Nine games fill the NFL Week 11 early slate Sunday with all contests kicking off at 1:00 p.m. EST. The Bills-Colts game in Buffalo heads our list of previews.
Here are the odds and betting analysis for all nine games:
NFL · Mon (11/22) @ 8:16pm ET
|Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida|
The line opened at 6.5 and has settled at 7 as of Friday morning. Light rain is forecast, at roughly 7% at kickoff to a 20% chance late with temps in the low 40s.
Indianapolis Colts (5-5, 6-4 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (6-3, 5-4 ATS)
BetMGM Line: Bills -7 (49.5)
The skinny: Two teams that collided in the wild-card round last year tangle with Buffalo needing a win to stay in first place in the AFC East.
Facts: In last season’s playoff meeting, Buffalo prevailed 27-24 as a 6-point choice, with Indy QB Philip Rivers’ last heave as a pro fluttering way short of the goal-line on a Hail Mary.
Buffalo had five sacks and Diggs had 128 receiving yards that game. Since then, the Bills have had one other game with five sacks and Diggs only two 100-yard receiving games this year, but one came last week when he had 162 in a rout of the NY Jets.
The Colts are hitting the road for the the first time after a 2-1 homestand. Teams this season making their first trip after three weeks without leaving home have gone 4-1 SU/ATS, the only loss last week when Seattle fell to Green Bay.
Indy’s Jonathan Taylor has tied injured Derrick Henry for the league rushing lead with 937 yards and on 58 fewer carries. He averages 5.8 a rush. He’ll be going against the league’s best rush defense, which has allowed only one 100-yard runner, that being co-leader Henry, who had 143 in Week 6.
Analysis: It’s hard to believe, but maybe Indy’s Carson Wentz is the better choice here, largely because of the seven points. He’s got a solid line — Buffalo’s will be missing its right tackle due to COVID — and, of course, Taylor is the best RB in the league still on his feet.
Colts at Bills Pick
Colts 28, Bills 21
The line moved from Carolina -1.5 on look-ahead numbers to -3.5, despite Washington’s upset of defending league champion Tampa Bay last week.
Washington Football Team (3-6, 2-7 ATS) at Carolina Panthers (5-5, 5-5 ATS)
Caesars Sportsbook Line: Panthers -3.5 (43)
The skinny: The big news is that Cam Newson returns to the starting lineup for Carolina a week after being claimed off the scrap heap.
Facts: Newton and current Washington coach Ron Rivera teamed to lead Carolina to the Super Bowl six seasons ago. Speaking of teaming up, Taylor Heinicke also played for Rivera at Carolina before winding up with the Football Team.
Carolina’s 34-10 win at Arizona last week was its third this season as an underdog. It also makes the Panthers 4-1 with RB Christian McCaffrey in the lineup. The win as a 7-point dog was the biggest upset victory for second-year coach Matt Rhule.
In Week 16 last year, Carolina won in D.C. 20-13 as a 1-point choice in the final appearance of QB Dwayne Haskins for Washington. The former first-round draft pick had a 36.9 passer rating with two INTs and was promptly cut, and not just for his lousy play. He currently can be found at tne end of Pittsburgh’s bench.
Analysis: Newton is returning to the team he used to play for, but not the coaches or the system he was used to. Carolina probably will scale back the offense considerably, or he’ll just improvise. Even under the guidance of coach Bill Belichick in New England last year, Newton was only the league’s 28th-rated passer with eight TDs and 10 INTs. You don’t need to know much more.
Football Team at Panthers Pick
Football Team 27, Panthers 17
The Ravens opened as a 6-point favorite, but the line now has dropped as far as 4.5 points in some spots.
Baltimore Ravens (6-3, 3-6 ATS) at Chicago Bears (3-6, 4-5 ATS)
FanDuel Line: Ravens -4.5 (44.5)
The skinny: Chicago will be aiming to end a long skid against a Baltimore squad that was just embarrassed 22-10 in Miami on Thursday.
Facts: The Ravens are 0-5 ATS as a favorite of 6 points or more, going 3-2 SU, including last Thursday’s loss as an 8.5-point choice.
Since Chicago’s 20-9 upset win in Vegas in Week 5, it has lost four in a row behind rookie QB Justin Fields.
Baltimore’s Hollywood Brown caught only six of 13 targeted throws for 37 yards last week. He’s otherwise averaging 17.5 yards a reception. Not only that, but Baltimore struggled near the Miami goal line last week, scoring a TD on only one of four first-and-goal possessions.
An FYI: Ravens QB Lamar Jackson has missed late-week drills because of an illness.
