Some habits simply won’t die, even when threatened.
The Kansas City Chiefs and New England Patriots barely retained mind-boggling win streaks, the Dallas Cowboys continued a bizarre trend, and a change of venue for the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions impacted the fortunes of bettors and sportsbooks.
That combination provided a bigger story than the 7-6 ATS edge for favorites and the Under based on game-time odds at DraftKings. Those results feature some prominent late action and line changes.
The week concludes with the San Francisco 49ers visiting the Arizona Cardinals in Mexico City.
Kyler Murray is a game-time decision to start for the Cardinals. If he doesn’t, Colt McCoy will go. The Cardinals were leaning that way early Monday morning.
NFL Week 11 Key Takeaways
The Chiefs own a 25-game win streak in November and December. They also have a nine-game road moneyline streak against the Los Angeles Chargers. Travis Kelce’s touchdown with 31 seconds left and Kansas City’s 30-27 Sunday night triumph extended those trends.
A new number emerged for Kelce, always a popular yardage and scoring option with bettors. He surpassed the 100-yard mark for the 33rd time in his career, breaking a tie with Rob Gronkowski for the most such games by a tight end. Kelce also scored three times.
Chargers spread bettors gained solace by covering at +6.5. Los Angeles covered both times against Kansas City in losing efforts this year.
LA will try to rebound against the Cardinals and is an early 3-point favorite.
The Chiefs face a battered Los Angeles Rams team that may not have quarterback Matthew Stafford, who is in concussion protocol. The Rams are a 14.5-point underdog at Arrowhead and their season looks done.
Dagger No. 1: Bad Beat for Jets Bettors
The Patriots not only have their own big streak, but they form a separate category here. They are one of two games representing The Big One, a play that caused a multi-million-dollar shift in betting outcomes.
The Patriots stunned the New York Jets and their bettors, notching a 14th straight triumph and a gift cover over the Jets with a punt return TD on the next-to-last play of the game. The 84-yard burst by Marcus Jones was the only touchdown of a 10-3 game.
This was not the most serious form of a bad beat, but it was bad for anyone who had the Jets +3.5. This was the NFL’s first punt-return TD in 2022, a span that included 537 punts entering Week 11.
There was no guarantee the Jets would have covered +3.5 in overtime, but the game had generated no offensive touchdowns. A field goal was likely to decide this contest, until it wasn’t.
Rubbing salt in the wounds for bettors was the late block in the back on New England that could have been called on the play but wasn’t. Had it been whistled, New England would have lined up for a game-winning field goal and Jets +3.5 would have been good.
On the opposite side of the spectrum, New England bettors received an unexpected victory.
Here’s what that meant:
This was the 22nd straight meeting in which the Patriots were favored over the Jets, making it the second-longest head-to-head streak in the NFL since 1990, according to Caesars Sportsbook. (The Steelers were favored 27 straight times against the Bengals from 1991-2004. Ironically, the Bengals were favored against the Steelers on Sunday and covered the -4.5 spread in a 37-30 triumph.)
The Patriots’ 14-game win streak over the Jets has become the longest active winning streak by one team over another.
New England’s ability to extend that streak curtailed the Jets’ opportunity to build on another. The Jets had been the only NFL team to win and cover every road game this year. New York is 4-1 ATS on the road now.
The crazy ending rewarded the small majority of Caesars handle and a minority of DraftKings handle. Caesars reported 62% spread handle on the Patriots, while DraftKings had 37% of its handle on New England.
As for how ugly the game was, the Jets had a total of two yards in the second half. And they were still hanging around at the end.
Jets coach Robert Saleh called the team’s offense in the second half dog s—, and that may have been kind.
Dagger No. 2: Change of Venue Impacts Bills-Browns Bets
The Cleveland touchdown pass from Jacoby Brissett to Donovan Peoples-Jones with 19 seconds remaining had huge ramifications, as the Bills topped the Browns 31-23 in Detroit.
DraftKings honored tickets cast throughout the week, when Buffalo was -9.5 for a scheduled home game. The tickets remained good after the change of venue, with the blizzard in Buffalo forcing the game to be moved to Detroit.
Bettors who had Cleveland before the move thus notched a back-door cover at +9.5 or +8.5 with the late score. Those who took Cleveland at the final +7.5 on Sunday just missed.
Caesars took a different path. It refunded wagers from early in the week and set a new line of Buffalo -7.5 in the neutral-site game.
At Caesars, this was a Buffalo verdict.
It was also a Buffalo victory for PointsBet gamblers. The book listed the Bills -7.5 as its biggest liability of the week and the Chicago Bears +3 against the Atlanta Falcons as its second largest.
Chicago-Atlanta became a push, with the Bears losing to the Falcons 27-24. (Line shoppers created late value for Atlanta elsewhere. The Bears were one of the most heavily-backed teams all week at DraftKings, which moved the line to Atlanta -2 before kickoff).
Week 11 Props at PointsBet
The book paid out +120 for its most-bet prop, Justin Fields of the Chicago Bears as an anytime scorer.
Bettors were not able to convert the second-highest prop of Saquon Barkley to score.
The only other Top 5 prop the sportsbook had to pay out was Fields over 70.5 yards rushing at -105. He tallied 85.
