12/24) @ 4:26pm ET DAL Cowboys +1.5 -110 +2.5 +100 +2.5 -1429 +4.5 -115 +1.0 -106 +5.5 -108 +5.5 -120
MIA Dolphins -1.5 -110 -2.5 -130 -2.5 +650 -4.5 -115 -1.0 -115 -5.5 -120 -5.5 -105
Sun (12/24) @ 8:17pm ET NE Patriots +5.5 -110 -2.5 -120 -6.5 -141 -4.5 -125 +7.0 -104 -5.5 +102 -4.5 -120
DEN Broncos -5.5 -110 +2.5 -110 +6.5 +105 +4.5 -105 -7.0 -118 +5.5 -132 +4.5 -105
Mon (12/25) @ 1:05pm ET LV Raiders +10.0 -110 -6.5 +170 -6.5 +170 -12.5 -141 +11.0 -110 -11.5 -114 -10.0 -112
KC Chiefs -10.0 -110 +6.5 -222 +6.5 -227 +12.5 +110 -11.0 -110 +11.5 -114 +10.0 -112
Mon (12/25) @ 4:35pm ET NY Giants +10.5 -110 +12.5 -278 +11.5 +185 +12.5 -263 +11.5 +235 +11.5 +135
PHI Eagles -10.5 -110 -12.5 +210 -11.5 -250 -12.5 +200 -11.5 -333 -11.5 -169
Mon (12/25) @ 8:16pm ET BAL Ravens +5.0 -110 -12.5 -115 -7.5 +160 -7.5 +230 +6.5 -110 -9.5 -130 -10.5 -112
SF 49ers -5.0 -110 +12.5 -115 +7.5 -227 +7.5 -303 -6.5 -110 +9.5 +100 +10.5 -112
Thu (12/21) @ 8:16pm ET NO Saints u44.5 -110 u52.5 -200 u46.5 +105 u45.5 -110 u45.5 -114 u46.5 +100 u47.5 0
LA Rams o44.5 -110 o52.5 +154 o46.5 -141 o45.5 -110 o45.5 -108 o46.5 -130 o47.5 0
Sat (12/23) @ 4:31pm ET CIN Bengals o38.5 -110 o47.5 -135 o45.5 +400 o39.5 -110 o39.0 -109 o50.5 -122 o45.5 +220
PIT Steelers u38.5 -110 u47.5 +105 u45.5 -667 u39.5 -110 u39.0 -112 u50.5 -106 u45.5 -294
Sat (12/23) @ 8:05pm ET BUF Bills o42.5 -110 o44.5 -120 o44.5 +110 o43.5 -141 o48.5 0
LA Chargers u42.5 -110 u44.5 -110 u44.5 -145 u43.5 +108 u48.5 0
Sun (12/24) @ 1:01pm ET IND Colts u44.5 -115 u39.5 -125 u41.5 -110 u44 -110 u44.5 -110 u39.5 +126 u42.5 0
ATL Falcons o44.5 -105 o39.5 -105 o41.5 -120 o44 -110 o44.5 -110 o39.5 -164 o42.5 0
Sun (12/24) @ 1:01pm ET DET Lions o46.5 -115 o54.5 +170 o57.5 -145 o48 -110 o47.5 -112 o57.5 -132 o54.5 +165
MIN Vikings u46.5 -105 u54.5 -222 u57.5 +110 u48 -110 u47.5 -109 u57.5 +102 u54.5 -208
