NFL Playoff Betting Trends and Divisional Round Props: ‘Public is Going to Bet Chalk’

All it takes is one.

Gamblers embracing just four NFL Playoff games this Divisional Round weekend may load up on fewer bets, enhancing the importance of their favorite angles.

One well-played edge, regardless of props or spread line, determines profitability.

Here’s a look around at early betting trends ahead of this slate of NFL Playoff games, with a different spotlight provided by various sportsbooks.

How Bettors are Weighing in at DraftKings

Start with a weekend perspective by one bookmaker. Johnny Avello, director of race and sportsbook operations for DraftKings, shared his four-game overview with Gaming Today.

“I think the general public is going to bet chalk this week,” Avello said of expected support for the favored Philadelphia Eagles, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, and Kansas City Chiefs.

“You start that out by looking at the Chiefs. They have so many weapons, and it’s Andy Reid, so you know it’s points, points, points. That total of 53 is a lot to be scored and Kansas City usually does well in those kinds of games.”

Avello said Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts is the X factor whenever he plays. With Hurts expected to be 95% healthy, X may mark the spot for the Eagles.

“The Giants faced Kirk Cousins last week, who is slow,” Avello noted. “This is a totally different challenge for them with the speed and mobility of Hurts. Now, the Giants played a great game last week (beating the Minnesota Vikings 31-24) but these Eagles, with Hurts and that strong defense, are a much better opponent.”

The Eagles also get solid tackle Lane Johnson back at about 90% after he missed four weeks.

Avello considers Cole Beasley a potential difference-maker for Buffalo. He notched a touchdown in the team’s shaky 34-31 triumph over the Miami Dolphins last week.

The Cincinnati Bengals, meanwhile, dodged a bullet in outlasting the Baltimore Ravens, 24-17.

Avello believes the Giants-Eagles on Saturday night will be wagered upon more heavily than the Jaguars-Chiefs game Saturday afternoon.

He expects both the Bills-Bengals and Niners-Cowboys to draw heavy Sunday action, both for in-game wagering and props.

Public betting on the moneyline, has been heavy behind the favored 49ers, Eagles, and Chiefs. The Bengals are the only exception, taking 65% of the moneyline handle at +190.

Spread betting handle is split.

The Niners, with 72% betting handle, join the Chiefs at 66% to represent the favorites.

The Giants (65%) and Bengals (67%) attracted dog bettors.

What the public agrees on most is that there will be points in the Giants-Eagles game. The Over 48 is endorsed by 83% of the bettors.

FanDuel Playoff Prop Bets Accent Entire Schedule

These prop bets bring all teams into play as an interesting side bet.

Highest-Scoring Team

• Kansas City +220
• Philadelphia +350
• Buffalo +500
• San Francisco +760
• Cincinnati +1000
• Dallas +1200
• Jacksonville +1200
• New York Giants +1700

Lowest-Scoring Team

• New York Giants +330
• Dallas +380
• Cincinnati +460
• Jacksonville +510
• San Francisco +700
• Buffalo +1000
• Philadelphia +1300
• ‘Kansas City +2100

Prop bets can be even more dramatic than the spread.

FanDuel bettors obtained a solid +1000 for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to be the lowest-scoring team of Super Wild Card Weekend, and they paid by scoring only 14 points against the Cowboys.

But it was a nail-biter.

Dallas authored an end-zone pick and turned Tampa Bay away on first-and-goal from the 2 in the fourth quarter.

More FanDuel Divisional Round Props

Here are a few more exotic wagering options to consider:

• Each team to have at least one passing touchdown? +360
• Each team to record a field goal +360
• Each team to notch one rushing touchdown +100
• Points in every quarter in every game +145

Here’s a game-by-game breakdown at top sportsbooks in order of the schedule.

Jaguars vs. Chiefs (-8.5): DraftKings Props

Nothing goes exactly to form, especially in the playoffs.

It’s not surprising, for instance, to see a quarterback take matters into his own hands and score, given the win-or-go-home scenario. Think of Dak Prescott’s fourth-down bootleg to paydirt, one of the biggest plays in the Cowboys’ 31-14 triumph over the Bucs last week.

Patrick Mahomes is +320 to tally and +2000 to score first. Trevor Lawrence is +360 to score and +3000 to tally first.

Another angle is that some unsung hero often scores and sometimes does it first. Bettors try to find that player somewhere in the big list of candidates.

Here are DraftKings’ opening odds at touchdown scorers, both first and anytime.

Most anytime TD scorers pay between +100 and +200. First-time scorers may be where the money is at, but that’s hard to pinpoint.

• Travis Kelce +550 to tally first, -150 anytime.
• Jerick McKinnon +700, -115
• Isiah Pacheco +750, -105
• Travis Etienne +950, -120
• JuJu Smith-Schuster +1200, +170
• Kadarius Toney +1200, +170
• Marquez Valdes-Scantling +1400, +230
• Christian Kirk +1500, +145

The overview reveals something unique about the Chiefs. They obtain production from role players who had larger roles on other teams.

Smith-Schuster was one of the deep threats for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Toney was a first-round pick by the Giants in 2021, taken just a few spots below DeVonta Smith. He’s done little, but here’s a recent first-round pick as a spot player.

Valdes-Scantling was a notable target for Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers.

All could have made the case that they don’t get the ball enough. But they instead blend as a complementary group. That’s why Kansas City had the depth to overcome the departure of speedster Tyreek Hill.

The group also confounds bettors. Besides Kelce, it’s hard to find a consistent first-touchdown threat. Any one of these receivers can do it.

Giants vs. Eagles (-7.5): FanDuel Props

The book reported that 62% of the spread-bet handle was on the Giants at midweek, indicating a stabilizing of sentiment. Giants bettors leaped on the +8.5 opening, and Eagles backers chimed in at +7, driving the line in between.

Here are some considerations for touchdown scorers, anytime and first.

• Jalen Hurts -125 anytime, +600 first
• A.J. Brown -105, +650
• Saquon Barkley -110, +800
• Miles Sanders +105, +700
• DeVonta Smith +175, +900
• Dallas Goedert +1200

Bengals vs. Bills (-5.5): Caesars Sportsbook Props

There’s a hook right away. On Wednesday, Caesars was the only major book dealing this game at 5.5 rather than the industry-wide 5. That’s an edge right off the bat for Bengals bettors.

Many individual props featured minus numbers and were unattractive, but there were some exceptions.

First score of the game

• Buffalo touchdown +135
• Cincinnati touchdown +220
• Buffalo field goal +390
• Cincinnati field goal +400
• Buffalo safety +4900
• Cincinnati safety +5000

Cowboys vs. 49ers (-3.5): DraftKings Props

Touchdown scorers, both first and anytime:

• Christian McCaffrey +500 first, -155 anytime
• Deebo Samuel +900 +130
• George Kittle +950, +150
• Zeke Elliott +1100, +145
• CeeDee Lamb +1200, +165
• Tony Pollard +1200, +155
• Dalton Schultz +1500, +220