The “running backs don’t matter” crowd can sit down and shut up this week. We’re featuring a “ground & pound” approach with our Week 10 player props & TD bets. Bettors willing to wake up early can catch burgeoning rookie Kenneth Walker III and declining Leonard Fournette take the field (pitch?) in Munich, Germany on Sunday morning.
Bettors are encouraged to get into the habit of shopping for the best betting odds and lines. It’s often easy to find small but significant pockets of betting value for your preferred wagers. That was the case as we researched our Week 10 player props & TD bets.
Week 10 Player Prop Picks & TD Wagers
Kenneth Walker III: TD (-105, BetMGM) | Over 78.5 Rushing Yards (-114, FanDuel)
Walker is off and running. He’s averaging 22 carries per game since taking over the starting role in Week 6. He’s ripping off 4.8 yards per tote and has six touchdowns over that span, so he’s entrenched as the Seahawks’ primary weapon on the ground. Tampa Bay, traditionally stout against the run, is not the same brick wall they’ve been in recent seasons. Even if Walker’s efficiency dips in Week 10, bettors can bank on his volume in the Seahawks’ run-heavy offense.
Leonard Fournette: Under 43.5 Rushing Yards (-115, BetMGM)
Fournette hasn’t experienced a sharp decrease in playing time, which makes his recent production more concerning. He has 39 opportunities — carries plus targets — total over the past three weeks. Rookie Rachaad White has 26 over that span, and there are suggestions that he’ll continue to usurp a greater portion of the backfield pie. The Seahawks can credit their surprising 2022 season to a solid defense and if Fournette is going to continue being used so lightly on the ground, it’s difficult to trust him (and his 3.3 yards per carry) to hit the Over in this spot.
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Saquon Barkley: Under 21.5 Rush Attempts (-105, DraftKings)
The Giants’ -215 moneyline odds imply a 68.25% chance of victory on Sunday. On the surface, that suggests a game script in which Barkley is taking the air out of the ball to close the game. That can still be true even if Barkley stays Under 22 carries. He hit that rushing-attempt mark a modest three times this season, thanks, in part, to his work as a pass-catcher (3.5 receptions per game). Another factor to consider is the (modest) emergence of backup running back Matt Breida (20 opportunities since Week 5) and rookie wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson (98 snaps in Weeks 7-8). Those two can chip in just enough to keep Barkley’s workload from becoming too hefty on Sunday.
Week 10 odds & lines: Find the best bets for this week’s slate of NFL contests
Travis Etienne: Over 100.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-119, Caesars)
Etienne has been on fire, eclipsing 101 total yards in each contest since Week 5. He’s averaging 6.1 yards per touch, so he’s able to win on efficiency. He’s also averaging 25.3 opportunities per game since Week 7. Volume plus the explosiveness to deliver chunk gains is the equation we’re betting on when eyeing the Over in this spot.
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