With both the NFL Draft and schedule release in the rearview mirror, bettors are starting to lock in NFL futures bets, including regular-season awards.
Like other regular-season accolades, the NFL Coach of the Year (COY) award is unpredictable, as the candidate with the shortest odds is Brandon Staley of the Los Angeles Chargers at +1400 on DraftKings and BetMGM.
The criteria for COY is based not on stats, of course, but on narrative and the extent to which a coach exceeds expectations. Voters tend to favor first-year head coaches (winners of three of the last five seasons), coaches whose teams come into the season with low expectations, and those who overcome a superstar injury. Conversely, veteran coaches and/or coaches whose teams had high expectations tend to get overlooked.
This page is dedicated to helping bettors stay updated on the Coach of the Year odds, along with providing analysis for a handful of play-callers.
Here are NFL Coach of the Year odds from three sportsbooks around the betting marketplace.
| Odds On 2022 NFL Coach of the Year | DraftKings | BetMGM | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Staley | +1400 | +1400 | +1500 |
| Nathaniel Hackett | +1600 | +1600 | +1500 |
| Mike McDaniel | +1600 | +1400 | +2000 |
| Josh McDaniels | +1800 | +1600 | +2200 |
| Sean McDermott | +1800 | +3000 | +1500 |
| Kyle Shanahan | +2000 | +1600 | +1500 |
| Kevin Stefanski | +2000 | +2500 | +1500 |
| Frank Reich | +2000 | +2000 | +1800 |
| Dan Campbell | +2000 | +2000 | +2500 |
| Doug Pederson | +2000 | +1400 | +2500 |
| Sean McVay | +2000 | +2500 | +1500 |
| Zak Taylor | +2000 | +2500 | +1800 |
| Bill Belichick | +2000 | +2500 | +2000 |
| Brian Daboll | +2000 | +1400 | +2000 |
| Nick Sirianni | +2000 | +1600 | +2500 |
| Todd Bowles | +2000 | +3000 | +2000 |
| Kevin O'Connell | +2000 | +1400 | +2000 |
| Kliff Kingsbury | +2200 | +3000 | +3000 |
| Mike Vrabel | +2200 | +2500 | +1500 |
| Andy Reid | +2200 | +3500 | +1500 |
| Matt LaFleur | +2200 | +2000 | +2500 |
| Ron Rivera | +2500 | +2500 | +3000 |
| John Harbaugh | +2500 | +2000 | +2200 |
| Robert Saleh | +2800 | +3000 | +3500 |
| Mike McCarthy | +2800 | +4000 | +3000 |
| Dennis Allen | +3000 | +3000 | +2500 |
| Mike Tomlin | +3000 | +3000 | +5000 |
| Matt Rhule | +4000 | +4000 | +3000 |
| Matt Eberflus | +4000 | +3000 | +4000 |
| Pete Carroll | +5000 | +4000 | +6000 |
| Arthur Smith | +5000 | +4000 | +4500 |
| Lovie Smith | +5000 | +4000 | +6000 |
Betting Favorites
Brandon Staley (+1500, Caesars)
After falling just short of making the playoffs last season, Los Angeles’ Staley charges into this season with one of the most star-studded rosters in football.
Competing in a loaded AFC West division might initially appear to hinder his path to Coach of the Year, but a tough challenge is exactly what Staley needs to draw voters’ attention. Beating out the Raiders, Broncos, and especially the Chiefs, would be a convincing argument.
Nathaniel Hackett (+1600, DraftKings)
Nathaniel Hackett has had limited success as an offensive coordinator in the NFL, but he now has a golden opportunity in his first head coaching gig to right the wrong with the Denver Broncos.
Denver allowed the third-fewest points in the NFL last season, yet finished 7-10 due to poor quarterback play. However, with newly acquired Russell Wilson now at the helm, Hackett and the well-rounded Broncos have the potential to make some noise.
Josh McDaniels (+2200, Caesars)
After helping the New England Patriots secure three Super Bowl titles in 10 seasons as offensive coordinator, Josh McDaniels gets his second opportunity to be a team’s primary decision-maker. He brings his winning background to the Raiders locker room.
McDaniels has one of the most loaded offensive units at his disposal, featuring proven quarterback Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller, and Davante Adams, as well as Maxx Crosby manning the defensive front.
Similar to Staley, sitting on top of the toughest division in the NFL would turn voters’ heads.
In The Hunt
Matt LaFleur (+2500, Caesars)
LaFleur is a prime example of a coach’s impact being overshadowed by the greatness of one of his players. He has received COY votes in all three seasons with Green Bay but never enough to get over the top, partly because his quarterback was Aaron Rodgers.
With star wideout Davante Adams now in Las Vegas, it’ll be interesting to see what LaFleur can do with a less talented skill group. If he can keep the offense afloat while still winning 12 or so games, he might finally show voters his true impact.
The Packers are now 39-9 with Matt LaFleur as their coach, as LaFleur has *more* wins than any head coach in his first three seasons in NFL history.
And for the "but he has Aaron Rodgers!" crowd…
The Packers were 24-23-1 in Rodgers' last 48 starts prior to LaFleur's arrival.
