We’re officially into the second half of the 2022 NFL schedule. Heading into NFL Week 11, we’ll continue to use the key concepts I outlined at the beginning of the season to make weekly betting picks. If you’ve been following our betting tips and strategies while using proper bankroll management, you should have a decent profit through ten weeks.
Last week, we took the Seahawks and Vikings for our third 50/50 week in a row. The Seahawks couldn’t stop the Buccaneers in Munich while the Vikings staged an epic comeback against the Bills. It was the NFL’s best regular season game in years. And, despite another push on our weekly bets, our concepts are working. We’re getting a ton of closing line value by betting the spreads at key numbers, and our strategies of targeting Unders and underdogs have been working nicely.
Let’s dive into some NFL Week 11 betting tips and strategies.
Betting Tips for NFL Week 11
Dallas Cowboys (-1) vs. Minnesota Vikings
One of the betting concepts I discussed in my pre-season NFL betting guide is to target games where the spread simply looks wrong. If a line looks strange and the team that’s favored should be an underdog or vice versa, it’s often profitable to bet against your own instincts.
We have a classic example here, with the 6-3 Dallas Cowboys being a short road favorite against the 8-1 Minnesota Vikings. You would think the Vikings should be favored here. Not only do they have a better record than the Cowboys, but they’re also now tied for the best record in the NFL after the Eagles were upset on Monday Night Football. Not only that, the Vikings are playing this game at home.
Yet, somehow the Cowboys are slight favorites? What gives?
NFL betting trends: The best teams against the spread
If there was a textbook written about sports betting with a section discussing the concept of “buy low/sell high” spots, this Week 11 matchup between the Cowboys and Vikings would be the photo they use at the beginning of the chapter.
On one side, we have the Dallas Cowboys, fresh off a choke job at Lambeau Field against a struggling Packers team. The Cowboys had Rodgers and company dead to rights and squandered a 14-point lead down the stretch. The loss broke the Packers’ five-game losing streak and put a serious dent in the Cowboys’ chances of catching the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East. Not a great look for Dallas, and just one more poor coaching performance by Mike McCarthy at Lambeau.
Bang! Ya got BURNT, McCarthy.
On the other side, we have the Minnesota Vikings, fresh off a historic 17-point comeback against the Buffalo Bills. Justin Jefferson made one of the all-time great catches in fourth quarter history to cut the Bills’ lead, and a Josh Allen fumble let the Vikings back in the game. The Bills never recovered and lost their second truly stupid game of the season.
If all had gone according to plan and the Cowboys beaten the Packers while the Vikings lost in Buffalo, the Cowboys would have been a much bigger favorite. Yet, because recency bias plays such a huge part in bookmaking, this line has been set much lower. Bettors will remember Jefferson’s catch forever, and rightfully so! But they’re quick to forget the other three and a half quarters of terrible Vikings football which saw the Bills run them over. The Cowboys gained more than 400 yards against the Packers’ top ten defensive unit but bettors will only remember the last-minute Aaron Rodgers comeback.
This is a huge letdown spot for the Vikings, fresh off a season-defining win. While the Cowboys will be incredibly fired up after letting one slip through their fingers at Lambeau. And if the Cowboys can beat a top-ten defense for 400+ yards, imagine what they can do against the Vikings’ defense which ranks… 29th.
I love the Cowboys as a short favorite and would be happy to play this up to -2.5. I’m keeping it small for now and will be watching this line closely, as it’s possible the line flips and we see the Vikings as a slight favorite by game time.
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Green Bay Packers (-2.5) vs. Tennessee Titans
Speaking of those Packers…
Thursday Night Football in Week 11 features a matchup between the Tennessee Titans and the all-of-a-sudden-relevant-again Green Bay Packers.
The Packers saved their season with a Week 10 win against the Cowboys on Sunday. Rodgers finally got some help from his receiving core as he and rookie Christian Watson connected for three touchdowns. It was the difference maker en route to an upset win at Lambeau.
The Titans, on the other hand, struggled against a lifeless Denver Broncos team. Derrick Henry was held to just 55 yards rushing while quarterback Ryan Tannehill barely managed 50% of his completions. Tannehill, having missed the last few weeks with a leg injury, struggled to find his form on the field. The quarterback was noticeably limping in spots and was nowhere as mobile as the team needs him to be.
This is a brutal spot for the Titans, going on the road, on a short week, to one of the toughest visiting stadiums in football. It’s hard to imagine Tannehill will have adequate rest to let his body prepare for this Thursday night game. Head Coach Mike Vrabel won’t risk a serious Tannehill injury, but he also can’t start backup Malik Wallis at Lambeau against a Packers team that might finally be clicking.
Look for the Packers, with a newly rejuvenated Aaron Rodgers, to find that missing gear and play football like it matters again. They should do just enough to hold off the Titans at home. I grabbed the Packers -1 on the look ahead line (humblebrag!) but would be comfortable betting this up to -3. Some sportsbooks are still showing -2.5, so be sure to grab that before we lose the key number of 3.