Welcome to the NFL Week 18 pressure cooker.
It’s do-or-die for several teams regarding the postseason.
Here’s a three-legged parlay we’ve chosen that combines lopsided chalk on each game to return -112 at one of the best sports betting apps.
This prospective wager combines one relatively easy moneyline pick, one borderline call, and an Over/Under that would be easily reached under normal circumstances.
We added alternate parlays with two other sports betting apps, tweaking the two selections that go with the anchor.
Here are our NFL parlay picks for Week 18.
NFL Parlay Picks for Week 18
- Dallas Cowboys moneyline over the Washington Commanders
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers moneyline over the Carolina Panthers
- Chicago Bears-Green Bay Packers adjusted total Over 32.5 points
Breaking Down the NFL Parlay Picks
The Cowboys seek to collect an NFC East title gift. It was offered by the Philadelphia Eagles losing a 21-6 halftime lead and a 35-31 final to the Arizona Cardinals last week. Dallas must simply beat the Commanders as a nearly two-touchdown favorite across the sports betting landscape.
Tampa Bay is part of the aptly named NFC South. Anytime you get an angle on this division, it goes south. Teams alternate beating each other on the road, no club gets momentum, and yet somebody must win and host an NFC first-round playoff game.
A losing record could win this division.
The Bears-Packers pick is a total because although the Packers are favored, Justin Fields is red hot for the Bears and the Green Bay moneyline pick is not easy to trust.
Dallas Cowboys Moneyline
This has to be the anchor, even in a league in which nothing is certain.
The Cowboys once trailed the Eagles by 2.5 games in the NFC East. They were +700 to win the division at many books. Now, they are supposed to.
The Cowboys must merely defeat a Commanders team they plastered 45-10 on Thanksgiving Day.
It’s true that the Commanders have played with spunk and gave the San Francisco 49ers a rough time for more than a half before succumbing 27-10 last week.
It’s true that the Commanders have lost seven straight after a 20-17 triumph over the New England Patriots on Nov. 5 and may be due to win one.
It’s also true that the Commanders thumped the ‘Boys 26-6 in the season finale last year.
But this is an improved Cowboys group that should take care of business and capture the NFC East.
Dallas Cowboys Player Props To Consider
Gamblers will look for CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard to go off, along with tight end Jake Ferguson. Don’t be surprised if the Cowboys target Lamb for a bomb early. He’s an excellent consideration both for first and anytime touchdown scoring props.
In games that clinch divisions or make statements, a big star often makes a big early play.
Tampa Bay Moneyline
Yes, this team looked utterly brutal in dropping a 23-13 home affair to the New Orleans Saints last week.
That broke a four-game win streak that had started with a sloppy, non-covering 21-18 win over the Carolina Panthers in November.
What makes this risky is how tough Carolina plays at home. It has victories over the Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans. The Panthers also took the Green Bay Packers to the brink, losing 33-30 on a late field goal.
But you have to trust somebody this week.
The question is which Bucs team shows up.
Do we see the team that looked unbeatable in humbling the Jacksonville Jaguars 30-12 in Week 16?
Or do we see the team that looked inept in bowing to the Saints?
Carolina didn’t score a point last week against the team Tampa tallied 30 on one week earlier.
Does that translate into a victory here for Tampa Bay?
Tampa Bay has excellent athletes in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Baker Mayfield is experienced enough that he shouldn’t have two dud games in a row.
Carolina has a star wide receiver in Adam Thielen and a tough attitude at home.
This might be a life-and-death game for the Bucs. But being that this is life and death for their season, I think they may scrape by.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Over 32.5
Da Bears have been putting up high offensive numbers and their defense is suspect.
You are not asking a lot here to get 33 points between these defensively challenged teams.
Under normal circumstances, Green Bay at home in a must-win situation would put the moneyline nod toward the Packers.
But the Bears are playing well with the return of Justin Fields. Had he been healthy all year, they would be better than 7-9 coming into this game.
Alternate Component: Jacksonville Jaguars Moneyline
Trevor Lawrence is leaning toward a return from his shoulder injury, based on his return to practice on Wednesday.
It’s hard to tell if that’s a good thing the way this offense has sputtered with him.
Without Lawrence, the Jags protected the ball in a matter-of-fact 26-0 triumph over the Panthers last week.
In Tennessee, you get a team that plays very tough at home. These are the types of games in which Derrick Henry might throw a touchdown pass or that the Titans suddenly come to play.
Both teams have been extremely difficult to figure out.
In a week with few gimmes, this at least features one team that needs the game.
DraftKings NFL Parlay Picks Overview
Here are the DraftKings odds for the parlay we have created.
- Dallas Cowboys moneyline (-750)
- Tampa Bay Bucs moneyline (-225)
- Chicago Bears-Green Bay Packers Over 32.5 (-630)
Switching the Jags and Bucs Payout: -106
BetMGM and FanDuel Alternate Parlays
Here is an idea generated at BetMGM. This is a strict moneyline parlay with more risk and reward.
- Dallas Cowboys (-900)
- New Orleans Saints over Atlanta Falcons (-165)
- Jacksonville Jaguars over Tennessee Titans (-175)
If you feel lucky and change the Dallas bet to a moneyline victory in the first half, this bet pays +219.
One more possible parlay with the Dallas anchor from FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Dallas Cowboys moneyline (-900)
- New Orleans Saints moneyline over the Atlanta Falcons (-168)
- Bears-Packers Over 30.5 (-1000)
Note the line shop here. FanDuel offers bettors a chance to drive the Bears-Packers total down two more points than at DraftKings and then take the Over for a slightly reduced score.
These types of parlays offer a higher win probability with a lower payout.
Remember to check our implied win probability calculator and shop the books to get the price you want.