Sun (12/24) @ 1:01pm ET SEA Seahawks o42.5 -110 o30.5 -110 o39.5 +475 o42.5 -110 o42.0 -109 o32.5 -130 o30.5 0
TEN Titans u42.5 -110 u30.5 -120 u39.5 -833 u42.5 -110 u42.0 -112 u32.5 +100 u30.5 0
Sun (12/24) @ 1:02pm ET WAS Commanders u37.5 -105 u54.5 -125 u57.5 -105 u36 -110 u36.5 -109 u57.5 +108 u57.5 +120
NY Jets o37.5 -115 o54.5 -105 o57.5 -125 o36 -110 o36.5 -112 o57.5 -141 o57.5 -149
Sun (12/24) @ 1:05pm ET GB Packers u36.5 -110 u63.5 -208 u56.5 -125 u39.5 -110 u39.5 -110 u55.5 -139 u55.5 -130
CAR Panthers o36.5 -110 o63.5 +160 o56.5 -105 o39.5 -110 o39.5 -110 o55.5 +106 o55.5 +105
Sun (12/24) @ 4:06pm ET JAX Jaguars o45 -110 o42.5 +100 o41.5 -145 o43 -110 o43.5 -108 o43.5 -102 o44.5 0
TB Buccaneers u45 -110 u42.5 -130 u41.5 +110 u43 -110 u43.5 -114 u43.5 -128 u44.5 0
Sun (12/24) @ 4:26pm ET ARI Cardinals o44.5 -110 o40.5 -141 o40.5 -164 o42 -110 o42.5 -108 o41.5 +134 o43 0
CHI Bears u44.5 -110 u40.5 +110 u40.5 +125 u42 -110 u42.5 -114 u41.5 -175 u43 0
Sun (12/24) @ 4:26pm ET DAL Cowboys o51 -110 o41.5 -141 o42.5 +625 o48.5 -110 o48.5 -112 o39.5 -102 o40.5 -112
MIA Dolphins u51 -110 u41.5 +110 u42.5 -1250 u48.5 -110 u48.5 -109 u39.5 -128 u40.5 -112
Sun (12/24) @ 8:17pm ET NE Patriots u36.5 -110 u49.5 -278 u40.5 -130 u37.5 -110 u37.0 -110 u43.5 -102 u44 -120
DEN Broncos o36.5 -110 o49.5 +210 o40.5 +100 o37.5 -110 o37.0 -110 o43.5 -128 o44 -105
Mon (12/25) @ 1:05pm ET LV Raiders u43 -110 u34.5 -167 u33.5 -115 u40 -110 u40.5 -112 u33.5 -106 u33.5 +100
KC Chiefs o43 -110 o34.5 +130 o33.5 -115 o40 -110 o40.5 -109 o33.5 -122 o33.5 -125
Mon (12/25) @ 4:35pm ET NY Giants o43.5 -110 o50.5 -141 o50.5 -120 o50.5 -115 o54.5 -112
PHI Eagles u43.5 -110 u50.5 +110 u50.5 -110 u50.5 -114 u54.5 -112
Mon (12/25) @ 8:16pm ET BAL Ravens o45.5 -110 o58.5 -110 o56.5 -110 o47 -110 o47.0 -112 o58.5 -147 o58.5 -141
SF 49ers u45.5 -110 u58.5 -120 u56.5 -115 u47 -110 u47.0 -109 u58.5 +112 u58.5 +110

