Long live the streaks, a staple surrounding the Week 10 betting landscape.
The Philadelphia Eagles bring the league’s lone 8-0 mark into tonight’s home clash against the Washington Commanders. A victory matches their projected win total of nine at the start of the season across major sportsbooks. At -11, they are expected to romp.
The Minnesota Vikings, Miami Dolphins (with Tua Tagovailoa), and the Tennessee Titans are rolling with seven straight victories either on the moneyline or spread for nationwide gamblers.
On the other end, the Green Bay Packers shelved a five-game losing streak, and the Detroit Lions snapped a 13-game road winless trend on Sunday.
Here’s a look at wagering outcomes, with betting percentages from DraftKings.
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Triple 7’s: Three Teams That Have Gone Streaking
The Dolphins are 7-0 in games started and finished by Tagovailoa. Their 39-17 triumph over the Cleveland Browns not only extended that streak. Their ability to cover -3.5 rewarded 72% of the spread tickets while the spread handle was split 50-50.
Little did winning ticketholders know that the 7-3 Dolphins would end the day in first place in the AFC East. That links to another trend, with the Vikings running their win streak to seven after a thrilling and frenetic 33-30 overtime triumph against the Buffalo Bills. That dropped Buffalo to 6-3, and a game behind the Dolphins.
The Vikings became 8-1 and rewarded a big chunk of the betting market. Minnesota returned +225 on the moneyline, endorsed by 55% of the handle.
Vikings bettors had been playing them all week at odds of between +3.5 and + 8.5. Bills quarterback Josh Allen, worth anywhere between 3-5 points to the betting line, had not been expected to play. That was reflected in the line of Buffalo -3.5 late in the week.
When it was announced Saturday that he would play, the DraftKings line shot up to -6.5. The Vikings still had 66% of the spread-bet handle Sunday morning and then they won on the moneyline in improbable fashion.
Bettors see-sawed through late imminent victories on both sides. The swings included a 4th-and-18 conversion by Vikings receiver Justin Jefferson, the Vikings being denied inside the 1, the Bills fumbling to create a Minnesota touchdown on the next play and then authoring a drive that forced overtime.
It wasn’t decided until Minnesota picked Allen off in the end zone, thwarting a looming tie or Bills victory. For Vikings bettors, this was all about faith. On two occasions, Next Gen Stats had Minnesota’s win probability at 1%.
On the flip side, Buffalo had this game in its pocket until blowing it. A string of multi-legged parlays also went up in flames with their loss. No wonder gambling tests one’s blood pressure. Fans may consider this the game of the year, but bettors viewed it as Palpitation City.
Another Lucky 7 involves the Titans. Tennessee covered for the seventh straight week, outlasting the Denver Broncos, 17-10. The Titans, who have not scored more than 24 points in a game, held their third opponent to just 10 points.
The betting handle supported them at 58%. So did backers of the stout Titans defense. This was the lowest total (39) on the DraftKings board and yet was supported by 64% handle on the Under, which cashed for the sixth straight game.
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The End of an Ugly Streak
The Packers woke up and the slick contrarians cashed in. Green Bay’s 31-28 overtime triumph over the Dallas Cowboys rewarded the 20% of moneyline handle at +165. Those bets appeared wasted when Green Bay trailed 28-14 in the fourth quarter and stared at a sixth consecutive defeat.
But Aaron Rodgers rallied the Pack to two fourth-quarter touchdowns and the game-winning overtime field goal.
If Christian Watson parlays his three-touchdown performance here, Rodgers has found his next Davante Adams.
The minority also ruled the spread realm, as only 36% of the handle backed Green Bay at +4. Rodgers played with fire amid Mike McCarthy’s return. It was hard to place a number on the intangible of Rodgers rising to the occasion in front of the coach whom he had won a Super Bowl with in 2010.
Rodgers showed up just in time. The Packers are on life support, having two more losses than the San Francisco 49ers for the final playoff spot. But bettors can expect them to at least show up for Thursday’s game against the Titans and a Nov. 27 matchup in Philadelphia.
Wake Up Call, Version 1
Two straight wins in the victory-challenged NFC South are monumental. That’s what Tom Brady and the Bucs obtained in Munich with their 21-16 win and cover against the Seattle Seahawks at -2.5.
Tampa Bay was the worst rushing team in the NFL before notching 161 yards here. That’s about 100 yards more than its season average.
The bettors were divided on this game, with 52% of the handle backing Seattle at +2.5. Tampa Bay, at 5-5, padded its tiebreaker lead in the division to a full game.
Wake Up Call, Version 2
The Indianapolis Colts fired Frank Reich in time to make a run if the team is going to click under new coach Jeff Saturday. The Colts prevailed 25-20 over the Las Vegas Raiders at +4 and rewarded the hunches of the betting minority.
Only 19% of the handle was on the Colts at +4, and 22% of the moneyline handle backed them at +175. This was the largest disappointment for the betting majority, as 81% of the handle supported the Raiders at -4.
