As one of the poor, unfortunate souls already eliminated, far be it from me to preach NFL Survivor strategy. However, I’ll continue to take a look at the weekly landscape and offer some thoughts for those of you who remain. We’re down to the wire here, with only 2-3% of entrants left to make their NFL Week 10 Survivor Picks.
Last week, I suggested playing it safe with one of the three heavy favorites. The Eagles coasted to victory over the Texans, the Chiefs squeaked by the Titans, and the Bills? Well. I hope you didn’t take the Bills.
If you’ve survived through nine weeks, it’s likely you’ve burned most of the good teams, which means it might be time to get a little creative.
Here are your best NFL Week 10 Survivor Picks.
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NFL Survivor Strategies Recap
There are two basic strategies to consider when making NFL Survivor picks.
Strategy #1 – Survive And Advance
This strategy is simple. Take the best team available and hope they win.
Strategy #2 – Contrarian Picks With Value
For larger pools, more thinking is required. Simply picking the heaviest favorite each week isn’t going to cut it when you’re trying to outlast up to one thousand opponents. Your goal should be to target less popular options that are strong favorites.
Since we’re down to the last few remaining tickets, the risk is amplified by implementing Strategy #2. Unless you’re completely stuck for teams, there isn’t enough justification to go crazy with your picks.
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NFL Survivor Week 10: Two Clear Favorites
Philadelphia Eagles | Kansas City Chiefs
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before.
The Eagles (-11 at home vs. Commanders on MNF) and Chiefs (-9.5 at home vs. Jaguars) are two of the three teams that have separated themselves from the pack this season. Both teams stand to be heavy favorites for each of their remaining games and are viable options each week.
Of the two, the Eagles are the better option in Week 10. With only an estimated 5% usage rate in your average pool, the Eagles offer some sneaky contrarian upside. Compare that with a much larger 30% usage rate for the Chiefs. We’re splitting hairs, as both teams offer tremendous upside this week. If you’ve lasted this far without using them, either team is a strong candidate to consider.
Remember – you don’t want to wait too long to use the best teams. There are more than a few entrants left who haven’t used the Bills and must be kicking themselves right now.
Also read: Risers and Fallers in Super Bowl 57 odds
NFL Week 10 Survivor Pick: Popular Pick To Avoid
New York Giants
The New York Giants host the Houston Texans at MetLife Stadium this week, in what appears to be an easy win for the home team. I would avoid using the New York Giants this week, and here’s why:
The Giants (-4.5 vs. Houston) are projected to be the most heavily used team in NFL Survivor Pools in Week 10. A whopping 40% of remaining players are likely to pick the Giants this week. It’s rarely a good strategy to use the most popular pick in a given week, and you should go chalk only with an elite team. That’s why I don’t mind the 30% of you picking the Chiefs, as they’re a proven, top-caliber team. But the Giants? I don’t see it.
This team is simply not as good as their record indicates. Sure, they’ve opened their season 6-2 and are only two games behind the Eagles in the NFC East. And yes, they are a better football team than the Terrible Texans. I honestly don’t hate the idea of betting them to cover the -4.5 point spread!
But for your NFL Survivor life? That’s a completely different story.
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Aside from running back Saquon Barkley, who has looked phenomenal this season, this Giants offense has not performed well. They’re averaging fewer than 160 passing yards per game, which ranks 29th overall in the NFL. And despite their 6-2 record, this offense is being out-gained by opponents 345 to 320 yards per game on average. Each of their six wins has been by a single possession, which means New York has played a ton of close games that could have gone either way.
Admittedly, the Texans are not good, and fading them has been a great NFL Survivor strategy so far. But with almost 40% of entrants picking the Giants this week? It’s a stayaway. Particularly when there’s a better, sneakier option on the board.
Read more: NFL Week 10 Betting Tips & Strategies
NFL Week 10 Survivor Pick: Sneaky Pick With Value
Las Vegas Raiders
If you were able to sniff out this sneaky pick based on the cover photo, well, congratulations. My NFL Week 10 Survivor Pick is the Las Vegas Raiders. They’re 6-point favorites hosting the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.
The main reason I love this pick? The Colts have hinted they’re deliberately trying to tank the remainder of their season. Frank Reich was fired as head coach over the weekend, and football analyst Jeff Saturday has been brought on as interim head coach. Saturday, a former Pro Bowl center, has been working at ESPN since 2013. His coaching credentials…
*checks notes*
…hmmmm. I can’t find any coaching credentials.
*checks other notes*
Oh. He doesn’t have any! Great work everyone.
Saturday coaches his first NFL game on six days notice and leans on his television production experience to throw together a game plan.
He’ll have his work cut out for him against the Raiders, who have gotten off to fast starts this season. And with Colts starting quarterback Sam Ehlinger, who has demonstrated issues throwing the ball, it could be a disaster if the Colts fall behind early. In his last outing, Ehlinger completed only 51% of his passes against the Patriots. That stat is even worse than it looks, since most of those throws were short routes and dump-off passes!
And here’s a hot take for you: I would argue these 2-6 Raiders are just as good as the 6-2 Giants. There, I said it.
If the Giants are the NFL team that’s won every close game, then the Raiders are the team that’s lost every close game. All six of the Giants victories have been won by less than a single possession. As for the Raiders, five out of their six losses have come by a single possession. The disparity between these two (very average) teams is closer than their records would indicate.
And look. I’m not in love with the Raiders. They’ve lost some dumb games. They are simply a better option than the Giants in Week 10. If the ultimate goal of NFL Survivor Pools is to outlast players, you’ll gain a ton more win equity by playing the Raiders. They’re projected to be used by less than 5% of remaining NFL Survivor tickets, compared to an insane 40% usage rate of the Giants. Ask yourself — are the Giants eight times as likely to beat the Texans as the Raiders are to beat the Colts?
No, they are not.
If the usage projections are accurate, the numbers tell us to take a shot with the Raiders against a team that might be losing on purpose. It’s simply a better strategy than following the herd and picking the Giants.
Also read: Super Bowl 57 Odds | 2022 NFL MVP Odds
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