NFL Betting Odds: Take A Flyer On Steelers’ Mike Tomlin As Coach Of The Year

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Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin could be in the mix at long odds for NFL Coach of the Year. (AP Photo/Gene J. Puskar)

NFL Coach of the Year (COY) winners are often coaches who turn around perpetually bad teams or continue to win games despite losing a superstar. In recent years, first-year head coaches have done well, winning three of the previous five awards.

The odds at sportsbooks favor a second-year head coach, Brandon Staley, as of Monday afternoon. However, his odds at DraftKings, Caesars, and BetMGM only give him a 6.25 to 6.67 percent chance of winning.

Staley An Early Favorite For COY; Competition Not Far Behind

With 10 first-year head coaches, including five first-time head coaches, the competition could be fierce this season:

Odds On 2022 NFL Coach of the YearDraftKingsBetMGMCaesars
Brandon Staley+1400+1400+1500
Nathaniel Hackett+1600+1600+1500
Mike McDaniel+1600+1400+2000
Josh McDaniels+1800+1600+2200
Sean McDermott+1800+3000+1500
Kyle Shanahan+2000+1600+1500
Kevin Stefanski+2000+2500+1500
Frank Reich+2000+2000+1800
Dan Campbell+2000+2000+2500
Doug Pederson+2000+1400+2500
Sean McVay+2000+2500+1500
Zak Taylor+2000+2500+1800
Bill Belichick+2000+2500+2000
Brian Daboll+2000+1400+2000
Nick Sirianni+2000+1600+2500
Todd Bowles+2000+3000+2000
Kevin O'Connell+2000+1400+2000
Kliff Kingsbury+2200+3000+3000
Mike Vrabel+2200+2500+1500
Andy Reid+2200+3500+1500
Matt LaFleur+2200+2000+2500
Ron Rivera+2500+2500+3000
John Harbaugh+2500+2000+2200
Robert Saleh+2800+3000+3500
Mike McCarthy+2800+4000+3000
Dennis Allen+3000+3000+2500
Mike Tomlin+3000+3000+5000
Matt Rhule+4000+4000+3000
Matt Eberflus+4000+3000+4000
Pete Carroll+5000+4000+6000
Arthur Smith+5000+4000+4500
Lovie Smith+5000+4000+6000

Like any award, potential winners need to do something noteworthy. That is often easiest for first-year head coaches to do. They got the job because the previous coaching staff failed to turn the team around. But if they can do what the prior regime could not, their name will likely be in the COY conversation at the end of the year.

Losing a major player like the Titans did last season will put the head coach in a position to win. But it is impossible to predict who may lose someone to injury.

However, to win COY, it is not necessary to lose a superstar to injury, have a losing record the previous season, or be a new head coach. Head coaches of teams that make dramatic turnarounds have also won in recent years, i.e., Jason Garrett (2016; although he did lose Tony Romo to an injury), Ron Rivera (2015), and Bruce Arians (2014).

Coach Of The Year Betting Odds Analysis

Eyes will be on all 10 first-year head coaches to start the season, especially the five first-time head coaches (Brian Daboll, Nathaniel Hackett, Matt Eberflus, Kevin O’Connell, and Mike McDaniel). Turning around a perpetual loser like the Jaguars will not be easy for Doug Pederson or Daboll in New York.

It is hard to say whether either has the talent to do so. However, that could make a turnaround even more impressive if/when it happens.

Should the Broncos, Raiders, or Charges unseat the Chiefs in the AFC West (K.C. has won the division six years in a row), that team’s head coach (Hackett, Josh McDaniels, Staley) will have a strong case. Having Russell Wilson at quarterback for the Broncos could give Hackett an edge.

But if O’Connell (Minnesota) can end Green Bay’s stranglehold on the NFC North, that may be a more impressive accomplishment. The Packers have won the NFC North the last four years and eight of the last 11. The talent is certainly on the offensive side of the ball, but can the defense slow down Aaron Rodgers?

With the talent the Dolphins have surrounded Tua Tagovailoa with during the offseason, McDaniel’s odds may never get above +2000. His chances will rest on whether he can turn Tagovailoa into a franchise-caliber quarterback. Since Miami is in the same division as Buffalo, 10 wins and a wild card berth may be enough.

However, the most intriguing bet may be on Mike Tomlin, at +5000 at Caesars. He has all the talent he needs on the roster; it’s just a matter of whether he can turn Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett into a viable starter at QB.

About the Author

Travis Pulver

Writer and Contributor
Travis Pulver is a lifelong football fan, something he says comes naturally having been born in the football-crazy state of Texas. Through the years, his love of sports has extended into baseball, basketball, golf, and rugby. Life currently finds him in Indiana with his wife and two kids.

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