NFL Week 11 player props are live, and we have a get-rich-quick scheme going on. Not actually, but there is a +7000 bet below that isn’t a parlay and that I’ve already bet. Rarely do writers and handicappers who publish their own records take stabs on these longshots publicly. If you are looking for the best value player prop picks of Week 11, you have come to the right place.
On the season, I am 50-42, after a weird week that saw Cordarrelle Patterson and other Falcons starters benched after the first half of their blowout loss in Dallas. The negative game script and flat-out lack of competitiveness from Atlanta cost us around 14 units of profit.
Below we have three plus-money player prop picks and eight total bets to help make back some lost profits. Lines were available as of Friday.
NFL Week 11 Player Props
Ceedee Lamb Over 5.5 Receptions +100 (DraftKings)
Welcome to the slot, Ceedee Lamb! Michael Gallup plays on the outside now, moving Lamb into the slot receiver role, where he is more likely to get dump-off passes, slants, and red zone targets. In a potential shootout against bad Chiefs secondary, a Ceedee Lamb blowup might be incoming!
Ceedee Lamb To Score 3+ Touchdowns +7000 (FanDuel)
I know, I’m crazy, but a guy can dream, right? Lamb is the best offensive player on either team, and this is the biggest projected total in the NFL this week. He had two touchdowns last week, so 7o-to-1 odds on this prop are awfully enticing. Moreover, there is a massive disagreement within the market, as other books price this at just +2800, suggesting excellent value at this larger number …. Tail if you dare.
https://twitter.com/erichterrr/status/1461742071363088388
Jonathan Taylor Over 16.5 Rushing Attempts -105 (BetMGM)
Back to reality here, Jonathan Taylor is the best running back in the league right now. He is the motor that makes the Colts offense run and will be fed the ball around 20 times. He has surpassed this number of carries in three of his last four games. The Colts are a live underdog at the Bills this week, despite the improved Buffalo run defense. Remember, we are betting on volume here, not yardage.
Darren Waller Under 6.5 Receptions -150 (DraftKings)
No one likes laying juice like this, so for that I apologize, but perhaps this is a parlay builder, too? Darren Waller’s projection of grabbing seven passes is an unfair expectation. He has only two games with seven or more catches this year. On the season, he is averaging under five catches per game.
Tyrod Taylor Under 34.5 Passing Attempts -110 (BetMGM)
He confusingly threw the ball over 40 times last week in his return. This is not how you win with him. The Texans coaches should know that and be prepared to feed David Johnson, their listed starting running back. More on him here…
David Johnson Over 14.5 Rushing Yards -105 (DraftKings)
This line isn’t a mistake, because Johnson has hit this number only once in his past three games. However, all of those games featured Mark Ingram as Houston’s primary running back. Ingram is now in New Orleans, and in comes Johnson, who is expected to be the starter while Rex Burkhead and Phillip Lindsay work mostly on passing downs. None of these running backs build much confidence, but 14.5 yards with a bigger workload is very reasonable.
Trevor Lawrence Over 15.5 Rushing Yards -115 (PointsBet)
Trevor Lawrence has been up and down this year, and we are 1-1 riding his rushing props this year. At 15.5 yards, the number here is just too attainable to resist. Lawrence will have opportunities to get there on just two carries, and he averages over four carries per game, so we love this number
Justin Fields Over 7.5 Rushing Attempts +110 (DraftKings)
Justin Fields loves to run the ball now! He has surpassed 7.5 rushes in each of his last three games. At plus-money, this is an excellent bet. I’m also seeing solid value on ‘over’ 34.5 rushing yards. He could reach Jalen Hurts-level rushing stats very shortly if he keeps this up. Below, I compare the two, and I offer this suggestion to the Bears coach: Commit to running Matt Nagy, you know you want to!
Jalen Hurts Last 4 Games Rushing Justin Fields Last 4 Games Rushing
13 attempts for 55 yards 8 attempts for 45 yards
10 attempts for 62 yards 10 attempts for 103 yards — 1 touchdown
7 attempts for 71 yards 8 attempts for 38 yards
13 attempts for 61 yards 6 attempts for 43 yards
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