Saturday made one good move, putting Matt Ryan back in charge of the offense. Ryan was sharp against the Raiders.
The Colts, at 4-5-1, remain on the outskirts of playoff contention. The Raiders, at 2-7, are rapidly becoming the NFL’s biggest underachiever.
Where the Public Nailed it on Totals
The best performance by Over bettors came in the Bears-Lions contest, in which 78% of the DraftKings handle was on the Over 48.5. Another big public victory was the 77% betting handle on the Browns-Dolphins going Over 49.5.
Late Betting Movement – A Split
Late Houston Texans money pushed their line against the New York Giants from +6.5 to +5 on Sunday. But the Giants won by 8, 24-16, denying the late bettors.
Pittsburgh Steelers action drove them from +2.5 on Saturday to + 1 Sunday at DraftKings. The sentiment was prophetic as the Steelers won outright, 20-10.
Kicking Themselves…
Bettors caught some bad breaks with kicking problems on Sunday. Jacksonville Jaguars gamblers who took them + 8.5 were burned by two missed Riley Patterson field goals in the 27-17 setback. Even one conversion would have brought them the cover.
Chicago bettors who took them on the moneyline and -2.5 got a bad break with the Bears missing a PAT after Justin Fields’ electrifying 67-yard touchdown gave them a 30-24 lead.
They could have used that point after the Lions came back to steal this game, 31-30. Had the conversion been made, the Bears would have gained a shot to cash both tickets in overtime.
Over bettors were scorched in the first game of the week. Three missed extra points — two by Atlanta and one by Carolina — turned an Over into an Under. Carolina prevailed 25-15 with the total at 41.5.
…And Killing Themselves
The Bears played well enough to obtain a 24-10 fourth-quarter lead against the Lions. But they sagged after snaring a pivotal interception deep in their territory to stop a Lions’ fourth-quarter drive. They were flagged for a penalty, giving Detroit the ball on the Chicago 9. It was Chicago’s third penalty on the drive.
One play later, the Lions had a rushing touchdown from D’Andre Swift. One series later, Fields threw off his back foot and Detroit produced a game-tying pick-six.
Yes, Fields had two highlight-reel touchdown runs, but he underperformed in crunch time. The team also had 86 yards in penalties. It was a classic case of a team that didn’t know how to close the show.
In-game bettors who took a hunch on Detroit got +250 on them when the Lions trailed 30-24.
Caesars Sportsbook Report
The Under continued cashing at a prolific rate in Week 10. The 8-5 mark on Sunday meant that the Unders are 87-60-2 according to the book.
The Week 10 performance added to what’s already been a banner season for the Under. The 79-55-2 mark through nine weeks was the highest percentage through the first nine weeks of an NFL season since 1991, when they were 71-42-2 (.628). There has yet to be a week this season in which there were more Overs than Unders, per Caesars.
Since at least 1980, there has not been a year when Unders did not have a winning week before Week 10, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
The Over nonetheless remains popular with Caesars Sportsbook bettors, attracting the majority of the handle in seven of the 12 games this past Sunday.
The Under performance is interesting because there are few games posted above 50. Only one was put up this past week.
That was the Kansas City Chiefs-Jacksonville Jaguars game, set at 51. It went Under.
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FanDuel Betting Highlights
The Dolphins set the mark for most points in the league Sunday and will return +1000 to the bettors if their 39-point total is still the standard after Monday Night.
The Dolphins look like they will be in contention for this bet all year. The book returned a payout of +420 for every team in the league to score a touchdown in the 1 p.m. games. Low-scoring teams like the Denver Broncos and Houston Texans always weigh into this equation.
In most weeks, there is usually one team that prevents this bet from paying out. But this week, the bettors cashed in.
An overtime toss by Rodgers to Aaron Lazard paid off on another unique prop. Davante Adams, CeeDee Lamb, and Allen Lazard all needed to reach 40 yards.
Lazard was sitting on nine yards until overtime, when he completed a 36-yard catch and run with Rodgers. That brought him to 45 yards, and the bettors into the winner’s circle at +175.
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PointsBet: Final Seconds Always Matter
Sure, the Cardinals-Rams contest was already decided with a few seconds to go. The Cardinals had a 27-10 lead, the moneyline and spread verdicts in their pockets.
But there was the issue of the over-under. And when John Wolford hit Van Jefferson for a score with seven seconds remaining, the Over 38 was a winner.
So was the Over 43.5, the original line, after the extra point was kicked. Some bettors were unable to cash out before the game because the news that neither Matthew Stafford nor Kyler Murray would play came about an hour before kickoff. Some gamblers were stuck with that number.
Others may have taken the opportunity to cash out. Another group may have taken the new total at 38, riding on Wolford and Colt McCoy of the Cardinals.
With both lines, the verdict was decided with seven seconds remaining. The final seconds of a game are usually important to somebody.
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