2023 NFL Coach Of The Year Odds & Betting Predictions: Dan Campbell Enters Season as Favorite

The criteria for COY is based not on stats, of course, but on narrative and the extent to which a coach exceeds expectations. Voters tend to favor first-year head coaches (winners of four of the last six seasons), coaches whose teams come into the season with low expectations, and those who overcome a superstar injury. Conversely, veteran coaches and/or coaches whose teams had high expectations tend to get overlooked (see Andy Reid and Bill Belichick for most of their careers).

Betting Favorites

Dan Campbell (+850 to +950)

It took a season and a half for Campbell to finally change the culture in Detroit. After a 4-19-1 start to his tenure with the Lions, Campbell had decided that enough was enough and pushed his team to win eight of its final 10 contests in 2022.

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Between the latter half of last season and this upcoming season, the Lions look extremely promising as they continue to improve as a whole. The defense brought in CJ Gardner-Johnson and Cameron Sutton to bolster the secondary, which allowed the third-most passing yards in 2022. And we already know how prolific the offense can be.

With Aaron Rodgers’ departure from Green Bay, the Lions are now the favorites to win the NFC North. A playoff berth alone, which would be Detroit’s first in seven years, is a great place to start with Campbell’s campaign.

The problem, however, is that the Lions are expected to be good. They have a projected 2023 win total of 9.5 wins, so Campbell will have to turn this team into a juggernaut in order to show voters his true value.

Sean Payton (+900 to +1400)

After taking all of last year off, Payton will put his headset back on and take over a Broncos squad that may have been the most disappointing team in the entire NFL last season. 

There’s no question about the longtime Saints play-caller’s pedigree. A former Super Bowl-winning head coach and the 2006 Coach of the Year, Payton led the Saints to 10 wins after the club posted a 3-13 record the previous season. That’s the kind of value Payton brings to a football team, and he looks to do the same in the Mile High City.

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The one factor standing in his way of winning COY is the division. If the Broncos can bounce back from last season and make the playoffs while competing in the loaded AFC West, then Payton may take home the gold.

Robert Saleh (+1600)

The Jets haven’t made the playoffs since Rex Ryan was at the helm in 2010. That makes the Jets the not-so-proud owners of the longest playoff drought (12 years) in North American professional sports.

New York is expected to be good next season, and a lot of the credit will go to Aaron Rodgers. However, if this club can earn one of the top seeds in the AFC by the time the playoffs roll around, then voters will be forced to give Saleh his credit as well.

Saleh coached the defense to allow the second-fewest points per game in the league last season. And despite working with a committee of subpar quarterbacks, he managed to lead the Jets to win seven games. Imagine how many wins he can rack up when calling plays for one of the most talented quarterbacks in the history of the sport.