Like other regular-season accolades, the NFL Coach of the Year (COY) award is unpredictable, as the candidate with the shortest odds is Brandon Staley of the Los Angeles Chargers at +1400 on DraftKings and BetMGM.
The criteria for COY is based not on stats, of course, but on narrative and the extent to which a coach exceeds expectations. Voters tend to favor first-year head coaches (winners of three of the last five seasons), coaches whose teams come into the season with low expectations, and those who overcome a superstar injury. Conversely, veteran coaches and/or coaches whose teams had high expectations tend to get overlooked.
This page is dedicated to helping bettors stay updated on the Coach of the Year odds, along with providing analysis for a handful of play-callers.
Here are NFL Coach of the Year odds from three sportsbooks around the betting marketplace.
History Doesn’t Favor These Play-callers
Mike Vrabel (+2500, BetMGM)
The case that propelled Tennessee Titans head coach Mike Vrabel to earn last season’s coaching honor was overcoming star running back Derrick Henry’s injury. In the nine regular-season games without Henry, Vrabel was able to will his team to a 6-3 record to close the season (12-5 overall) and claim the top seed in the AFC.
Being the defending COY winner might reiterate to voters he’s a bona fide elite coach who deserves future consideration, but history suggests Vrabel’s chances of putting together consecutive award-winning seasons is nearly impossible. The last coach to win back-to-back COY awards was Washington’s Joe Gibbs in 1982-83.
Dan Campbell (+3000, BetMGM)
Despite posting a 3-13-1 record last season, Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell’s season was deemed a relative success in many people’s eyes. Detroit should be better this season with a collection of high-profile draft selections, but it may not be enough to sway voters.
One of the most effective ways to earn COY consideration is by racking up wins, because who would vote for someone who manages a losing football team? If you look at the team records of past COY winners, you’ll notice a telling trend. Every winning coach since 1991 – except for Bruce Arians in 2012 – has reached double-digit wins. Arians won nine games for the Indianapolis Colts that season, after taking over head coaching duties in Week 5. To take it one step further, the past nine winners have won 11-plus games.
The Lions are projected to win 6.5 games by the betting market, far less than the much-needed 10, and have the fourth-longest odds to win the Super Bowl. Campbell needs to carry a lottery team to double-digit wins in order to gather some votes.
Coach Of The Year Winner History
Here are the Coach of the Year winners from the past 20 seasons:
|2021||Mike Vrabel||Tennessee Titans|
|2020||Kevin Stefanski||Cleveland Browns|
|2019||John Harbaugh||Baltimore Ravens|
|2018||Matt Nagy||Chicago Bears|
|2017||Sean McVay||Los Angeles Rams|
|2016||Jason Garrett||Dallas Cowboys|
|2015||Ron Rivera||Carolina Panthers|
|2014||Bruce Arians||Arizona Cardinals|
|2013||Ron Rivera||Carolina Panthers|
|2012||Bruce Arians||Indianapolis Colts|
|2011||Jim Harbaugh||San Francisco 49ers|
|2010||Bill Belichick||New England Patriots|
|2009||Marvin Lewis||Cincinnati Bengals|
|2008||Mike Smith||Atlanta Falcons|
|2007||Bill Belichick||New England Patriots|
|2006||Sean Payton||New Orleans Saints|
|2005||Lovie Smith||Chicago Bears|
|2004||Marty Schottenheimer||San Diego Chargers|
|2003||Bill Belichick||New England Patriots|
|2002||Andy Reid||Philadelphia Eagles|
How to Read NFL Coach of the Year Odds
Before you place a wager on whichever coach you feel will take home the award, it’s important to understand how to read Coach of the Year odds and what they mean.
According to American odds, if a bet has a “+” before the number, then it indicates the bet has an implied probability of less than 50%. The number after the plus sign tells you how much you would net profit from a $100 wager. However, bettors can risk any amount they want. $100 is just what the expression of the odds is based on, and the payout is scalable depending on the amount of wager.
Let’s take a look at Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh, who bettors can snatch for +2500 on DraftKings. A $100 wager on Harbaugh would net backers $2,500 profit plus their initial $100 bet, a $50 bet would net $1,250, and so on.
Since every coaching candidate is listed with plus odds, that means there’s no “odds-on” favorite, which further means no single coach has an implied probability of more than 50% to win the award.
When Will 2022 NFL Coach of the Year Be Voted On And Announced?
The award will be voted on shortly after the regular season ends, which means that postseason play won’t be taken into account when voters submit their ballots. The winner will be announced at the NFL Honors ceremony on Thursday, February 9, 2023 – three days before Super Bowl Sunday.
Who Picks Coach of the Year?
The award is voted on by a panel of 50 members of the Associated Press. The panelists cover the NFL season and then place their individual votes.