I’ll keep going to the well.
Here’s a potential three-team moneyline parlay for NFL Week 16 using a recent winning strategy.
Chalks in moneyline or low-spread wagers have connected here for two straight weeks. One paid +108, while the other -127.
Not seductive, but effective.
Check out our NFL parlay picks for Week 16 with a return of -102 at one of the industry’s top sports betting apps. I’ll suggest a couple of tweaks if you’d like to bump up the odds in exchange for more risk.
NFL Parlay Picks for Week 16 (All Moneyline)
- Buffalo Bills over Los Angeles Chargers
- Kansas City Chiefs over Las Vegas Raiders
- San Francisco 49ers over Baltimore Ravens
Breaking Down the NFL Parlay Picks
OK, this is the Buffalo Bills team we expect to see.
They dominated the Dallas Cowboys, rushing for 266 yards against one of the league’s premier defenses.
Buffalo opened gashes on the right side of its line, allowing James Cook to rush for 179 yards and a touchdown.
Buffalo, 8-6, has squashed any margin of error involving playoff tiebreakers. It lost to the Cincinnati Bengals and Jacksonville Jaguars, who are just ahead of them in the playoff chase. The Bills also lost to the Denver Broncos, who are just behind them.
But this is a Buffalo team that has, in successive weeks, gained 505 yards against the Philadelphia Eagles, beat the Kansas City Chiefs, and now the Cowboys.
“Let’s face it, they have to plow a path for themselves to the playoffs now,” Johnny Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, told Gaming Today. “They have to play with urgency, but they also face a Chargers team that might play well for one week.”
Ahh, the Chargers. Flawed potential. This is a 5-9 team that had to fire head coach Brandon Staley after a 63-21 shellacking by the Las Vegas Raiders last week, and they named Giff Smith as interim head coach.
It’s dangerous to face a team with a new coach because the players often rally for at least one week in the name of job security.
But this is also a Chargers team that won’t have Justin Herbert, who was injured a couple of weeks back. This is a team that doesn’t want to overemphasize Austin Ekeler in what’s become a lost season.
Do you like Josh Allen, Gabe Davis, Stefon Diggs, and James Cook against Keenan Allen and Easton Stick? I do.
Wish I could say I had a scoop, but 94% of the DraftKings bettors support Buffalo on the moneyline.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Raiders always make the Chiefs earn it and you have to love that 63-point outburst last week against Los Angeles.
Aidan O’Connell is a decent QB and he tossed four touchdowns against the Chargers. It was a big game for Davante Adams and a host of offensive players.
The Raiders can put points up against the Chiefs, but Kansas City has a strong defense. It also has Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and other tough offensive players.
It hasn’t been a stellar year for the defending Super Bowl champs, but this is one they should win. They have won the last six meetings and are 18-3 against the Raiders since 2013.
San Francisco 49ers
They have been rolling since the entire team came back healthy and have won six in a row.
For sure, this is one of the top teams they have faced. Lamar Jackson is not only a running threat but has a ridiculous resume against the NFC. He’s 19-3.
But if the Los Angeles Rams were two plays away from beating the Ravens in regulation before losing in overtime, the Ravens are due to come up a little short.
They had the 23-7 victory to Jacksonville handed to them by Jaguars’ mismanagement. The Niners don’t make those kinds of mistakes.
BetMGM NFL Parlay Picks Overview
Here are the BetMGM odds for the parlay we’ve created. Use BetMGM bonus code TODAY to get a welcome offer of $1,500 in Bonus Bets if you don’t win. More details are below.
- Buffalo Bills (-700)
- Kansas City Chiefs (-500)
- San Francisco 49ers (-225)
If you like this, grab it fast. The Niners are the darlings of the betting public. It would not be surprising to see the -225 number go up and reduce the payout.
Bettors figure to drive the point spread into the neighborhood of San Francisco -6.
At DraftKings, you can play all three of these teams at -2.5 and get +128.
Additional options exist by adjusting the totals in one direction or another. It’s simply a matter of how much you want to risk for how much you get.
Assessing One’s Chances to Cash the Ticket
Parlay bets are the rage because gamblers and operators love them for different reasons.
Players enjoy leveraging a potentially large payout with a small wager. Bet little, hit big. Huge reward, minimal risk.
Books love parlays because they enhance revenue. Parlays not only multiply hold percentage but make a multi-legged hit unlikely because one incorrect wager blows up the ticket. Thousands of multi-legged parlays miss by just one selection each week.
The price for that luxury is that books are on the hook when players occasionally hit big, as in high six or low seven figures.
“Any bet you make, the house has a theoretical hold of 4.5 percent on a straight bet of -110,” Avello, the director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, told Gaming Today. “Any time you are parlaying one game into the next, you are also parlaying hold percentage from one game to the next.
“So, if you are doing a 5-teamer, that number could be 15 percent or higher, depending upon the odds that you have selected.”
Gamblers have several ways to assess whether they like their odds.
One idea is to link up with the implied probability calculator to gain a sense of how likely the bet is to hit.
This is always good information to have, even if sports wagering differs from other types of gambling. Online casino slot games, for instance, reveal the projected rate of return to a player. This is helpful for gamblers engaged in what’s considered a random outcome.
Sports bettors who love to play hunches, go against the grain, or play a unique angle may like to know the implied win probability, but won’t be led by it.
Bettors have an additional option of sportsbook shopping. Like a parlay? Run the numbers across several books. They are all competing for your business.