We’re down to the final four, as the NFL’s NFC and AFC Championship games are slated for this Sunday.
Aside from the Bills’ rather convincing home loss to Cincinnati on Sunday, there wasn’t much in the way of surprises in the Divisional round. We’ve got a rematch between the Bengals and Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium. In the NFC, the two best teams face off for conference supremacy, when the 49ers travel to Philadelphia to face the Eagles.
It’s time to set the table and examine NFL Playoff odds for Championship Sunday.
Championship Sunday Odds: Home Teams Short Favorites
Here are NFL Playoff odds for the NFC Championship and AFC Championship from the best sports betting apps.
|Sun (1/29) @ 3:05pm ET||49ers||+125||+2000||+1250||+4500||–||+1700||+15000|
|Sun (1/29) @ 6:40pm ET||Bengals||+100||+1000||+800||+4500||–||+900||+600|
|Sun (1/29) @ 3:05pm ET||49ers||+2.5 +100||+24.5 -5000||+24.5 -250||+24.0 +700||–||+23.5 +600||+24.0 0|
|Eagles||-2.5 -120||-24.5 +1400||-24.5 +185||-24.0 -1250||–||-23.5 -1250||-24.0 0|
|Sun (1/29) @ 6:40pm ET||Bengals||+1.5 -110||-2.5 -115||+2.5 +105||+2.5 -110||–||+1.5 -114||+2.5 -105|
|Chiefs||-1.5 -110||+2.5 -115||-2.5 -141||-2.5 -120||–||-1.5 -114||-2.5 -120|
|Sun (1/29) @ 3:05pm ET||49ers||u45 -110||u42.5 -141||u38.5 -227||–||–||u42.5 -156||u38.5 0|
|Eagles||o45 -110||o42.5 +110||o38.5 +165||–||–||o42.5 +120||o38.5 0|
|Sun (1/29) @ 6:40pm ET||Bengals||o48.5 -110||o43.5 +130||o45.5 -115||–||–||o47.5 -110||o43.5 +100|
|Chiefs||u48.5 -110||u43.5 -161||u45.5 -110||–||–||u47.5 -118||u43.5 -125|
Odds from DraftKings for 2023 NFL Playoffs
Here’s a look at this weekend’s NFL Playoff odds from DraftKings:
Sunday, Jan. 29
49ers at Eagles (-2.5, 45.5)
After the NFL Wild Card round produced games that went 5-1 to the Over — 6-0 if Dallas kicker Brett Maher makes one of his four missed extra points against the Buccaneers — this past weekend’s Divisional games went 4-0 to the Under.
San Francisco upended Dallas, 19-12, in a defensive struggle on Sunday. The 49ers contained QB Dak Prescott and mates en route to their third NFC Championship game in the past four years. The Eagles dismantled the Giants, 38-7, on Saturday night in a game that was never in doubt. That sets up this marquee matchup at Lincoln Financial Field. Kickoff is scheduled for 3 p.m. on Sunday.
San Francisco owns the best ATS record (13-6) of all four teams left in the playoffs that have played at least 19 games. The 49ers are riding a 12-game winning streak, and they have gone 10-2 ATS during that stretch.
San Francisco QB Brock Purdy failed to throw for a TD in the win against Dallas. As important, Purdy did not throw any interceptions while passing for 214 yards. Veteran QB Prescott was picked off twice by the San Fran defense.
The Eagles (15-3 SU, 9-9 ATS) benefited from a fine performance by QB Jalen Hurts in their victory over the Giants. Hurts, who showed no ill effects from the shoulder injury that dogged him late in the regular season, accounted for three touchdowns (two through the air and one on the ground). Philadelphia’s trio of running backs — Kenneth Gainwell, Miles Sanders, and Boston Scott — rolled up 234 rushing yards and added a pair of TDs.
San Francisco will provide a much stiffer test defensively. The 49ers were the NFL’s No. 1 defense during the regular season, allowing 300.6 yards per game and 16.3 points per game. The defensive unit yielded only 77.7 yards rushing per contest.
Philly, with the league’s second-ranked defense, was nearly as stingy. The Eagles gave up 301.5 yards per game and 20.2 points per game.
Key Trends: The total has gone Under in four of Philadelphia’s last five games. Does that mean we have another lower-scoring affair in the offing on Sunday? Not necessarily. The Over has cashed in four of San Francisco’s last five tilts.
Bengals at Chiefs (-1, 47.5)
How about that gasp heard ’round the world when Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes went down (temporarily) with a high ankle sprain on Saturday against Jacksonville? It appeared that the season might be lost, and plenty of people were advocating live bets on the Jaguars at that point.
MRI today confirmed that Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes suffered a high ankle sprain during Saturday’s win over the Jaguars, per league source. “Nothing more than that,” said one source, and Mahomes has said he plans to play in next Sunday’s AFC Championship Game.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) January 22, 2023
At DraftKings, the game opened KC -1.5 and moved slightly toward the visitors. This near pick ’em spread would lead you to believe that a somewhat hampered Mahomes factored into it. But the fact that he returned to the game and performed capably (at 75%?) against Jacksonville bodes well for this weekend.
TE Travis Kelce grabbed a playoff-record 14 catches for 98 yards and two TDs against the Jaguars. Which tight end held the previous record? That would be Kelce with 13 in the 2020 AFC Championship game against Buffalo.
Kansas City, again with an embarrassment of riches on offense even without Tyreek Hill, is playing in its fifth consecutive AFC Championship game at home. There’s also the payback factor to consider after the Bengals won last season’s AFC title tilt, 27-24, in overtime after coming back from an 18-point deficit.
From the get-go, Cincinnati was in full control of Sunday’s game at Buffalo in the snow. The Bengals are thriving even without the services of three starters on the offensive line. When Joe Burrow makes it a point of getting the ball out quickly — most always in recent weeks — the Bengals remain lethal through the air. Burrow is now 5-1 in the playoffs, and a remarkable 3-0 on the road. Fun fact: Burrow has never lost to Mahomes.
Cincy’s defense won the physical battle against Buffalo, flustered Bills QB Josh Allen, and held WR Stefon Diggs to four catches for 35 yards. If it turns in another such stout performance against the Chiefs, there’s a good chance the Bengals can win their second straight AFC Championship.
In Week 13, Cincinnati traveled to Arrowhead and again dealt the Chiefs a 27-24 loss. Sensing a theme here? That was part of Cincy’s current 10-game winning streak during which it covered eight of those games (both ATS losses were vs. the Ravens). This Sunday’s AFC Championship game has all the makings of a playoff classic.
Key Trends: The Chiefs are 2-7 ATS at home this season including the 27-20 playoff win over Jacksonville, which got the back-door cover with a late FG on Saturday. The Under has cashed in all of Cincy’s last five road games in the playoffs.