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Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Over/Under: 44

Kickoff: 10 a.m. PT


It’s only been two games, but Broncos rookie quarterback Drew Lock has already enjoyed a fairly special start to his career.

Not only did Denver emerge victorious in both contests after beginning the year 3-8, Lock looked very impressive in doing so, especially for someone who was at one point the club’s third-string quarterback.

Overall, the second-round draft pick completed 40-of-55 (72.7 percent) passes for 443 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions in the pair of outings. Lock even made a little bit of history his last time out, becoming the first rookie to ever compile 300 passing yards and three touchdowns in a QB’s first-ever road start.

Of course, this won’t be a typical assignment for the former Missouri Tiger. Not only is Lock returning home where he grew up (as a Chiefs fan and went to high school about 15 miles from Arrowhead Stadium), but he’ll also be dealing with considerable snow throughout the duration of the contest.

Luckily, living most of his life in the area I think can help supply familiarity for Lock to navigate throughout these harsh conditions. He also has a quality ground game to lean on as well, not to mention surging wide-out Courtland Sutton.

Such a winter setting doesn’t figure to phase Lock’s counterpart, the reigning NFL MVP, an honor decisively nabbed by Patrick Mahomes that some seem to forget due to Lamar Jackson’s incredible year.

But of course, Mahomes is still having another strong showing regardless in 2019. His 105.3 passer rating ranks him seventh in the league and Mahomes is also putting up nearly 300 yards per game to go with a stupendous 21-3 TD/INT ratio.

One very appealing item about the third-year quarterback is that he’s been notably consistent since taking over the starting job to begin last season, especially at home. In Mahomes’ 14 career dates at Arrowhead, the Chiefs averaged 30.8 points in those games and put at least 24 on the scoreboard in all but one of them (the lone exception was that Sunday Night Football contest against the Indianapolis Colts earlier this season when he got injured).

When we last saw Mahomes a week ago, he suffered another injury, this time to his throwing hand, but by his accounts (which I trust), he’s perfectly fine. It’s also noteworthy that he was practicing in full leading up to this divisional affair.

So if Mahomes is at or close to 100 percent, the only thing that would seem to be able to stop him is the weather. After all, in his four starts lifetime opposite the Broncos, Kansas City has run roughshod with at least 27 points in each meeting.

But the Chiefs QB has actually fared well in games in which he had to deal with the elements. Simply refer to his two standout postseason performances against the Colts and New England Patriots, which featured frigid temperatures and/or snow. Play: OVER 44 (-110)

Last Week: Titans-Raiders Under 48 (loss)

Zylbert’s 2019 NFL Over/Under Betting Record*: 9-7, +0.6 unit

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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