Hurts Status Impacts Eagles vs. Cowboys Betting Line

Bettors are following news regarding Hurts, as the line of Philadelphia +4.5 against the host Dallas Cowboys reflects the belief Hurts will rest his strained shoulder. As Hurts news broke Monday afternoon, the line jumped from Dallas -1 to -6, before inching back at DraftKings.

Gardner Minshew will replace Hurts if he can’t go. Hurts hasn’t been ruled out, so that line will tumble back inside a field goal if he starts.

nfl week 16 betting trends, eagles qb hurts minshew
Whether its Gardner Minshew or Jalen Hurts at QB for the Eagles is impacting the Eagles vs. Cowboys line in NFL Week 16 (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)

Hurts fed the speculation frenzy Tuesday, saying there’s a chance he could play. Whether Hurts is following the team party line to make Dallas prepare for two quarterbacks, or whether he is simply young and resilient remains to be seen.

Logic suggests that Hurts, who is more of a team leader than he’s credited for, should nonetheless sit. Emotion on Hurts’ part may be a different story.

Bettors who took Dallas -1 before the Hurts development obtained excellent value, a premium of several points.

In related Hurts news, DraftKings substantially moved his MVP line from -140 chalk to +425, installing Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs as the new -330 favorite.

If an MVP candidate misses a game now, kiss the award goodbye.

The 13-1 Eagles can afford to rest Hurts. They can practically waltz to the NFC No. 1 seed, home field throughout the playoffs and a first-round bye. They need Hurts ready for the post-season.

Related: NFL MVP odds | Odds to make NFL Playoffs

Betting Market Expects Lamar Jackson Back for Ravens

If the Eagles needed to string wins, Hurts might be cajoled to play.

And that could be the case for Jackson.

His expected return from a knee injury is incorporated into the line of Baltimore -7.5 against the Atlanta Falcons. The 9-5 Ravens need a victory to stay near the Cincinnati Bengals, whom they play in the final week, for AFC North honors.

Bettors received mixed signals Tuesday, when Jackson missed practice. If he can’t go, Tyler Huntley will likely start.

Atlanta will start Desmond Ridder, who looked lost until the second half last week. He helped Atlanta notch two second-half touchdowns and a cover at +4.5 in a 21-18 loss to the New Orleans Saints. A key to this game will be running backs Tyler Allgeier of Atlanta and J.K. Dobbins for Atlanta.

NFL Point Spreads Tighten Up

As Wednesday dawned, there were no double-digit point spreads for Week 16. That’s a rare occurrence, especially in light of the Houston Texans receiving 17 points from the Cowboys and 14.5 from the Kansas City Chiefs in consecutive weeks. The Texans covered both games and nearly won them on the moneyline.

As the 11-3 Chiefs chase the AFC top seed, point spreads do them no favors. Kansas City is 2-5 against the number the last seven weeks, both victories coming by half a point, and has lost three straight against the spread. Bettors have nonetheless linked the Chiefs to moneyline parlays, with KC going 6-1 over that time.

A betting line of -9 or -9.5 is still a lot against the Seattle Seahawks, but not the -14.5 from last week.

Who will lift the trophy? Odds to win Super Bowl 57

Weather Factoring In Over/Under Totals

Bettors must account for cold and winds this weekend, “weather” they like it or not.

DraftKings posted a season-high seven totals under 40. This reflects conditions that make passes hard to catch and throw.
Winds of 15 mph or higher usually coincide with low-scoring games, especially for stadiums near the water in Cleveland and Pittsburgh.

Here is a list of the low-total games. Many coaxed divided over-under handle, with some exceptions.

Games with fairly-even percentages:

  • The Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets launch the schedule with a 38 total Thursday. Yes, this is the same Jags team that just returned +2200 to FanDuel bettors for being the highest-scoring team of the week, 40, against the Cowboys. That 40-34 victory generated 74 points. This is expected to hit roughly half.

More on this matchup: Jaguars vs. Jets odds, injuries, predictions | TNF props and TD scorers

  • The New Orleans Saints and host Cleveland Browns feature the lowest total, 32 points. If the number holds, it will be the lowest total for an NFL game since the Bills’ 30-7 home win over the Colts stayed Under 32 on Jan. 3, 2010.  In similar conditions last week, the Browns outlasted the Baltimore Ravens 13-3.
  • The total is up to 36.5 points for the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Rams, two teams who struggle to score even in balmy conditions.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders and host Pittsburgh Steelers have a total of 39.

How Totals are Trending in Early Week 16 Wagering

The public was more definitive on three other games with the first released figures.

  • The highest Under backing is 85% handle for the Texans and Tennessee Titans to finish Under 37.
  • A large majority, 79% handle, pegs the Washington Commanders and San Francisco 49ers Under 39.
  • Nearly three-quarters of the handle, 74%, rests with the Falcons-Ravens to stay under 37.5.

