NFL Parlay Picks Week 4: Look for Correlated Bets on Sunday

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If you are like thousands of other sports bettors around the US, you enjoy taking a shot or two on NFL parlays on Sundays. Parlays are wagers that require a bettor to hit multiple legs in order to cash a ticket but offer large potential payouts. Here, we look at some ways to approach NFL parlay picks for Week 4 of the season.

While they are enticing because of the big potential tickets, bettors should understand that in most cases, a sportsbook’s edge is even greater with parlays than with straight bets. This means that the house holds (wins) a larger percentage of the money bet on parlays, and therefore less money is returned to you, the customer.

This is why sportsbooks love promoting parlays. Put simply, parlays are more profitable for the house, and therefore, necessarily bigger losers over the long term for the bettor.

Nevertheless, it can be fun to sprinkle a few dollars on a few parlays, and you’ll probably even win one here and there.

Shorter parlays give you a more realistic chance. Parlays of six, seven, eight legs are akin to lottery tickets – you’re unlikely to hit them, but if you do, it will make your week, or even your season. Plus, it’s way more fun sweating your NFL parlay than to play the lottery.

Pick one you like: Best Sportsbooks Apps for NFL Parlay Betting 

Correlated Two-Leg Parlay Picks for NFL Week 4

Yes, parlays usually increase a bookmaker’s edge, but if a bettor can successfully correlate both legs of a two-leg parlay, the advantage can be flipped to the player’s side.

A two-leg parlay pairing an NFL side and total in the same game could make for a correlated parlay. Against the standard -110 vig, a two-team parlay pays out at about +264 odds – a winning $100 two-teamer results in a $264 profit (plus the return of your original $100 bet, of course).

The Detroit Lions are 3-0 against the spread this season and 3-0 to the Over. Had you seen this coming (impossible, we know) and played a Lions/Over parlay each Sunday since Week 1, you’d be up $792.

Now, we’re not suggesting necessarily to jump on that trend now, but if you are buying it, the Lions are -4 at home vs. the Seahawks in Week 4, and the total is 48. A two-teamer of Lions -4/Over 48 pays out at +264 odds with a Detroit win of say, 31-24.

We’re using the Lions just as an example (by the way, Detroit is 10-2 ATS since Week 10 of last season, but they haven’t been favored since they played Washington in Week 10 of the 2020 season!)

Our point is, if you have a good feeling for how a game is going to go, pairing a side and a total in a two-leg parlay is a sound approach.

Think the Bills will outlast the Ravens in a high-scoring game in Week 4? Play a Buffalo -3/Over 51 parlay at DraftKings. Or will the Bears keep it close against the Giants in a Sunday slugfest? Try a Chicago +3.5/Under 39.5 parlay at BetRivers.

Also read: NFL Week 4 Survivor Picks

Bet the Losers in a Two-Team Parlay?

After three weeks of the season, two winless teams remain – the Houston Texans and Las Vegas Raiders. BetMGM dropped this trend to consider:

There’s logic to betting “bad” teams against the spread. When teams lose, the spread tends to move in the other direction. At some point, the value ends up with the team on the winless streak.

nfl week 4 parlay picks raiders
Maxx Crosby and the Raiders fit a trend NFL parlay bettors may want to consider for Week 4 (AP Photo/John Amis)

If you believe value is showing up in Week 4 on these two laggards, FanDuel is dealing Houston +5.5 and Las Vegas -2.5 (-114) for a potential parlay payout at +258 odds.

Register and Bet: Click to Claim $1,000 No Sweat First Bet at FanDuel

Three-Team Moneyline Parlays for NFL Week 4

Point spreads make betting on NFL games awfully difficult. It’s much easier to pick the winner of the game, rather than worrying about the favorite covering the spread.

This truism makes moneyline parlays attractive to some bettors. Grouping favorites together in mutli-team bets can put you in a plus-money situation – that means, potentially profiting more than you risk.

Here’s a potential three-team moneyline parlay for Sunday’s NFL action (odds from DraftKings):

  • Eagles -275 (vs. Jaguars)
  • Steelers -165 (vs. Jets)
  • Packers -460 (vs. Patriots)

Using our handy parlay calculator, we find if all three of these favorites win, our $100 bet results in a $166 profit ($266 would be returned to you, including your $100 bet).

Three-teamers, even with all favorites, are not easy to hit, and yes, sportsbooks price the payout so that the edge is still in their favor. But this approach allows a bettor to see plus-money returns even on large favorites.

Hey, if the Eagles and Steelers take care of business in the early games, you’d be feeling pretty good about your $166 odds on the Packers – the largest favorite on the Week 4 board – finishing the deal against the Patriots in the late window.

Pick three or more teams you like to win their games Sunday, then check out their moneyline odds here, and use our parlay calculator to see how much a bet would pay.

NFL Week 4 Lottery Tickets

The more legs you add to your parlay, the smaller chance you have at winning the bet. Of course, it also means, if you get lucky and all the legs come through, you’re cashing a big ticket.

And as sportsbooks and winning bettors are happy to publicize, these babies hit sometimes. Last Sunday, someone in Iowa turned $100 in to $17K at Caesars.

Whether it’s parlays or straight bets, everyone should bet within their own means, and this guy’s means are way above most of ours. Still, congrats Marco!

If you want to take a shot on your own six- or nine-teamer have at it. Our recommendation, though, is to make these types of bets a very small percentage of your bankroll

Play around with our parlay calculator to compute potential payouts.

NFL Week 4 Same-Game Parlays

Same-game parlays have become popular ways to play. Sportsbooks love pushing these – again, because they are handsomely profitable long term for the house. While SGPs can be correlated, books price them accordingly and even heavier in their own advantage.

Here are a few SGPs that paid off for lucky bettors last week.

And here’s an example of how to correlate a SGP for the Jags-Eagles game this week (odds from FanDuel):

  • Eagles -6.5 (-110)
  • Eagles moneyline -290 (if the Eagles cover the 6.5, they’ll obviously cash the ML, too)
  • Jalen Hurts anytime TD scorer -110 (if Jalen Hurts scores a TD, the Eagles are more likely to win the game and cover the spread)
  • Eagles Team Total Over 26.5 -116 (Hurst scoring a TD helps the Eagles get Over the team total; if the Eagles go Over their team total, they’re more likely to cover the spread)

To be clear, we are not necessarily suggesting you make this play. The recommendation is that if you are going to bet a SGP, look for outcomes that correlate with one another. A first-half bet on Jacksonville, for example, would not correlate with the above plays.

But even if all the legs on your SGP correlate, the sportsbook usually still has a big edge. If the house did not have the edge, the book would not offer these types of bets.

Also check: Super Bowl 57 odds

About the Author
Marcus DiNitto

Marcus DiNitto

Sr. News Editor
Marcus DiNitto is Senior News Editor for Gaming Today. He has been managing editor at national sports websites SportsBusiness Daily, Sporting News, and The Linemakers, as well as with licensed sportsbook operator USA Sports Gaming. Marcus graduated from the University of Wisconsin-Madison and earned his MBA from the University of North Carolina-Charlotte.

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