NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds 2023: Damar Hamlin Favored But 3 Players Have Value

Training camp is in progress for all 32 NFL teams, which means it’s a good time for bettors to review futures markets like Comeback Player of the Year odds (CPOY). Bills safety Damar Hamlin () is an obvious candidate and a consensus betting favorite at the nation’s top sportsbook apps.

Hamlin has participated in full contact drills and appears to be on track to resume his career. But there are several solid players making comebacks this season, along with Hamlin. Many of them could easily become the betting favorite if Hamlin struggles and/or does not see the field much.

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The subjectivity of the award makes it easy for opinions and the betting odds at sportsbooks to vary. As always, it’s a good idea to shop around for the best odds before betting, which also allows you to take advantage of generous welcome bonuses offered by online sportsbooks.

Odds of Winning Comeback Player of the Year

The following table contains a list of players with odds at the top sports betting apps in the country:

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There isn’t an official definition or criteria for Comeback Player of the Year. But according to an unofficial one, a player needs to show perseverance in overcoming adversity. What qualifies as ‘adversity’ is up to voters. Amongst the players listed at sportsbooks will be guys coming off serious injuries, coming off a suspension, or a bad year, etc.

With such broad criteria, sportsbooks give odds to a wide range of players. But it should come as no surprise that Hamlin has opened as the betting favorite. It’s one thing to return from an ACL tear, numerous concussions, or a bad year — but cardiac arrest?

Yeah, all he has to do is play, and he’ll probably win. But what if he doesn’t play or plays poorly and rarely sees the field…

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Betting Analysis for Comeback Player of the Year Odds

Making a Case for Damar Hamlin

The big question mark for Hamlin has been whether he’ll actually play again. After suffering a cardiac arrest on the field, no one would blame him if he chose not to. But the Bills safety has said throughout his recovery that he wants to continue playing, and he’s medically cleared to do so.

He participated in offseason activities and has been a full participant in training camp, where he has made a few plays:

Bills’ safety Damar Hamlin is back at practice …. and back to intercepting passes.

📹 @BuffaloBills pic.twitter.com/bAywCdEq0w

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) August 1, 2023

Of course, making plays in training camp is one thing. But can he do so in games? We will not know until he steps on the field again, but according to reports, he has taken part in contact drills during training camp.

But If Hamlin Does Not Play or Plays Poorly…

Remember former Washington quarterback Alex Smith and the 17 surgeries it took to recover from his devastating leg injury (from the 2018 season)? He got the chance to play in Week 5 of the 2020 season and looked terrible. But he became a heavy favorite to win CPOY in the days following that start simply because he played.

He played in eight games, starting six (in which the team went 5-1).

It was shocking that Smith could walk again, let alone run and play football at the NFL level — and play well (mostly). But as devastating as his injury was, it doesn’t compare to a cardiac arrest. If Smith can become a heavy favorite after one game (in which he played poorly), Hamlin could win even if he just plays one down.

However, there are several impact players making comebacks this season. Most are returning from injuries (i.e., Lamar Jackson, Jimmy Garoppolo, Breece Hall, Von Miller, etc.) or just had a bad year (i.e., Russell Wilson, etc.). But then you have Houston Texans wide receiver John Metchie III who missed his rookie season to battle Leukemia.

With so many impact players making comebacks this season, voters may feel compelled to back someone other than Hamlin if he plays poorly:

• What if John Metchie III blows up and significantly impacts the Texans this season?
• What if Russell Wilson throws for 30+ touchdowns and leads the league in passing yards?
• What if Jimmy Garoppolo has a similar season for the Raiders?
• What if Von Miller turns back the clock and has 15+ sacks?
• What if Cooper Kupp becomes the first wide receiver to have a 2000+ yard season?

Hamlin is a solid choice, but there are several players that could be an even better choice if they play well enough.

CPOY Odds: Longshots

The next shortest odds to Hamlin’s belong to Lamar Jackson, courtesy of BetRivers (+1800). Everyone else has +2000 odds or longer. So, outside of Hamlin, everyone can be considered a longshot. The trick will be recognizing the players with a shot to win regardless of how Hamlin’s season plays out.

To that end, we believe the following players have value:

John Metchie

After tearing his ACL in the SEC title game in 2021, he got drafted by the Houston Texans. But his NFL career got put on hold after being diagnosed with Acute Promyelocytic Leukemia. Playing will certainly put him in the conversation, and if C.J. Stroud lives up to his draft hype, he could have an award-worthy season.

