The large majority of the 12 Bookies Battle playoff contestants are riding obvious closing line value heading into the opening weekend of the 2023 NFL Playoffs. A few competitors are going against the grain.
The latter group is employing a bold strategy. Anticipating the consensus would be looking to take advantage of stale lines, the contrarians could be rewarded with early leads in the postseason portion of our contest, which pays $2,000 to the winner.
Upon midweek news that Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa and the Ravens’ Lamar Jackson are expected to miss their respective Wild Card games, the betting market moved starkly against these sides since contest lines were posted Tuesday.
Bengals -6.5 is on 10 of 12 Bookies Battle sheets this week; Bills -10.5 is on nine.
Based on action instead of injuries, more subtle line moves have occurred on the NFC side of the bracket, as underdogs Tampa Bay and Seattle have both seen adjustments in their direction. The Bucs and Seahawks are the picks of 10 and nine playoff pool participants, respectively.
Expert Consensus NFL Playoff Picks, Bookies Battle 2022, Wild Card Round
| Team | Contest line | Friday line | Opp. | # of Picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | -6.5 | -9.5 | BAL | 10 |
| TB | +3 | +2.5 | DAL | 10 |
| BUF | -10.5 | -13.5 | MIA | 9 |
| NYG | +3 | +3 | MIN | 9 |
| SEA | +10 | +9.5 | SF | 8 |
There’s an even 6-6 split on Chargers vs. Jaguars.
Boldest of the Bold
Socrates Cherry III, from Aliante Casino in Las Vegas, is on the opposite side of the line move in three of the five games (Vikings -3 has remained unchanged), putting his chips on Jaguars +1, Dolphins +10.5, and Baltimore +6.5. Socrates finished tied for 15th in the regular-season standings, but earned a spot in the playoffs by virtue of his third-quarter mini-contest victory.
Three contestants eschew closing-line value in two of the five games – fourth-quarter winner Rex Beyers (PlayUp), Craig Steppach (Gold Strike), and Casey Lewless (Margaritaville Bossier City).
Two players – 2022 Bookies Battle champ Robert Kowalski and first-quarter winner Casey Degnon (Westgate SuperBook) – are on the “right side” of the line moves in all five of these Wild Card contests.
You can see all the picks here.
Bookies Battle is an NFL pick ‘em contest among bookmakers throughout the sports betting industry, including some of the most expert oddsmakers in the business.
It’s not necessarily advisable to follow these picks blindly, particularly when a line has moved off its contest number. Laying Bengals -6.5 is a far different proposition than spotting the Ravens +9.5, for example.
Also Read>>> Bookmaker Spotlight Q&As: Circa’s Jeff Benson | Westgate’s Jeff Sherman | South Point’s Chris Andrews | BetMGM’s Jason Scott | Bally Bet’s Jay Rood | Station’s Jason McCormick | Golden Nugget’s Tony Miller | Baldini’s Robert Kowalski | Westgate’s Casey Degnon | Rivers’ Kyle Wainscott | Aliante’s Socrates Cherry III
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