Who says you can’t middle the weather?
Projected heavy winds in Buffalo present a rare opportunity for early-bird bettors of the Bills-Pittsburgh Steelers NFL playoff game. Gamblers might be able to play both sides of a game impacted by changing weather forecasts.
Can you play the Over and then the Under, expecting to hit both? The answer, my friends, is blowing in the wind, and headlines our NFL betting trends for Wild Card round.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills Betting Analysis
Heavy winds of 20-25 mph plunged the first posted total from 43 to the neighborhood of 35-36 at the top sports betting apps.
Gamblers who took the Under 43 three days ago might now add an Over 35 and hope this game total fits in the middle.
Other bettors may be more conventional. The Under still has 65% of the handle at DraftKings as bettors favor the elements.
Those who did not get in early and simply view this as a straight bet agree on how difficult wind makes the conditions.
It has a dramatic effect on the kicking game, making field goals and extra points hard to gain. Bad weather also sets up a field-position game in which teams look to exploit a mistake. That’s the signature of an Under.
The matchup will feature Pittsburgh’s running game of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren against a Bills team that relies on the legs of Josh Allen, and receivers Gabe Davis, Dalton Kincaid, and Stefon Diggs. It will be interesting to see whether it’s a crosswind that makes everything treacherous or a definitive breeze that gives each team a big advantage in two quarters.
Anything over 15 mph is enough to impact the game.
Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs Betting Trends
Betting Line: Kansas City -4.5 (Best Live Odds: )
Betting Sentiment: Kansas City 72% handle (DraftKings)
Temperatures could be near zero with a wind chill of 10-20 mph, making this one of the coldest games in NFL history.
The key is whether this is simply cold or windy and cold.
The Chiefs have a perceived advantage playing in their element against the team playing in the league’s warmest climate. But it should be noted that Tua Tagovailoa played a strong cold-weather game in Buffalo last year and Tyreek Hill, his top weapon, once played for the Chiefs.
Both offenses have recently struggled.
For what it’s worth, the Chiefs toppled Miami 21-14 earlier this year in Germany.
Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys Betting Trends
Betting Line: Dallas -7.5 (Best Live Odds: )
Betting Sentiment: Dallas 71% handle (FanDuel)
How ‘BOUT them Cowboys at home?
The ‘Boys notched the only home unbeaten streak this year. Dallas also led the entire NFL with 509 points.
Dallas has appeared to be on a mission during the second half of the season, while the Packers finally got untracked, won their last three games, and squirmed into the postseason.
This became the second game to reach 50 on the total, joining the Detroit Lions-Los Angeles Rams (51.5) in the category of expected fireworks.
Bettors will be all over CeeDee Lamb as a first and anytime touchdown threat for Dallas. Jake Ferguson would return a mid-priced payout to score first for the Cowboys. Ferguson has been a strong tight end all season for Dallas.
Lamb had a prolific 1,749 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Brandin Cooks added eight touchdowns.
Ferguson had 102 targets, second on the team to Lamb.
Green Bay has lived by the acrobatics of Jordan Love, who delivered 32 touchdowns against only 11 picks. The Packers miss their best receiver Christian Watson, and bettors will try to see if Jaylen Reed and Romeo Doubs can step up. They each had eight touchdowns.
The Pack were 9-8.
It’s another homecoming and rivalry game as Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy goes against the team that once fired him.
Read more: Packers vs Cowboys anytime TD scorer bets
Philadelphia Eagles vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Trends
Betting Line: Philadelphia -3 (Best Live Odds: )
Betting Sentiment: Philadelphia 67% handle (DraftKings)
Bettors favor distant history over recent history.
FanDuel gamblers continue to back Philly even after this game was pushed up from -2.5 to -3.
One can see the embracing numbers like Philadelphia’s 18-8 road mark since 2021, second best in the NFL to the Kansas City Chiefs (18-7). Or the fact that AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith each cleared 1,000 receiving yards for the second straight season. They became the first duo in team history to do it last year.
And the Eagles did start 10-1, whipping Tampa Bay 25-11 right in this stadium in Week 3.
But that was then.
What would it be like for Philadelphia to cover? A rare phenomenon.
The Eagles haven’t beaten the number since they topped the Kansas City Chiefs 21-17 on Nov. 20. Since then, they are 0-7 ATS and 2-5 ML.
And these weren’t close. Philly was bombed 42-19 by the San Francisco 49ers, 33-13 by the Dallas Cowboys, and 27-10 by the New York Giants. They coughed up a 21-6 halftime lead and lost at home to the Arizona Cardinals.
In three straight games, they have surrendered at least 20 points in a half — to non-playoff teams.
The Eagles are also a league-worst 46% in yielding first downs on 3rd-and-10 or more. There is even talk about head coach Nick Sirianni being fired and that he’s lost the players.
Few teams freefall into the playoffs as Philadelphia has.
“Yes, they are having trouble, but on the other side, Tampa Bay can’t score,” Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, told Gaming Today after Tampa’s 9-0 victory over the Carolina Panthers to clinch the NFC South last week.
Past form suggests a Philadelphia romp, but recent form gives the nod to Tampa Bay.
Bettors have a tough call.
Injury-wise, Jalen Hurts, AJ Brown, and DeVonta Smith — all banged up in recent games — are expected to play.
BetMGM NFL Wild Card Round Highlights
Most Bet Games (Tickets)
Most Bet Teams (Tickets)
- Browns, -2.5
- Rams, +3
- Eagles, -2.5
Most Bet Teams (Handle)
- Browns, -2.5
- Rams, +3
- Cowboys, -7.5
Most Bet Overs (Tickets)
- Browns-Texans, 44.5
- Packers-Cowboys, 50.5
- Rams-Lions, 51.5
Most Bet Unders (Tickets)
- Dolphins-Chiefs, 44
- Steelers-Bills, 35.5
- Eagles-Buccaneers, 44
Most Bet Underdogs to Win Outright (Tickets)
- Steelers, +400
- Rams, +150
- Packers, +275