Russell Wilson

There is no other way to say it — Russell Wilson was terrible in 2022. After a successful tenure in Seattle that included a Super Bowl win, it was shocking to see him play so poorly. But fans hope there will be a massive turnaround this season with Sean Payton as head coach.

If Payton can fix whatever broke, Wilson has the talent in Denver to have an incredible and most definitely award-worthy season.

Odell Beckham

OBJ was out of the game after tearing his ACL in Super Bowl 56 in 2021. But he’ll be back on the field with Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens this season.

The Ravens have been a run-first team for years. But with a new offensive coordinator calling plays and a talented wide receiver room, there is reason to believe the Ravens could have a dangerous passing game this season. If Baltimore’s passing game explodes and OBJ plays as significant a role as expected, he will be in the conversation for CPOY at the end of the year.

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NFL Comeback Player of the Year Betting History

The award can go to an offensive or defensive player, although only five defensive players (the last being Eric Berry in 2015) have won since the AP started handing out the award in 1998. Since then, only one running back has won (Garrison Hearst, 2001), one tight end (Rob Gronkowski, 2014), and three wide receivers.

Quarterbacks have won 15 times, including the last five. Three of the last five and nine of the previous 13 winners were coming back from serious injuries. As for the other four:

• Geno Smith (2022): Smith had been relegated to becoming a career backup since losing his job as the starter with the Jets. He was seen as a placeholder (for whoever they’d end up drafting in 2023) when the Seahawks named him the starter heading into the 2022 season. He went on to have the best season of his career while leading the Seahawks to a 9-8 record.
• Ryan Tannehill (2019): His career appeared to be over when the Dolphins traded him to the Titans. But once he got the chance to play, he made the most of the opportunity and resurrected his career.
• Philip Rivers (2013): Rivers had played poorly the two seasons prior to the year he won but regained his Pro Bowl form and had a stellar year in ’13.
• Michael Vick (2010): Vick took over as the starter for most of the 2010 season and had one of the best statistical years of his career (the only one with a 100 rating).

The table contains a list of the CPOY winners dating back to 1998 (odds via SportsOddsHistory.com):

How To Bet on NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds

• Choose a sportsbook to place your bet with. Most states with legal sports betting have numerous options. Along with looking for the book with the best odds for your wager, pay attention to the book’s welcome offer.
• Register for an online account and make your first deposit. When you register, enter the promo code for the welcome bonus (if required).
• Navigate to the NFL section of the app/webpage and locate the odds for CPOY.
• Find the player you are interested in betting on and click on his name. When the betting slip appears, enter how much you want to bet in the appropriate spot.
• Click on ‘place bet.’

How to Read NFL Comeback Player of the Year Betting Odds

Odds can be tricky to understand if you do not know what you are looking at. They can be expressed in various forms, including decimal, fraction, or American (+/-). Books in the U.S. typically list American odds. Some sportsbooks allow you to select how you want the odds listed.

If the book does not list them with American odds, you can convert them using our odds converter.

Anything with -100 odds or shorter (i.e., -200…) has at least a 50 percent implied probability of winning. Odds of +100 or longer (i.e., +200…) imply no more than a 50 percent chance of winning.

For example, Damar Hamlin’s odds at DraftKings are +250. Using the odds converter, we can see that his odds translate into ‘5/2’ or an implied probability of 28.57 percent. If he plays, his odds could certainly go from plus money to minus, i.e, -110. Should that happen, his decimal odds would be 1.91, fractional 91/100, and his implied probability would be 52.38%.

When the odds are positive, bettors will win that number if they bet $100. So, if you bet $100 on Hamlin now and he wins, you win $250. But if you wait and don’t bet on him until they are -110, you win a lot less. When the odds are negative, the number listed is how much you have to bet to win $100. At -110, you need to risk $110 to win $100.

Where to Bet on NFL Comeback Player of the Year

Sports betting is legal, either online, at retail, or both, in the following states/ locales: New York, Michigan, Virginia, Tennessee, Colorado, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, Nevada, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Oregon, Montana, Arizona, Wyoming, Connecticut, Louisiana, and Ontario.

There are also some states where you can bet in person at retail sportsbooks. These states include Arkansas, Delaware, Mississippi, New Mexico, North Carolina, South Dakota, Maryland, Wisconsin, and Washington.

Best Promo Codes for NFL Comeback Player of the Year Odds Betting

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