NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds 2023: Bills’ Damar Hamlin Favored Ahead of Star QBs Tagovailoa, Jackson

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Through seven weeks of the 2023 NFL season, the preseason favorite in the Comeback Player of the Year odds (CPOY), Bills safety Damar Hamlin (), remains the top contender for the award.

Hamlin became one of the biggest stories of the 2022 season with his recovery from a life-threatening injury he suffered after making a tackle during a Monday Night Football matchup against the Bengals last January. He has made one appearance in a regular season game this year, in Week 4 against the Dolphins, where he played on special teams.

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The subjectivity of the award makes it easy for opinions and the betting odds at sportsbooks to vary. As always, it’s a good idea to shop around for the best odds before betting, which also allows you to take advantage of generous welcome bonuses offered by online sportsbooks.

2023 NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds

In addition to Hamlin, other contenders for the award include Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa , Ravens QB Lamar Jackson , Jets RB Breece Hall , and Rams WR Cooper Kupp .

The following table contains a list of players with odds at the top sports betting apps in the country:

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There isn’t an official definition or criteria for Comeback Player of the Year. But according to an unofficial one, a player needs to show perseverance in overcoming adversity. What qualifies as ‘adversity’ is up to voters. Amongst the players listed at sportsbooks will be guys coming off serious injuries, coming off a suspension, or a bad year, etc.

With such broad criteria, sportsbooks give odds to a wide range of players. But it should come as no surprise that Hamlin has opened as the betting favorite. It’s one thing to return from an ACL tear, numerous concussions, or a bad year — but cardiac arrest?

Given what Hamlin has overcome — and how massive his story became over the past year — it’s clear that even if his role is minimal, he’s the most likely winner of this award. With Hamlin having remained the favorite after staying on the sidelines for six of his team’s first seven games, it’s hard to imagine any other player winning the award this year, even if Hamlin does not see much playing time the rest of the season.

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Betting Analysis for Comeback Player of the Year Odds

Making a Case for Damar Hamlin

As mentioned above, Hamlin has already completed an incredible comeback by making this roster. Any on-field impact he might have the rest of this season would just cement an already rock-solid case for him to be named CPOY.

Damar Hamlin’s Competition for Comeback Player of the Year

Remember former Washington quarterback Alex Smith and the 17 surgeries it took to recover from his devastating leg injury (from the 2018 season)? He got the chance to play in Week 5 of the 2020 season and looked terrible. But he became a heavy favorite to win CPOY in the days following that start simply because he played.

He played in eight games, starting six (in which the team went 5-1).

It was shocking that Smith could walk again, let alone run and play football at the NFL level — and play well (mostly). But as devastating as his injury was, it doesn’t compare to a cardiac arrest. Smith’s story is a great reminder — and reinforcement — of how strong of a candidate Hamlin is to win CPOY this season.

Still, Hamlin’s not the only player who’s had an impressive comeback over the last year (though knee and shoulder injuries obviously do not compare to what Hamlin went through).

In addition to the aforementioned candidates — Tagovailoa, Jackson, Hall, Kupp — another player to keep an eye on is Houston Texans WR John Metchie III (), who missed his rookie season to battle Leukemia.

Like Hamlin, Metchie has fought through something much more trying than any of the orthopedic issues overcome by the other players we’ve mentioned. But with just six catches on the year, Metchie’s lack of a role in the Texans offense means he’s unlikely to contend for this award.

CPOY Odds: Longshots

Everyone other than Hamlin is a longshot going into Week 8. That being said, the players below could give voters something to think about if they continue to play well:

Tua Tagovailoa

The leader of the high-flying Dolphins offense is in the mix for Offensive Player of the Year, MVP, and CPOY. He’s off to an incredible start to the season after suffering multiple concussions in 2022. If Tagovailoa ends up with the best numbers of any QB (he currently leads the NFL in passing yards, completion percentage, and yards per attempt, and he’s second with 15 TD passes), he probably has the best chance to win this award of any player not named Damar Hamlin.

Lamar Jackson

Jackson has recovered well from the PCL injury that ended his 2022 season early. Jackson has bounced back well from that injury as well as the offseason uncertainty around whether he would remain in Baltimore, but his odds remain as long as +1500 at DraftKings, even after he delivered one of the best performances of the year against Detroit in Week 7.

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NFL Comeback Player of the Year Betting History

The award can go to an offensive or defensive player, although only five defensive players (the last being Eric Berry in 2015) have won since the AP started handing out the award in 1998. Since then, only one running back has won (Garrison Hearst, 2001), one tight end (Rob Gronkowski, 2014), and three wide receivers.

Quarterbacks have won 15 times, including the last five. Three of the last five and nine of the previous 13 winners were coming back from serious injuries. As for the other four:

  • Geno Smith (2022): Smith had been relegated to becoming a career backup since losing his job as the starter with the Jets. He was seen as a placeholder (for whoever they’d end up drafting in 2023) when the Seahawks named him the starter heading into the 2022 season. He went on to have the best season of his career while leading the Seahawks to a 9-8 record.
  • Ryan Tannehill (2019): His career appeared to be over when the Dolphins traded him to the Titans. But once he got the chance to play, he made the most of the opportunity and resurrected his career.
  • Philip Rivers (2013): Rivers had played poorly the two seasons prior to the year he won but regained his Pro Bowl form and had a stellar year in ’13.
  • Michael Vick (2010): Vick took over as the starter for most of the 2010 season and had one of the best statistical years of his career (the only one with a 100 rating).

