NFL Week 11 Betting Picks & Predictions: Two Underdogs and One Total

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Fans were treated to one of the most exciting weekends of football in Week 10, including the year’s new frontrunner for Game of the Year with the Vikings’ thrilling overtime win over the Bills. 

After the Bucs held off the Seahawks in Germany to start the day, last-minute heroics became the theme with close games in Chicago, Las Vegas, and Green Bay. Washington finished off the week with an upset over the undefeated Philadelphia Eagles.

In our NFL Week 11 betting picks and predictions, we look at one inter-conference total and how the Bills and Vikings both respond this week to Sunday’s miracle in Orchard Park.

Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (Under 43.5)

The Baltimore Ravens come out of their bye flying high, winners of four of their last five with a one-game lead in the AFC North. Hosting the 3-7 Carolina Panthers this week, Baltimore enters as a double-digit favorite.

CAR Panthers vs BAL Ravens Odds NFL Odds

NFL · Sun (11/20) @ 1:03pm ET

CAR Panthers at BAL Ravens
M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, Maryland

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In seven games as a favorite this season, the Under has gone 5-2 in Ravens games. With the third-best turnover differential in the league, the 6-3 Ravens have depended on protecting the ball and creating turnovers. 

Behind dual-threat quarterback Lamar Jackson, the Ravens are averaging the second-most rushing yards per game in the league. Facing the league’s seventh-worst rush defense in Carolina, Baltimore will dominate the time of possession and command their way to a comfortable, low-scoring win.

Carolina got back into the win column last Thursday, defeating the Atlanta Falcons, 25-15. Baker Mayfield is expected to return to the starting role at quarterback after PJ Walker suffered a high ankle sprain. Mayfield, 1-4 in five games to start the season, struggled mightily. The former Brown has thrown four touchdowns and four interceptions and posted the worst total QBR of all starting quarterbacks this season.

The Ravens’ defense started the season with some rough games, but they have tightened up in recent weeks. Buffed by the midseason trade for linebacker Roquan Smith, the Ravens’ defense ranks second in takeaways, fourth in sacks, and is allowing the third-fewest rushing yards per game.

A stingy Ravens rush defense will neutralize the Panthers’ best chances to get on the board. Despite trading away All-Pro running back Christian McCaffery, the Panthers rushed for a season-high 232 yards against the Falcons. Behind running back D’Onta Foreman, the ground game was pivotal to their upset over Atlanta.

With a stalling rushing attack, Mayfield will be forced to pass against a ball-hawking defense that has picked off opposing quarterbacks nine times this season. The Ravens will climb to a quick lead and bury the Panthers, making the Under one of the best bets of NFL Week 11.

Read: NFL Week 11 betting tips and strategies

Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings looked dead in the water last week, trailing the Bills 27-10 in the last minutes of the third quarter. After three Josh Allen turnovers, overtime, and one of the greatest catches of the season, the Vikings somehow left Western New York the winner.

DAL Cowboys vs MIN Vikings Odds NFL Odds

NFL · Sun (11/20) @ 4:25pm ET

DAL Cowboys at MIN Vikings
U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota

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Minnesota will get another huge test this week with the 6-3 Cowboys coming to Minneapolis. As a short-road favorite, the Cowboys are one of our best NFL Week 11 picks.

Despite their 7-1 record before the Bills game, the Vikings were seen as a paper tiger that wasn’t that good. Their average scoring margin this season is only 3.9 and the Vikings wins over Washington, Chicago, New Orleans, and Detroit all came down to the wire.

Dallas was in the opposite position of Minnesota last week, choking away a two-score lead late — breaking a Cowboys record of 195-straight wins when leading by at least 14 in the fourth quarter. Two late Dak Prescott interceptions helped the Packers climb back in, but the Minnesota defense — allowing the fourth-most passing yards per game — will be easier to attack than Green Bay’s third-ranked unit.

Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson is featured in our NFL Week 11 betting picks & predictions: two underdogs and one total. (AP Photo/ Jeffrey T. Barnes)

Receiver CeeDee Lamb caught 11 balls for 150 yards and two touchdowns for Dallas last week, but it’s hard to see anyone but Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson as the best wideout on the field. He logged 193 yards for one score off 10 catches and this matchup may come down to which defense slows down the opposing aerial game the most.

The Dallas defense is allowing the fourth-fewest passing yards and a lot of that can be accredited to their league-leading 35 sacks. Both teams are among the league’s best at limiting turnovers and creating them on defense, however, the Vikings depended upon an exorbitant amount of luck and Bills miscues to win last week. 

These teams are both bound for the playoffs and a win here for either may be important for seeding down the stretch. Despite only one of these teams winning its hard-fought overtime game last week, the edge goes to the better defense with the more experienced coaching staff.

The Cowboys have covered in both games this season following a loss and are 6-3 ATS on the season. One of the best bets of NFL Week 11, the Cowboys bounce back Sunday with a huge road win over the Minnesota Vikings.

Look ahead: NFL Week 12 odds | 2023 NFL playoffs odds

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (First Half -4)

After starting the season on a tear as the Super Bowl favorite, Buffalo fell back down to Earth with back-to-back losses to the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings. With the surging Jets and Dolphins tied or ahead of them in the division, the Bills need a win to keep up in a crowded AFC.

CLE Browns vs BUF Bills Odds NFL Odds

NFL · Sun (11/20) @ 1:02pm ET

CLE Browns at BUF Bills
Bills Stadium, Orchard Park, New York

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Quarterback Josh Allen has struggled lately, throwing six interceptions over the last three games including the game-ender in overtime last week against Minnesota. Allen has reached NFL stardom due to his aggressive playstyle pushing the ball downfield, but the quarterback’s overconfidence has been his Achilles heel of late.  

Expect Allen to step back, slow down, and take what the defense is giving him against a middle-of-the-road Browns team. The Bills faced a similar midseason slump last season, including a 9-6 loss to the Jaguars, and they managed then to quickly bounce back into the upper echelon of NFL elite.

Although they dropped their last two games, the Bills went into halftime in both games with a lead: a 4-point difference against the Jets and 14 points against Minnesota.

During the season, the Bills have been highly successful scoring in the first half. Buffalo is averaging the second-most points in the first half this season and is faring even better at home, where their 24-point average is over three points higher than second-place Cincinnati.

Cleveland falls somewhere in the middle tier of NFL teams this season, treading water until Deshaun Watson makes his Browns debut in December. At 3-6, however, playoffs appear a forlorn hope. They were trounced by Miami last week, 39-17, and are losers of five of their last six. 

Buffalo circles the wagons this week after two-straight losses and continues their first-half dominance. One of NFL Week 11’s best bets, take the Bills to jump out early at home against Cleveland.

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About the Author
Ken Bates

Ken Bates

Ken Bates is a contributor to Gaming Today. With years of experience in the sports betting industry, he’s covered several sports and is always on the lookout for an angle to bet. He resides in upstate New York and, as difficult as it may sometimes be, roots for the Jets, Mets, and Islanders.

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