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Tennessee Titans at Denver Broncos

Over/Under: 40.5

Kickoff: 1:25 p.m. PT


Only one other team (Buffalo Bills) has cashed more unders in the early going than the Titans, who have seen such bets prevail in four of their five ballgames. If not for an uncharacteristic second-half outburst on offense in the season opener, there’s a pretty good chance they’d be perfect with under wagers right now.

Interestingly enough, they’re about to enter a scrap with the NFL’s best under team from a year ago. Denver finished the campaign on top in that department thanks to an illuminating 12-3-1 record to the low side. This season, that record “only” sits at 3-2 but much of the same ingredients from last year’s squad are still in place to maintain a similar pace.

The overriding factor for both clubs, of course, continues to be strong defensive play. The Titans gave up the third-fewest points per game (18.9) in football last year and have actually improved upon that mark thus far, with opponents only managing 15.2 points on average off the AFC South division resident. Meanwhile, the Broncos defense is also yielding fewer points compared to 2018, as they sit in the top-10 with 21.2 points per game allowed.

Simply put, it’s a pair of defensive units that generally make teams earn their points with methodical, time-consuming drives. In fact, Tennessee and Denver are two of only nine teams that allow fewer than seven yards per pass attempt. As it is, they’ll be getting to work against two offenses that can tend to lean more on their running game while not pulling off too many big plays. The Titans, in particular, rush the ball 46.03 percent of the time, which is third-highest in the AFC.

There might be some concern regarding the fact that the Broncos have notched only five sacks as a team, ranking them tied for last. However, the Titans have surrendered the second-most sacks in football (22) — which is also by far the highest amount quarterback Marcus Mariota has taken through the first five weeks of a season in his five-year career. Tennessee’s defense, on the other hand, is tied for fourth with 17 sacks.

An accurate way to describe this game going in as that it could be a slugfest. That’s of the defensive variety, of course, and with both teams hopefully playing their usual brand of football, figure it to live up to such expectations. It is recommended you buy the half-point up to 41 like I did to be protected in the event of a 24-17/28-13 outcome. Play: UNDER 41 (-120)

Last Week’s Result: Bears-Raiders Under 41 (“loss”)

Zylbert’s 2019 NFL Over/Under Betting Record*: 4-2, +1.7 units

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

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