The table contains a list of the CPOY winners dating back to 1998 (odds via SportsOddsHistory.com):

YearPlayerPositionTeamPreseason Odds
2022Geno SmithQuarterbackSeattle SeahawksNot Listed
2021Joe BurrowQuarterbackCincinnati Bengals+800
2020Alex SmithQuarterbackWashington Football Team+300
2019Ryan TannehillQuarterbackTennessee TitansNot Listed
2018Andrew LuckQuarterbackIndianapolis Colts+450
2017Keenan AllenWide ReceiverLos Angeles Chargers+900
2016Jordy NelsonWide ReceiverGreen Bay Packers+600
2015Eric BerrySafetyKansas City Chiefs+500
2014Rob GronkowskiTight EndNew England Patriots+1000
2013Philip RiversQuarterbackSan Diego ChargersNA
2012Peyton Manning QuarterbackDenver BroncosNA
2011Matthew StaffordQuarterbackDetroit LionsNA
2010Michael VickQuarterbackPhiladelphia EaglesNA
2009Tom BradyQuarterbackNew England Patriots NA
2008Chad PenningtonQuarterbackMiami DolphinsNA
2007Greg EllisDefensive EndDallas CowboysNA
2006Chad PenningtonQuarterbackNew York JetsNA
2005Teddy Bruschi and Steve Smith Jr.Linebacker / Wide ReceiverNew England Patriots / Carolina PanthersNA
2004Drew BreesQuarterbackSan Diego ChargersNA
2003Jon KitnaQuarterbackCincinnati BengalsNA
2002Tommy MadduxQuarterbackPittsburgh SteelersNA
2001Garrison HearstRunning BackSan Francisco 49ersNA
2000Joe JohnsonDefensive EndNew Orleans SaintsNA
1999Bryant YoungDefensive TackleSan Francisco 49ersNA
1998Doug FlutieQuarterbackBuffalo BillsNA

How To Bet on NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds

  • Choose a sportsbook to place your bet with. Most states with legal sports betting have numerous options. Along with looking for the book with the best odds for your wager, pay attention to the book’s welcome offer.
  • Register for an online account and make your first deposit. When you register, enter the promo code for the welcome bonus (if required).
  • Navigate to the NFL section of the app/webpage and locate the odds for CPOY.
  • Find the player you are interested in betting on and click on his name. When the betting slip appears, enter how much you want to bet in the appropriate spot.
  • Click on ‘place bet.’

How to Read NFL Comeback Player of the Year Betting Odds

Odds can be tricky to understand if you do not know what you are looking at. They can be expressed in various forms, including decimal, fraction, or American (+/-). Books in the U.S. typically list American odds. Some sportsbooks allow you to select how you want the odds listed.

If the book does not list them with American odds, you can convert them using our odds converter.

Anything with -100 odds or shorter (i.e., -200…) has at least a 50 percent implied probability of winning. Odds of +100 or longer (i.e., +200…) imply no more than a 50 percent chance of winning.

For example, Damar Hamlin’s odds at DraftKings are +250. Using the odds converter, we can see that his odds translate into ‘5/2’ or an implied probability of 28.57 percent. If he plays, his odds could certainly go from plus money to minus, i.e, -110. Should that happen, his decimal odds would be 1.91, fractional 91/100, and his implied probability would be 52.38%.

When the odds are positive, bettors will win that number if they bet $100. So, if you bet $100 on Hamlin now and he wins, you win $250. But if you wait and don’t bet on him until they are -110, you win a lot less. When the odds are negative, the number listed is how much you have to bet to win $100. At -110, you need to risk $110 to win $100.

Where to Bet on NFL Comeback Player of the Year

Sports betting is legal, either online, at retail, or both, in the following states/ locales: New York, Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, Colorado, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Nevada, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Oregon, Montana, Arizona, Wyoming, Connecticut, Louisiana, and Ontario.

There are also some states where you can bet in person at retail sportsbooks. These states include Arkansas, Delaware, Mississippi, New Mexico, North Carolina, South Dakota, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Washington.

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Read more: Super Bowl 58 odds | NFL MVP odds | Offensive Rookie of the Year odds | Odds to make 2024 NFL Playoffs | NFL betting sites | NFL betting promos | How to bet on NFL games

NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds FAQs

How do you become a Comeback Player of the Year in the NFL?

There are no official criteria for the award, but unofficially, a player needs to show perseverance in overcoming adversity. What qualifies as ‘adversity’ is up to the voter.

How does someone become a CPOY in the NFL?

Players showing perseverance in overcoming adversity stand out in voters’ eyes. What qualifies as ‘adversity’ is up to the voters. Many candidates missed most or all of the previous season due to an injury. Others have had stellar histories but are coming off substandard seasons.

What date is the NFL CPOY announced?

The CPOY will be awarded at the same time as the rest of the regular season awards, during the NFL’s award ceremony the night before the Super Bowl. Super Bowl 58 is scheduled for Sunday, Feb. 11, 2024.

Who is the current favorite to win CPOY?

Buffalo Bills safety Damar Hamlin is the current betting favorite at FanDuel with -310 odds, which gives him an implied probability of 75.61%.

About the Author
Tyler Everett

Tyler Everett

Writer
Tyler Everett has been a sports writer since joining the student newspaper at his alma mater, NC State, back in 2008. He's covered sports and sports business for a number of newspapers and websites, including the Denver Broncos, Charlotte Observer, High Press Soccer, and Sports Business Journal, where he currently works full-time.

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