Analysis: Since the Bears likely will still be without standout LB Khalil Mack (foot) and DE Akiem Hicks (ankle), there should be plenty of running room for Jackson, if he’s up to it, and whichever backfield mates aren’t limping. Chances are the Ravens won’t need to do much scoring thanks to a defense that should cause Fields all sort of problems with pressure.
Bears at Ravens Pick
Ravens 20, Bears 7
The line has climbed from an opening -10.5 on the off chance that Detroit QB Jared Goff can’t play.
Detroit Lions (0-8-1, 5-4 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (5-5, 5-5 ATS)
Caesars Sportsbook Line: Browns -11.5 (43.5)
The skinny: Battered Browns QB Baker Mayfield, who sat out a day of practice at midweek, is hopeful to hobble back on the field when Detroit comes to town.
Facts: Detroit, undefeated over the past two weeks (0-0-1, plus a bye) might be going with a first-time starter at QB, Tim Boyle, since starter Jared Goff is hampered by an oblique strain. He had only 77 net yards passing last week in a 16-16 tie in Pittsburgh. Boyle took first-team snaps this week in practice.
The Browns averaged 28.4 points their first five games, but in their past five have scored 17 or less four times, including last week’s 45-7 loss in New England.
Mayfield, who is dealing with shoulder, foot and knee issues, was knocked out of last week’s game. Coach Kevin Stefanski said he’s confident Mayfield will play.
Analysis: The Lions had 229 rushing yards in their tie with Pittsburgh last week. But if there’s a good chance Boyle will start at QB, no thanks.
Lions at Browns Pick
Browns 26, Lions 9
The line has climbed a point since it opened at 5.5 and now is at 6.5 across most books.
San Francisco 49ers (4-5, 3-6 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-7, 4-5 ATS)
PointsBet Line: 49ers -6.5 (45)
The skinny: The 49ers make their third East Coast trip of the season on the heels of a stirring 31-10 win over the Rams.
Facts: The 49ers get this week’s scheduling atomic wedgy by having to travel on short rest across three time zones after a Monday night game to play in the early Sunday time slot. That didn’t slow the Raiders in Week 2 this season, however, when they came off a MNF game and then won in Pittsburgh, 26-17, as a 5.5-point dog. Overall, teams off a MNF game are 12-4 ATS in 2021.
In that Monday night game, San Fran prevailed as a 3.5-point dog. But in its past five games as a favorite, San Fran has gone 1-4 SU.
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence was only 16-for-35 (no INTs/no TDs) in a spread-beating 23-17 loss at Indy last week. It was his second game this year below 50 percent, tying Chicago’s Justin Fields for most.
San Fran had 156 yards on 44 rushes last week, the fewest number of yards for a team with 40-plus carries this season.
Analysis: During the 49ers’ run to the Super Bowl two seasons ago, 49ers quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo was 17-for-27 for 208 yards in the NFC divisional playoffs and conference title game. The ground game generated 471 yards on 89 carries. That’s pretty much what happened last week vs. LA when Jimmy G threw only 19 times, completing 15, and the rushing attack dominated. Coach Kyle Shanahan would be wise to keep that winning recipe against a Jags’ rush defense that allowed the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor 5.5 yards per carry on 21 rushes.
49ers at Jaguars Pick
49ers 27, Jaguars 17
Green Bay Packers (8-2, 9-1 ATS) Minnesota Vikings (4-5, 5-4 ATS)
Line: Packers -2 (49.5)
The skinny: Green Bay can all but clinch the NFC North title before Thanksgiving with a victory over second-place Minnesota.
Facts: The Packers have a nine-game ATS winning streak. The last time anyone did that was two years ago, when the Chiefs closed out their Super Bowl season with nine in a row.
The underdog has won in the last four meetings in this series.
In last year’s season opener, Green Bay won at Minnesota 43-34 as a 3-point dog, getting 532 yards,which was headlined by Davante Adams’ 156 receiving yards on a career-high 14 catches. He’s tied for third on the receiver chart this year with 65 catches.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers came back from a 10-day quarantine (COVID) and had the second worst passer rating in his past 20 starts, yet the Packers still won, 17-0.
In Green Bay’s past three games, they held Arizona’s Kyler Murray and Seattle’s Russell Wilson to their worst passer rating of the year and KC’s Patrick Mahomes to his lowest completion percentage. Now they go against Vikings QB Kirk Cousins, who’s got the best TD/INT ratio in the league among starters (18/2).
Analysis: The Vikings are coming off a 27-20 upset victory in LA over the Chargers while playing without two standout membrs of the secondary, safety Harrison Smith (COVID) and Patrick Peterson (hamstring). Both are back this week and might not necessarily be facing Rodgers at his best, as he’s also dealing with a toe injury.