PointsBet had a heavily-wagered prop on Cordarrelle Patterson to score for Atlanta. And Paterson did electrify the house with a 103-yard kickoff return for a touchdown. He also established an NFL record with a ninth-career kick-return score.
For betting purposes, however, it goes down as a special teams score. He did not tally on the prop.
Betting Market Knows Something About Vikings
The Vikings had the longest win streak in football — seven games — and were playing at home against the Dallas Cowboys. Yet they were never favored, going off at +1.5 on Sunday.
Books and bettors were all over this one. Dallas thumped the Vikings 40-3 in a game so one-sided that had it been a fight they would have stopped it.
It was apparent all week that the line and betting were tied to something.
And it may have been this: dating back to 2010, underdogs on a winning streak of seven games have now lost six straight games, according to Caesars Sportsbook.
Also read: Sharp bettors were all over Cowboys
The Vikings at least have a chance to regroup quickly, hosting the Patriots on Thursday night.
Eagles Gain Split Against Recent Trends
With Philadelphia starting 8-0 and then becoming 8-1 with a loss last Monday to Washington, another betting pattern came into focus Sunday.
From 2009 to 2021, 12 teams won their first eight or more games of the season. Six of those 12 teams were defeated in their next outing immediately following their first loss of the season and only four covered (4-7-1 ATS), according to Caesars.
The moneyline mark for this category thus went to 7-6 and the spread totals became 4-8-1 as the Eagles (-6.5) escaped with the 17-16 triumph over the Indianapolis Colts.
For Philadelphia, it was the first victory from a fourth-quarter deficit of 10 points since 2010.
For Indy, it was the second gut-wrenching 17-16 home setback in which it yielded the go-ahead touchdown in the final two minutes. The Colts lost in the same manner against Washington in Week 8.
A 50-yard missed field goal by the Colts’ Chase McLaughlin at the end of the third quarter loomed large late in the contest. The Colts led 13-3 when he missed it.
The rejuvenated Eagles marched right down the field and scored the touchdown that put them right back in it.
Rising Stock: Titans, Commanders, Lions, Bengals
Tennessee hosts the Bengals in Week 12. The Titans’ eight-game cover streak includes a 7-1 moneyline mark. Their 27-17 Thursday night victory at Lambeau Field captivated the public as an isolated game.
DraftKings bettors also seized upon a Thursday Night promo boosting Derrick Henry’s anytime touchdown price to +100 from -150 with a $25 limit. Henry tallied twice for good measure.
The Commanders extended their recent spread mark to 5-0-1, drubbing the Houston Texans, 23-10. Afterward, Taylor Heinicke was named the starting quarterback going forward, relegating off-season pickup Carson Wentz to the bench.
Heinicke’s first assignment as the named starter will be against the visiting Falcons in Week 12. Every team in the NFC East has a winning record.
The Detroit Lions are no joke. They own consecutive victories over the Green Bay Packers, Chicago Bears, and New York Giants. Two straight wins have come on the road. They manhandled the Giants, 31-18. They stuffed a good Giants team that entered at 7-2.
Some focus will go on Jamaal Williams and this three Detroit rushing touchdowns.
But there are two other hidden stories.
One is receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown. When he’s healthy, he stretches the field for the Lions and is an excellent receiver. He collected 76 yards Sunday with seven catches. He had a long gainer of 32 yards.
Playing at home Thursday against the Buffalo Bills, this team will garner respect. Buffalo -9 is the early point spread.
The second factor is the once-maligned Lions defense. In recent weeks it has:
- Notched two end-zone interceptions against the Packers.
- Delivered a Pick 6 to change the flow of the game they won against the Bears
- Produced three turnovers in the triumph over the Giants. Detroit, 4-6, is now on pace to surpass its projected win total of 6.5 at the books
The Bengals improved to two games over .500 for the first time this season. They turned the tables over the Steelers, who had beaten them in the season opener. Cincinnati outfought a stubborn Pittsburgh unit 37-30 and now faces an intense schedule that includes the Titans and Chiefs back-to-back.
There are rumblings that Ja’Marr Chase may return from his hip injury for the Bengals when they face the Titans. That forecast would appear to be rushing him back.
Running back Joe Mixon went down with a concussion during the Steelers game.
Joe Burrow has looked as confident as he has all year in recent games. That’s helping him find backup receivers.
Falling Stock: Packers
The Packers (+7) visit the Eagles in Week 11 with a mark of 4-7 and little hope for the post-season.
But there is Christian Watson.
Aaron Rodgers’ new favorite receiver generated odds he may not produce again in the game against the Titans. He tallied two touchdowns for Green Bay at a DraftKings price of +250.
Watson has scored the last four touchdowns for Green Bay. He has shown terrific hands, the ability to get open, and obtained a comfort level with Rodgers
FanDuel: Bengals-Steelers Go From Low to High
The Steelers-Bengals game was pegged as low scoring. At 39.5, it was the second-lowest total on the board.
But it became the highest scoring, with 67 points.
FanDuel bettors who backed it as the highest-scoring game of the week were rewarded at the sweet price of +1900. The final result included the Steelers’ highest point production of the season. And it packed 17 points into the final four minutes.
Stay current: Updated odds to win Super Bowl 57