There’s something uplifting about early action, even if it’s small. As Week 13 dawns, here’s three NFL parlay picks to consider at BetMGM. It consists of two moneyline and one Over-Under wager. All three picks add up to +300 odds at one of the top sports betting apps.
NFL Parlay Picks for Week 13
- Detroit Lions ML over the New Orleans Saints
- Pittsburgh Steelers ML over the Arizona Cardinals
- San Francisco 49ers-Philadelphia Eagles OVER 47.5.
Why it matters now: if the public weighs in heavily behind any NFL odds, the return on the parlay will plummet. That may ultimately determine if a bet can be made. If you like something now, take it now.
Breaking Down the NFL Parlay Picks
Detroit ML (Best Live Odds: )
The 8-3 Lions burned themselves in a 29-22 Thanksgiving Day setback to the Green Bay Packers.
Top teams often storm back from self-inflicted frustration. The Lions had their share last week. An apparent incompletion by Jared Goff was ruled a fumble and a second-quarter Green Bay touchdown.
Dice-roll Dan Campbell later passed up a potential long field goal at the end of the half and tried a fake punt from his own 23, with Detroit losing 23-14 in the third quarter. It was stuffed, and so were the Lions.
Detroit moved the ball at will, but lost to a team it had defeated in Green Bay early in the season. A message Detroit should have gotten is that although it will win the NFC North for the first time since 1993 (up 3 in the loss column), mistakes can sink even the top teams. Time to tighten up.
If Detroit is the team experts believe it is, this would be a game to show more discipline. This is also an indoor game, similar to conditions the Lions play on at home.
New Orleans, conversely, has trouble finding the end zone. It managed five field goals in a 24-15 loss to the Atlanta Falcons last week. The Saints were burned by a Pick 6 and a fumble at the Atlanta 5, creating 10 Falcons points.
Derek Carr has trouble finishing drives off, to the point that New Orleans is better in the red zone when Tayson Hill takes the snaps.
The Lions have better personnel than the 5-6 Saints and have not lost two straight this season.
(Side Implications: New Orleans and Atlanta paid well enough at -105 across most books for Over 3.5 alternate field goals last week. They combined for 6. Having been burned last week, Campbell may opt for a couple here. Once that goes up, an Over 3.5 field-goal prop could be worth considering.)
Pittsburgh Steelers ML (Best Live Odds: )
What’s this? The Steelers had 421 yards against the Cincinnati Bengals in a 16-10 triumph last week.
That’s a good output for many teams. It was monumental for the Steelers, the first time they surpassed 400 in 59 games. That’s more than three seasons. It was also the first time this year Pittsburgh outgained its opponents.
The team showed more life with a new offensive system and Pat Freiermuth’s return. Pittsburgh’s stellar tight end had 120 yards and opened the rest of the offense. Freiermuth has been an under-the-radar star for the last couple of seasons.
Pittsburgh is humming, and its backfield tandem of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren is a good one.
Arizona, conversely, is rudderless. The bottom fell out of this two-win team in a 37-14 setback to the Los Angeles Rams. Even with the return of Kyler Murray, the Cardinals have no direction.
This is excellent news for the Steelers. They may win a game by more than a touchdown for the first time all year.
Niners-Eagles Over 47.5 (Best Live Odds: )
So many weapons on either side. Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and Trent Williams have all returned from injury, and this Niners team is a machine.
Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, and A.J. Brown make the Eagles a formidable offensive team.
This is the matchup many expect to see for the NFC championship, although the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions will have a lot to say about that.
One can anticipate some long, sustained drives by these teams. Because there is a 50% chance of rain in Philadelphia, I will augment this selection with the shorter two-team parlay with Detroit and Pittsburgh ML.
BetMGM NFL Parlay Picks Overview
Here are the BetMGM odds for the parlay we’ve created. Use BetMGM bonus code TODAY to get a welcome offer of $1,500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win. More details are below.
- Detroit ML -200
- Pittsburgh ML -220
- Niners-Eagles OVER 47.5 -110
Other Parlay Considerations
Given the chance of a third straight Eagles game with precipitation, there is a hedge bet some may consider.
One can take the Pittsburgh and Detroit parlay as a separate wager at +110. I did that as an insurance policy.
This accomplishes a couple of things. It puts some money in the bank account and evades the frustrating aspect of one missed leg on a parlay. Several books offer insurance on that, too, but the focus right here is on that hedge.
A Note About Parlay Strategy
One can use a bet like this as a destination or introduction to a larger ticket.
Sportsbooks have reported several six-figure payouts in recent years for multi-legged parlay tickets that are heavily marked with moneyliner wagers and some adjusted lines or totals.
Parlays have been good to many bettors, even though they are challenging to hit. If you can hit at least a two-team parlay with reasonable odds, there will usually be a profit.
Some bettors may find a base of three picks they like, use them as a constant in several tickets, and change the betting side on the picks they are unsure about.
Either way, good luck bringing home some cash.