NFL Week 11 Odds: Cowboys Look To Extend Chiefs’ ATS Home Losing Streak In Late Sunday Slate

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Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire

The Dallas Cowboys travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs in the highest-profile game on the NFL Week 11 slate, one of three games in the 4 p.m. ET window.

Here are odds and betting analysis for the trio of games:

NY Giants vs TB Buccaneers Odds NFL Odds

NFL · Mon (11/22) @ 8:16pm ET

NY Giants at TB Buccaneers
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

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This game opened as a pick-’em, but Las Vegas’ big loss last week has tilted the odds toward the Bengals by 1 point across the boards.

Cincinnati Bengals (5-4, 4-5 ATS) at Las Vegas Raiders (5-4, 5-4 ATS)

Time: 4:05 EST

DraftKings Line: Bengals -1 (50.5)

The skinny: A pair of teams that were front-runners in their division after Week 7 enter this game on two-game losing streaks and in danger of falling into last place with a loss.

Facts: When these squads met in the pre-Joe Burrow days in 2019, the Raiders won in Oakland 17-10 as a 13-point favorite. They haven’t been that big a favorite since.

The Bengals, who were roughed up by Cleveland 41-16 two weeks ago, just after their staggering 34-31 loss to the Jets, are coming off a bye. However, having a long rest doesn’t equate to having success the next week. Teams off a bye and facing a team that played the week before are 3-8-1 ATS this season.

After this fourth road game in five outings for the Bengals, they will play only one other away game until the last day of the season.

The Raiders are lauded for having one of the highest pressure rates on QBs this season, yet didn’t have a sack of KC’s Patrick Mahomes last week. He threw 51 times in a 41-14 victory.

Analysis: The Bengals’ injury situation is too troubling to warrant taking the visitor here. The team has struggled at guard, repeatedly benching a guy for another and another all season long. And it’s worse at linebacker, where play has been below par, and that was before two starters got hurt.

Vegas quarterback Derek Carr and TE Darren Waller can’t help but be able to exploit the visitors’ pass-coverage problems. And even a little bit of help in the running game will aid their cause.

Bengals at Raiders Pick

Raiders 31, Bengals 21

NY Giants vs TB Buccaneers Odds NFL Odds

NFL · Mon (11/22) @ 8:16pm ET

NY Giants at TB Buccaneers
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

This line has held steady at 2.5 points in favor of K.C.

Dallas Cowboys (7-2, 8-1 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (6-4, 3-7 ATS)

Time: 4:25 p.m.

FanDuel Line: Chiefs by 2.5 (56)

The skinny: This is the marquee game of the week, with both division-leading teams coming off rousing wins in Week 10.

Facts: The over/under number, as it stands, is the third-highest for a game this year, and that makes sense considering the Cowboys have the league’s top-ranked offense and K.C.’s is fourth. The two over/under numbers higher than this also involved the Chiefs, one eventually going over, the other under.

With Dallas officials saying offensive tackle Tyron Smith has a good shot to return after missing two games (ankle), this could be the first time in 2021 that the entire front wall starts a game this season.

The Chiefs are opening a three-game homestand, wrapped around a bye next week. But that’s not necessarily good for Chiefs bettors, since K.C. is 0-5 ATS at Arrowhead Stadium this season.

Last week, for the second time this year, K.C. cleared 40 points without benefiting from a short field or a special teams/defensive TD. No other team has done that even once.

The Cowboys’ 43-3 victory over visiting Atlanta last week tied for the second-most lopsided victory for a team this year. Two other teams with 40-plus-point wins earned road victories the next week as underdogs.

Analysis: Dallas and K.C. looked unbeatable in Week 10, but in the case of the Chiefs, reports were that the Raiders secondary allowed receivers to roam free. Dallas won’t let that happen with all of its ballhawks. And although K.C.’s defense has been warmly applauded for giving up an average of only 12 points a game their past three outings, one was against the Giants and another against a Packers team without Aaron Rodgers. One more thing: K.C. has the second-lowest sack rate in the league and could be going against a Cowboys line at full strength.

Cowboys at Chiefs Pick

Cowboys 31, Chiefs 23

NY Giants vs TB Buccaneers Odds NFL Odds

NFL · Mon (11/22) @ 8:16pm ET

NY Giants at TB Buccaneers
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

The Cardinals opened as a 1-point pick, but it’s up to 2.5 across the board.

Arizona Cardinals (8-2, 7-3 ATS) at Seattle Seahawks (3-6, 5-4 ATS)

Time: 4:25 p.m. EST

Caesars Sportsbook Line: Cardinals -2.5 (48)

The skinny: Just like last week and the week before, the big question is whether Arizona QB Kyler Murray (high ankle sprain) will guide the NFC West-leading Cardinals or grab a seat on the sideline again.

Facts: It seems Murray has been saying he’s “pretty close” to returning the past three weeks, but coach Kliff Kingsbury said he wants his QB to be at 100 percent or else that’s not happening.

Before Seattle QB Russell Wilson injured the middle finger on his passing hand and needed surgery, he had 10 TD passes and one INT. Last week in his speedy return at Green Bay, he tossed two interceptions and got shut out for the first time in his career. With a wind chill in the high 20s, maybe he picked the wrong place to test out that injured digit.

The Cardinals haven’t been a favorite in Seattle since 2011. But Arizona still has won five of the past eight games there.

Analysis: The 49ers showed in Monday night’s 31-10 win over the Rams how a desperate team can perform when facing a supposedly superior foe. The Seahawks are in much the same situation and will be looking to keep their withering playoff hopes alive against a team that could well be giving its starting quarterback another week’s rest preceding its Thanksgiving week bye. And that goes for standout Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins (hamstring), too. The guess here is that QB Colt McCoy gets another start a week after leading Arizona to a 34-10 home loss vs. Carolina.

Cardinals at Seahawks Pick

Seahawks 17, Cardinals 13

Last week: 4-10 ATS, 4-9-1 SU
Season total: 71-76-3 (.483) ATS; 89-60-1 (.597) SU

Also read: NFL Week 11 sportsbook report | NFL Week 11 early line moves

About the Author

Bob Christ

Bob Christ, based in New Mexico, has been a gaming writer (primarily the NFL) for almost four decades, with his work appearing in publications/websites across North America. He's a big fan of the Arkansas Razorbacks, Philadelphia's Eagles and Phillies, and inexplicably the NHL's Winnipeg Jets.

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