Packers at Vikings Pick
Vikings 27, Packers 17
It’s a surprise this line didn’t climb by more than a point after opening at Miami -2.5.
Miami Dolphins (3-7, 4-5-1 ATS) at NY Jets (2-7, 2-7 ATS)
DraftKings Line: Dolphins -3 (44.5)
The skinny: The Jets make another quarterback change as they hand the reins to veteran Joe Flacco for this game against Miami.
Facts: Flacco, acquired from the Eagles last month, started four games for the Jets last season in place of the injured Sam Darnold, one being a 24-0 loss to the Dolphins in Miami.
Flacco replaces Mike White, who was benched after throwing four INTs in the Jets’ 45-17 loss to Buffalo last week. Only Houston rookie Davis Mills has had that many in a game this year.
Miami has won two in a row since its seven-game losing streak, the stunner being last Thursday’s emphatic 22-10 home win over Baltimore.
Analysis: Miami’s QB situation is less than ideal, with starter Tua Tagovailoa dealing with an injured finger on his left (passing) hand and with backup Jacoby Brissett having a knee injury that drove him from the game last week. And with leading rusher Myles Gaskin averaging only 3.4 yards a carry, this offense could suffer — even against the defensively challenged Jets, who have rebounded from their two previous most lopsided losses with home wins over Tennessee and Cincinnati.
Dolphins at Jets Pick
Jets 21, Dolphins 17
The Saints opened as a 1-point favorite, but after the Eagles’ rout of Denver, it’s up to 2 in most places in favor of Philly.
New Orleans Saints (5-4, 5-4 ATS) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-6, 5-5 ATS)
DraftKings Line: Eagles -2 (43)
The skinny: The Eagles will be looking for their first home victory when the Saints come hobbling in.
Facts: Philadelphia is 0-4 at the Linc this season (1-3 ATS), joining Detroit, also 0-4, as the only winless teams on home turf.
New Orleans has lost two in a row since QB Trevor Siemian stepped in for the injured Jameis Winston, with two-point losses to Atlanta and Tennessee. But at least the Saints beat the spread vs. the Titans.
In last year’s meeting in Philly, the Eagles won 24-21 as a 6-point underdog in QB Jalen Hurts’ first start. He rushed for 106 yards and Miles Sanders had 115, one of two instances last year in which a team had two 100-yard rushers in a game.
Analysis: The Eagles have averaged 209 rushing yards a game the past three weeks, to climb to third in yards per game over the course of the season. They’ll be meeting head-on with the Saints No. 1 rush defense. In an embarrassment of riches, the Eagles have been doing their ground damage without leading rusher, Sanders, who just came off IR. The Saints, meanwhile, probably won’t have their leading rusher — and pass catcher — in Alvin Kamara (knee), who didn’t practice Thursday. And they’re without their top WR, Michael Thomas, for the year. Good luck, Siemian.
Saints at Eagles Pick
Eagles 29, Saints 14
There’s been little line movement for this presumed AFC South mismatch.
Houston Texans (1-8, 4-5 ATS) at Tennessee Titans (8-2, 7-3 ATS)
BetMGM Line: Titans -10.5 (44.5)
The skinny: The Titans will have to be wary of a letdown against Houston after playing five consecutive games against teams that made the playoffs last season.
Facts: The Texans, with first-team QB Tyrod Taylor starting for the second straight week, will be facing the AFC’s top team as only a 10-point underdog. They’ve been a heavier dog in five of their nine games this year, going 2-3 ATS.
Tennessee just completed the meatgrinder segment of its schedule, going 5-0 against Buffalo, Kansas City, Indianapolis, the LA Rams and New Orleans the past five weeks.
The game marks the Titans third in a row without two-time rushing champ Derrick Henry. In the first, they gained a total of only 194 yards, yet smeared the LA Rams 28-16. Then last week, at home, they edged the short-handed Saints 23-21. In those outings they had their two least-productive rushing outings, at 69 and 66 yards.
Analysis: The Titans have many reasons to be complacent heading into the home stretch in which the teams they’ll play have a cumulative 23-42-1 record. Plus, they’ve got a three-game lead in the AFC South and own the tiebreaker. And they have a one-game lead for the first seed in the conference, and the tiebreaker. The hunch is that Taylor, who was off to a splendid start to the season before injuring his hamstring, has had a chance to work on his timing during the team’s bye. The Texans, behind Taylor, give the Titans a scare.
Texans at Titans Pick
Titans 24, Texans 21
Last week: 4-10 ATS, 4-9-1 SU
Season total: 71-76-3 (.483) ATS; 89-60-1 (.597) SU