Tickets Versus Handle Highlights

Some games feature a big difference of opinion among small and larger bettors.

  • The San Francisco-Washington Under began with 38% tickets, but 79% of the handle. That 41% swing was the biggest difference on the board.
  • Another substantial split came in the Lions-Panthers, in which 89% of the original bets but only 51% of the handle went on the Lions -3.
  • Another big one concerns the Saints (+2.5), who had only 35% of the spread tickets but 65% of the handle against the Browns.

How The Public Sees Prominent Teams

  • The Bengals (-3.5), who have covered six straight and assume first place in the AFC North, obtained 77% of the early spread handle against the host Patriots.
  • The 49ers, with five consecutive covers, earned a lofty 89% of the spread handle at -7 against the desperate Commanders.
  • Bettors also backed the ice-cold Buccaneers, who lead the AFC South in spite of themselves. The 6-8 Bucs, “ruling” the division roost, gained 93% of the handle at -6.5 against the visiting Cardinals.

Line movesNFL Week 16 odds

Lessons to Carry Forward

Bettors enjoyed some monumental moments from Week 15. Even those with modest bankrolls can glean something from a fantastic DraftKings payout.

Johnny Avello, director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, told Gaming Today that a bettor wagered $31,000 in-game to win $2.8 million on a courageous call.

“The player started off with the Minnesota Vikings in-game at +700, when they were still down two touchdowns,” he noted about Minnesota, down 33-0 at halftime (and priced +4000), launching the biggest comeback in NFL history to beat the Indianapolis Colts 39-36 in overtime.

“The next leg was Miami plus seven against the Buffalo Bills,” he added of Miami’s 32-29, road-covering setback. “And then it was the Browns -2.5 (in their 13-3 win over the Ravens), the Jacksonville Jaguars on the moneyline (over the Cowboys ) and the Las Vegas Raiders on the moneyline (versus the Patriots).”

Wow.

The Jags overcame a 27-10 third-quarter deficit to beat the Cowboys in overtime. The Raiders were down to their final play, 4th-and-10 deep in their territory, before notching an improbable set of circumstances to defeat the Patriots on the last play of the game.

Five legs. Three selections looked absolutely dead. And yet a seemingly-impossible collection went in the bank.

Avello said there are millions of NFL bets placed weekly at DraftKings, and gamblers should not be misled into thinking random big-money risks are likely to come out in the players’ favor.

But they point to a concept.

“This kind of payoff gives people a lot of confidence,” he said. “Most people can’t gamble that kind of money, but seeing the bet come out gives them hope that something similar can happen for them on these $10 same-game parlays. They pay pretty well, too.”

Yes, one bettor turned $10 into more than $60,000 last week on a multi-legged parlay involving the Eagles and Giants. The clinching portion illustrated both the razor-thin margin of the collection and the need for responsible wagering. A.J. Brown of the Eagles needed 69.5 yards to bring home the bet. He notched 70, just half a yard more than needed.

That’s a titanic sweat on a $10 bet, let alone one for several thousand.

BetMGM Nuggets

BetMGM offered a couple early prop bets for the Jets-Jaguars.

Trevor Lawrence to throw for more than 220 yards, at least two touchdowns and the Jags to win is +360.

Garrett Wilson and Travis Etienne to each score and the total to go over 39 is a nice +775. Bettors would love the luxury of seeing an early tally from each and then rooting for everyone on both teams to score.

Bet the NFL at DraftKings Sportsbook

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About the Author
Dave Bontempo

Dave Bontempo

Writer
Dave Bontempo is an award-winning writer and broadcaster, who has covered the sports industry since the 1970s. He won the Sam Taub Award for Excellence in Boxing Broadcasting by the Boxing Writers Association of America in 1997, and is in the New Jersey and Atlantic City Boxing Halls of Fame. Bontempo has broadcast major fights all over the world. The advent of legalized sports wagering shifted his focus to this exciting new industry in 2018.

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