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) January 3, 2022
Sean McDermott (+3000, BetMGM)
Oddsmakers have mixed feelings about Sean McDermott’s case for COY. He’s a mid- to low-tier longshot at +3000 on BetMGM, but he’s tied for the shortest odds on Caesars at +1500.
Heading into his sixth season as head coach of the Buffalo Bills, McDermott is in charge of putting together another double-digit win campaign, again with arguably the most talented roster in the NFL.
The only way McDermott wins the award is if he can coach the Bills to the No. 1 seed in a competitive AFC. That’s within his grasp, as he led his team to the second seed with a 13-3 record in 2020, finishing second to Kevin Stefanski in COY voting.
Best Value
Mike McDaniel (+2000, Caesars)
First-time head coach Mike McDaniel coaches one of the youngest, yet highly talented, rosters in the league, including new Dolphins signees tackle Terron Armstead and All-Pro wide receiver Tyreek Hill.
The X factor for McDaniel’s case is how well he transforms Tua Tagovailoa. If the quarterback has already reached his ceiling, then McDaniel won’t be able to do much. But if you believe a smart offensive mind like McDaniel can unlock potential still within Tagovailoa, then Miami should be able to achieve 10-plus wins and McDaniel warrants major COY consideration.
History Doesn’t Favor These Play-callers
Mike Vrabel (+2500, BetMGM)
The case that propelled Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel to earn last season’s coaching honor was overcoming star running back Derrick Henry’s injury. In the nine regular-season games without Henry, Vrabel was able to will his team to a 6-3 record to close the season (12-5 overall) and claim the top seed in the AFC.
Being the defending COY winner might reiterate to voters he’s a bona fide elite coach who deserves future consideration, but history suggests Vrabel’s chances of putting together consecutive award-winning seasons is nearly impossible. The last coach to win back-to-back COY awards was Washington’s Joe Gibbs in 1982-83.
Dan Campbell (+3000, BetMGM)
Despite posting a 3-13-1 record last season, Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell’s season was deemed a relative success in many people’s eyes. Detroit should be better this season with a collection of high-profile draft selections, but it may not be enough to sway voters.
One of the most effective ways to earn COY consideration is by racking up wins, because who would vote for someone who manages a losing football team? If you look at the team records of past COY winners, you’ll notice a telling trend. Every winning coach since 1991 – except for Bruce Arians in 2012 – has reached double-digit wins. Arians won nine games for the Indianapolis Colts that season, after taking over head coaching duties in Week 5. To take it one step further, the past nine winners have won 11-plus games.
The Lions are projected to win 6.5 games by the betting market, far less than the much-needed 10, and have the fourth-longest odds to win the Super Bowl. Campbell needs to carry a lottery team to double-digit wins in order to gather some votes.
Coach Of The Year Winner History
Here are the Coach of the Year winners from the past 20 seasons:
| Year | Coach | Team |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | Mike Vrabel | Tennessee Titans |
| 2020 | Kevin Stefanski | Cleveland Browns |
| 2019 | John Harbaugh | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2018 | Matt Nagy | Chicago Bears |
| 2017 | Sean McVay | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2016 | Jason Garrett | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2015 | Ron Rivera | Carolina Panthers |
| 2014 | Bruce Arians | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2013 | Ron Rivera | Carolina Panthers |
| 2012 | Bruce Arians | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2011 | Jim Harbaugh | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2010 | Bill Belichick | New England Patriots |
| 2009 | Marvin Lewis | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2008 | Mike Smith | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2007 | Bill Belichick | New England Patriots |
| 2006 | Sean Payton | New Orleans Saints |
| 2005 | Lovie Smith | Chicago Bears |
| 2004 | Marty Schottenheimer | San Diego Chargers |
| 2003 | Bill Belichick | New England Patriots |
| 2002 | Andy Reid | Philadelphia Eagles |
How to Read NFL Coach of the Year Odds
Before you place a wager on whichever coach you feel will take home the award, it’s important to understand how to read Coach of the Year odds and what they mean.
According to American odds, if a bet has a “+” before the number, then it indicates the bet has an implied probability of less than 50%. The number after the plus sign tells you how much you would net profit from a $100 wager. However, bettors can risk any amount they want. $100 is just what the expression of the odds is based on, and the payout is scalable depending on the amount of wager.
Let’s take a look at Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh, who bettors can snatch for +2500 on DraftKings. A $100 wager on Harbaugh would net backers $2,500 profit plus their initial $100 bet, a $50 bet would net $1,250, and so on.
Since every coaching candidate is listed with plus odds, that means there’s no “odds-on” favorite, which further means no single coach has an implied probability of more than 50% to win the award.
When Will 2022 NFL Coach of the Year Be Voted On And Announced?
The award will be voted on shortly after the regular season ends, which means that postseason play won’t be taken into account when voters submit their ballots. The winner will be announced at the NFL Honors ceremony on Thursday, February 9, 2023 – three days before Super Bowl Sunday.
Who Picks Coach of the Year?
The award is voted on by a panel of 50 members of the Associated Press. The panelists cover the NFL season and then place their individual votes.
About the Author
