NFL Coach of the Year (COY) winners are often coaches who turn around perpetually bad teams or continue to win games despite losing a superstar. In recent years, first-year head coaches have done well, winning three of the previous five awards.
The odds at sportsbooks favor a second-year head coach, Brandon Staley, as of Monday afternoon. However, his odds at DraftKings, Caesars, and BetMGM only give him a 6.25 to 6.67 percent chance of winning.
Staley An Early Favorite For COY; Competition Not Far Behind
With 10 first-year head coaches, including five first-time head coaches, the competition could be fierce this season:
| Odds On 2022 NFL Coach of the Year | DraftKings | BetMGM | Caesars |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Staley | +1400 | +1400 | +1500 |
| Nathaniel Hackett | +1600 | +1600 | +1500 |
| Mike McDaniel | +1600 | +1400 | +2000 |
| Josh McDaniels | +1800 | +1600 | +2200 |
| Sean McDermott | +1800 | +3000 | +1500 |
| Kyle Shanahan | +2000 | +1600 | +1500 |
| Kevin Stefanski | +2000 | +2500 | +1500 |
| Frank Reich | +2000 | +2000 | +1800 |
| Dan Campbell | +2000 | +2000 | +2500 |
| Doug Pederson | +2000 | +1400 | +2500 |
| Sean McVay | +2000 | +2500 | +1500 |
| Zak Taylor | +2000 | +2500 | +1800 |
| Bill Belichick | +2000 | +2500 | +2000 |
| Brian Daboll | +2000 | +1400 | +2000 |
| Nick Sirianni | +2000 | +1600 | +2500 |
| Todd Bowles | +2000 | +3000 | +2000 |
| Kevin O'Connell | +2000 | +1400 | +2000 |
| Kliff Kingsbury | +2200 | +3000 | +3000 |
| Mike Vrabel | +2200 | +2500 | +1500 |
| Andy Reid | +2200 | +3500 | +1500 |
| Matt LaFleur | +2200 | +2000 | +2500 |
| Ron Rivera | +2500 | +2500 | +3000 |
| John Harbaugh | +2500 | +2000 | +2200 |
| Robert Saleh | +2800 | +3000 | +3500 |
| Mike McCarthy | +2800 | +4000 | +3000 |
| Dennis Allen | +3000 | +3000 | +2500 |
| Mike Tomlin | +3000 | +3000 | +5000 |
| Matt Rhule | +4000 | +4000 | +3000 |
| Matt Eberflus | +4000 | +3000 | +4000 |
| Pete Carroll | +5000 | +4000 | +6000 |
| Arthur Smith | +5000 | +4000 | +4500 |
| Lovie Smith | +5000 | +4000 | +6000 |
Like any award, potential winners need to do something noteworthy. That is often easiest for first-year head coaches to do. They got the job because the previous coaching staff failed to turn the team around. But if they can do what the prior regime could not, their name will likely be in the COY conversation at the end of the year.
Losing a major player like the Titans did last season will put the head coach in a position to win. But it is impossible to predict who may lose someone to injury.
However, to win COY, it is not necessary to lose a superstar to injury, have a losing record the previous season, or be a new head coach. Head coaches of teams that make dramatic turnarounds have also won in recent years, i.e., Jason Garrett (2016; although he did lose Tony Romo to an injury), Ron Rivera (2015), and Bruce Arians (2014).
Coach Of The Year Betting Odds Analysis
Eyes will be on all 10 first-year head coaches to start the season, especially the five first-time head coaches (Brian Daboll, Nathaniel Hackett, Matt Eberflus, Kevin O’Connell, and Mike McDaniel). Turning around a perpetual loser like the Jaguars will not be easy for Doug Pederson or Daboll in New York.
It is hard to say whether either has the talent to do so. However, that could make a turnaround even more impressive if/when it happens.
Should the Broncos, Raiders, or Charges unseat the Chiefs in the AFC West (K.C. has won the division six years in a row), that team’s head coach (Hackett, Josh McDaniels, Staley) will have a strong case. Having Russell Wilson at quarterback for the Broncos could give Hackett an edge.
But if O’Connell (Minnesota) can end Green Bay’s stranglehold on the NFC North, that may be a more impressive accomplishment. The Packers have won the NFC North the last four years and eight of the last 11. The talent is certainly on the offensive side of the ball, but can the defense slow down Aaron Rodgers?
With the talent the Dolphins have surrounded Tua Tagovailoa with during the offseason, McDaniel’s odds may never get above +2000. His chances will rest on whether he can turn Tagovailoa into a franchise-caliber quarterback. Since Miami is in the same division as Buffalo, 10 wins and a wild card berth may be enough.
However, the most intriguing bet may be on Mike Tomlin, at +5000 at Caesars. He has all the talent he needs on the roster; it’s just a matter of whether he can turn Mitchell Trubisky or Kenny Pickett into a viable starter at QB.
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