Perhaps the most impressive list of MVP candidates to date, and we have no clear favorite. We have about eight players still within striking range to win the award. Interestingly, sportsbooks’ NFL MVP odds are vastly different across the industry.
Below is the list of MVP odds at five sportsbooks:
|Kyler Murray +400||Josh Allen +450||Kyler Murray +500||Tom Brady +500||Josh Allen +450|
|Justin Herbert +400||Kyler Murray +500||Josh Allen +500||Josh Allen +500||Kyler Murray +500|
|Josh Allen +500||Dak Prescott +650||Tom Brady +600||Justin Herbert +650||Dak Prescott +700|
|Tom Brady +600||Justin Herbert +650||Dak Prescott +700||Kyler Murray +650||Justin Herbert +700|
|Dak Prescott +650||Tom Brady +700||Justin Herbert +700||Dak Prescott +700||Tom Brady +800|
|Matthew Stafford +900||Matthew Stafford +1100||Lamar Jackson +1000||Aaron Rodgers +1000||Lamar Jackson +1000|
There is disagreement among the books about who is the favorite for NFL MVP. Sportsbooks are unsure if Kyler Murray, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, or Tom Brady should be the MVP betting favorite. The diversity brings up plenty of questions.
Including, what goes into the decision to cap a player as the favorite when there is so much variance across the market? Well, I went directly to a few books to find the answer.
MVP Handle And Ticket Count Update — Week 6
Last Sunday, PointsBet had Josh Allen at +1000 and tied for the fifth shortest odds to win the MVP award. His impressive performance and a statement win over the Chiefs launched him to favorite status. This is not the first massive odds movement for NFL MVP.
I emailed PointsBet Trade Analyst Mike Korn about MVP betting this year. He gave me insight into bet count and handle for the NFL MVP award, which mirror each other on the books’ ledgers.
Top MVP Ticket Count and Handle For PointsBet
- Kyler Murray
- Matthew Stafford
- Josh Allen
- Dak Prescott
- Justin Herbert
- Tom Brady
Currently, quarterbacks are dominating the MVP betting market at PointsBet, as they should.
DraftKings MVP Betting
DraftKings‘ list of most popular MVP bets varies from PointsBet. Missing from DrafKings’ top 10 are Dak Prescott, Tom Brady, and Lamar Jackson — each of whom is in the consensus top six in MVP odds.
Below is the full list of the handle and bet percentage for NFL MVP betting at DraftKings.
|NFL Regular Season MVP Splits|
|Rank||Player||Previous.||Current.||% of Handle.||% of Bets.|
|Provided by DraftKings Sportsbook|
While Stafford may present liability for DraftKings, if Brady, Prescott, or Jackson win the MVP, the book is setup nicely for a big win this season.